Landscape Epidemiology and Control of Pathogens with Cryptic and Long-Distance Dispersal: Sudden Oak Death in Northern Californian Forests

Exotic pathogens and pests threaten ecosystem service, biodiversity, and crop security globally. If an invasive agent can disperse asymptomatically over long distances, multiple spatial and temporal scales interplay, making identification of effective strategies to regulate, monitor, and control disease extremely difficult. The management of outbreaks is also challenged by limited data on the actual area infested and the dynamics of spatial spread, due to financial, technological, or social constraints. We examine principles of landscape epidemiology important in designing policy to prevent or slow invasion by such organisms, and use Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death, to illustrate how shortfalls in their understanding can render management applications inappropriate. This pathogen has invaded forests in coastal California, USA, and an isolated but fast-growing epidemic focus in northern California (Humboldt County) has the potential for extensive spread. The risk of spread is enhanced by the pathogen's generalist nature and survival. Additionally, the extent of cryptic infection is unknown due to limited surveying resources and access to private land. Here, we use an epidemiological model for transmission in heterogeneous landscapes and Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inference to estimate dispersal and life-cycle parameters of P. ramorum and forecast the distribution of infection and speed of the epidemic front in Humboldt County. We assess the viability of management options for containing the pathogen's northern spread and local impacts. Implementing a stand-alone host-free “barrier” had limited efficacy due to long-distance dispersal, but combining curative with preventive treatments ahead of the front reduced local damage and contained spread. While the large size of this focus makes effective control expensive, early synchronous treatment in newly-identified disease foci should be more cost-effective. We show how the successful management of forest ecosystems depends on estimating the spatial scales of invasion and treatment of pathogens and pests with cryptic long-distance dispersal

Lessons Learned from a Decade of Sudden Oak Death in California: Evaluating Local Management

Sudden Oak Death has been impacting California’s coastal forests for more than a decade. In that time, and in the absence of a centrally organized and coordinated set of mandatory management actions for this disease in California’s wildlands and open spaces, many local communities have initiated their own management programs. We present five case studies to explore how local-level management has attempted to control this disease. From these case studies, we glean three lessons: connections count, scale matters, and building capacity is crucial. These lessons may help management, research, and education planning for future pest and disease outbreaks

Disease and the Dynamics of Food Webs

What models and statistical tools can best help us assess how ecosystems respond to the impact of multiple factors, such as disease, predation, fire, and rain

Vegetation‐hydrology dynamics in complex terrain of semiarid areas: 2. Energy‐water controls of vegetation spatiotemporal dynamics and topographic niches of favorability

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95632/1/wrcr11124.pd

Altitudinal variation in soil organic carbon stock in coniferous subtropical and broadleaf temperate forests in Garhwal Himalaya

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Himalayan zones, with dense forest vegetation, cover a fifth part of India and store a third part of the country reserves of soil organic carbon (SOC). However, the details of altitudinal distribution of these carbon stocks, which are vulnerable to forest management and climate change impacts, are not well known.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This article reports the results of measuring the stocks of SOC along altitudinal gradients. The study was carried out in the coniferous subtropical and broadleaf temperate forests of Garhwal Himalaya. The stocks of SOC were found to be decreasing with altitude: from 185.6 to 160.8 t C ha^-1and from 141.6 to 124.8 t C ha^-1in temperature (<it>Quercus leucotrichophora</it>) and subtropical (<it>Pinus roxburghii</it>) forests, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study lead to conclusion that the ability of soil to stabilize soil organic matter depends negatively on altitude and call for comprehensive theoretical explanation</p

Risk-based management of invading plant disease

- Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. - We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. - Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. - Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time.Part of this work was funded by the USDA-APHIS Farm Bill; C.A.G. acknowledges support from USDA-APHIS

Vegetation‐hydrology dynamics in complex terrain of semiarid areas: 1. A mechanistic approach to modeling dynamic feedbacks

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95225/1/wrcr11121.pd

Effects of UV photodegradation on subsequent microbial decomposition of Bromus diandrus litter

Aims: Photodegradation acts as a direct contributor to litter decomposition in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. However, its indirect effects are unclear. Does photodegradation condition litter for subsequent microbial decomposition? Methods: We conditioned litter of Bromus diandrus with ambient or reduced ultraviolet (UV) radiation and three periods of exposure (summer, summer-winter, and 1&nbsp;year) in a California annual grassland. We then investigated how field UV exposure affected subsequent microbial decomposition of litter using a controlled laboratory incubation. Results: Surprisingly, microbial decomposition was decreased by UV radiation when the exposure occurred during summer but was unaffected by UV treatment for exposure longer than summer. Litter lignin concentrations did not explain these results, as they were not affected by UV radiation for any of the exposure periods. However, for the summer period exposure, UV radiation was associated with decreased litter N concentration, which corresponded with lowered subsequent microbial activity. Conclusions: Our results suggest a new mechanism through which photodegradation interacts with litter microbial decomposition: photodegradation may decrease microbial decomposition through inhibition of microbial N immobilization. Our results imply that solar radiation can interact with litter N cycling dynamics to influence litter decomposition processes