Money in monetary policy design: monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Money, Quantity Theory, European Central Bank, Policy Under Uncertaint

Comparing nuclear power trajectories in Germany and the UK: from ‘regimes' to ‘democracies’ in sociotechnical transitions and Discontinuities

This paper focuses on arguably the single most striking contrast in contemporary major energy politics in Europe (and even the developed world as a whole): the starkly differing civil nuclear policies of Germany and the UK. Germany is seeking entirely to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Yet the UK advocates a ‘nuclear renaissance’, promoting the most ambitious new nuclear construction programme in Western Europe.Here,this paper poses a simple yet quite fundamental question: what are the particular divergent conditions most strongly implicated in the contrasting developments in these two countries. With nuclear playing such an iconic role in historical discussions over technological continuity and transformation, answering this may assist in wider understandings of sociotechnical incumbency and discontinuity in the burgeoning field of‘sustainability transitions’. To this end, an ‘abductive’ approach is taken: deploying nine potentially relevant criteria for understanding the different directions pursued in Germany and the UK. Together constituted by 30 parameters spanning literatures related to socio-technical regimes in general as well as nuclear technology in particular, the criteria are divided into those that are ‘internal’ and ‘external’ to the ‘focal regime configuration’ of nuclear power and associated ‘challenger technologies’ like renewables. It is ‘internal’ criteria that are emphasised in conventional sociotechnical regime theory, with ‘external’ criteria relatively less well explored. Asking under each criterion whether attempted discontinuation of nuclear power would be more likely in Germany or the UK, a clear picture emerges. ‘Internal’ criteria suggest attempted nuclear discontinuation should be more likely in the UK than in Germany– the reverse of what is occurring. ‘External’ criteria are more aligned with observed dynamics –especially those relating to military nuclear commitments and broader ‘qualities of democracy’. Despite many differences of framing concerning exactly what constitutes ‘democracy’, a rich political science literature on this point is unanimous in characterising Germany more positively than the UK. Although based only on a single case,a potentially important question is nonetheless raised as to whether sociotechnical regime theory might usefully give greater attention to the general importance of various aspects of democracy in constituting conditions for significant technological discontinuities and transformations. If so, the policy implications are significant. A number of important areas are identified for future research, including the roles of diverse understandings and specific aspects of democracy and the particular relevance of military nuclear commitments– whose under-discussion in civil nuclear policy literatures raises its own questions of democratic accountability

Search for the Rare Decay B0_s -> phi mu^+ mu- with the D0 Detector

We present a search for the flavor-changing neutral current decay B0_s -> phi mu+ mu- using about 0.45 fb^-1 of data collected in p \bar p collisions at sqrt{s} =1.96 TeV with the D{\O}detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We find an upper limit on the branching ratio of this decay normalized to B0_s -> J/psi phi of B(B0_s -> phi mu+ mu-)/B(B0_s -> J/psi phi) < 4.4\times 10^{-3} at the 95% C.L. Using the central value of the world average branching fraction of B0_s -> J/psi phi, the limit corresponds to B(B0_s -> phi mu+ mu-) < 4.1 \times 10^{-6} at the 95% C.L., the most stringent upper bound to date.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, LaTeX, to be submitted to Physical Review Letter

Fernando SEBASTIÁN AGUILAR, Nueva Evangelización. Fe, cultura y política en la España de hoy, Ed. Encuentro, Madrid 1991, 302 pp. [RECENSIÓN]

\u3cp\u3eThe most recent JET campaign has focused on characterizing operation with the «ITER-like» wall. One of the questions that needed to be answered is whether the auxiliary heating methods do not lead to unacceptably high levels of impurity influx, preventing fusion-relevant operation. In view of its high single pass absorption, hydrogen minority fundamental cyclotron heating in a deuterium plasma was chosen as the reference wave heating scheme in the ion cyclotron domain of frequencies. The present paper discusses the plasma behavior as a function of the minority concentration X[H] in L-mode with up to 4MW of RF power. It was found that the tungsten concentration decreases by a factor of 4 when the minority concentration is increased from X[H] ≈ 5% to X[H] % 20% and that it remains at a similar level when X[H] is further increased to 30%; a monotonic decrease in Beryllium emission is simultaneously observed. The radiated power drops by a factor of 2 and reaches a minimum at X[H] ≈ 20%. It is discussed that poor single pass absorption at too high minority concentrations ultimately tailors the avoidance of the RF induced impurity influx. The edge density being different for different minority concentrations, it is argued that the impact ICRH has on the fate of heavy ions is not only a result of core (wave and transport) physics but also of edge dynamics and fueling.\u3c/p\u3

Characterization of ion cyclotron resonance heating in presence of the ITER-like wall in JET

Carbon is not compatible with the long term use required for plasma facing components in future fusion reactors of the tokamak type e.g. from the point of view of erosion and tritium retention.Wand Be were chosen as plasma facing materials for ITER. JET was equipped with beryllium (as opposed to C or C-coated) walls in the shutdown of 2010-2011. To sustain the very high heat loads inevitably falling on it and thus excluding the use of metals with a low melting point such as Be and in spite of the fact that its radiation is significant because of its large Z, a Tungsten (W) orW-coated divertor was simultaneously installed. The recent JET campaign has focused on characterizing high density high temperature operation with this "ITER-like" wall (ILW). One of the questions that needed to be answered is whether the auxiliary heating methods do not lead to unacceptable high levels of impurity influx preventing fusion-relevant operation. This paper briefly reports on two aspects of the present understanding of ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) or radio frequency (RF) heating in presence of the ILW: ICRH-specific impurity influx and heating performance. They are complementing related discussions on heat loads, and on plasmaWcontent and possible sources. A much more extensive study will be published elsewhere

Validation Study of Existing Gene Expression Signatures for Anti-TNF Treatment in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

So far, there are no means of identifying rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients who will fail to respond to tumour necrosis factor blocking agents (anti-TNF), prior to treatment. We set out to validate eight previously reported gene expression signatures predicting therapy outcome. Genome-wide expression profiling using Affymetrix GeneChip Exon 1.0 ST arrays was performed on RNA isolated from whole blood of 42 RA patients starting treatment with infliximab or adalimumab. Clinical response according to EULAR criteria was determined at week 14 of therapy. Genes that have been reported to be associated with anti-TNF treatment were extracted from our dataset. K-means partition clustering was performed to assess the predictive value of the gene-sets. We performed a hypothesis-driven analysis of the dataset using eight existing gene sets predictive of anti-TNF treatment outcome. The set that performed best reached a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 61%, for classifying the patients in the current study. We successfully validated one of eight previously reported predictive expression profile. This replicated expression signature is a good starting point for developing a prediction model for anti-TNF treatment outcome that can be used in a daily clinical setting. Our results confirm that gene expression profiling prior to treatment is a useful tool to predict anti-TNF (non) response

Design and analysis of cross vaults along history

The history of cross vaults began almost 2,000 years ago with a widespread use during the Middle Ages and Renaissance, becoming nowadays one of the most diffused and fascinating structural typologies of the European building cultural heritage. However, conversely to the undeniable excellence achieved by the ancient masons, the structural behavior of these elements is still at the center of the scientific debate. In this regard, with the aim of reviewing the knowledge on this subject as a concise and valuable support for researchers involved in conservation of historical buildings, with a focus on design rules and structural analysis, the present study firstly introduces the cross vaults from a historical perspective, by describing the evolution of the main geometrical shapes together with basic practical rules used to size them. Then, the article deals with the subsequent advancements in structural analysis methods of vaults, until the development of modern limit analysis.This work was partially carried out under the program "Dipartimento di Protezione Civile - Consorzio RELUIS", signed on 2013-12-27.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Active liquid crystal tuning of metallic nanoantenna enhanced light emission from colloidal quantum dots

A system comprising an aluminum nanoantenna array on top of a luminescent colloidal quantum dot waveguide and covered by a thermotropic liquid crystal (LC) is introduced. By heating the LC above its critical temperature, we demonstrate that the concomitant refractive index change modifies the hybrid plasmonic-photonic resonances in the system. This enables active control of the spectrum and directionality of the narrow-band (similar to 6 nm) enhancement of quantum dot photoluminescence by the metallic nanoantennas