Modelling estuarine biogeochemical dynamics: from the local to the global scale

Estuaries act as strong carbon and nutrient filters and are relevant contributors to the atmospheric CO2 budget. They thus play an important, yet poorly constrained, role for global biogeochemical cycles and climate. This manuscript reviews recent developments in the modelling of estuarine biogeochemical dynamics. The first part provides an overview of the dominant physical and biogeochemical processes that control the transformations and fluxes of carbon and nutrients along the estuarine gradient. It highlights the tight links between estuarine geometry, hydrodynamics and scalar transport, as well as the role of transient and nonlinear dynamics. The most important biogeochemical processes are then discussed in the context of key biogeochemical indicators such as the net ecosystem metabolism (NEM), air–water CO2 fluxes, nutrient-filtering capacities and element budgets. In the second part of the paper, we illustrate, on the basis of local estuarine modelling studies, the power of reaction-transport models (RTMs) in understanding and quantifying estuarine biogeochemical dynamics. We show how a combination of RTM and high-resolution data can help disentangle the complex process interplay, which underlies the estuarine NEM, carbon and nutrient fluxes, and how such approaches can provide integrated assessments of the air–water CO2 fluxes along river–estuary–coastal zone continua. In addition, trends in estuarine biogeochemical dynamics across estuarine geometries and environmental scenario are explored, and the results are discussed in the context of improving the modelling of estuarine carbon and CO2 dynamics at regional and global scales

Predicting Future Trends of Terrestrial Dissolved Organic Carbon Transport to Global River Systems

A fraction of CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is exported as organic carbon (C) through the terrestrial-aquatic continuum. This translocated C plays a significant role in the terrestrial C balance; however, obtaining global assessments remains challenging due to the predominant reliance on empirical approaches. Leaching of dissolved organic C (DOC) from soils to rivers represents an important fraction of this C export and is assumed to drive a large proportion of the net-heterotrophy of river systems and the related CO2 emissions. Using the model JULES-DOCM, we projected DOC leaching trends over the 21st century based on three scenarios with high (RCP 2.6), intermediate (RCP 4.5), and low (RCP 8.5) climate mitigation efforts. The RCP 8.5 scenario led to the largest DOC leaching increase of +42% to 395 Tg C yr−1 by 2100. In comparison, RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 led to increases of 10% and 21%, respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the sub-tropical zone showed the highest relative increase of 50% above current levels. In the boreal and tropical zones, the simulations revealed similar increases of 48% and 41%, respectively. However, given the pre-eminence of the tropics in DOC leaching, the absolute increment is markedly substantial from this region (+59 Tg C yr−1). The temperate zone displayed the lowest relative increase with 35%. Our analysis identified the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and its fertilizing effect on terrestrial NPP as the main reason for the future increase in DOC leaching

Increased nitrous oxide emissions from global lakes and reservoirs since the pre-industrial era

Lentic systems (lakes and reservoirs) are emission hotpots of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas; however, this has not been well quantified yet. Here we examine how multiple environmental forcings have affected N2O emissions from global lentic systems since the pre-industrial period. Our results show that global lentic systems emitted 64.6 ± 12.1 Gg N2O-N yr−1 in the 2010s, increased by 126% since the 1850s. The significance of small lentic systems on mitigating N2O emissions is highlighted due to their substantial emission rates and response to terrestrial environmental changes. Incorporated with riverine emissions, this study indicates that N2O emissions from global inland waters in the 2010s was 319.6 ± 58.2 Gg N yr−1. This suggests a global emission factor of 0.051% for inland water N2O emissions relative to agricultural nitrogen applications and provides the country-level emission factors (ranging from 0 to 0.341%) for improving the methodology for national greenhouse gas emission inventories

Representation of dissolved organic carbon in the JULES land surface model (vn4.4_JULES-DOCM)

Current global models of the carbon (C) cycle consider only vertical gas exchanges between terrestrial or oceanic reservoirs and the atmosphere, thus not considering the lateral transport of carbon from the continents to the oceans. Therefore, those models implicitly consider all of the C which is not respired to the atmosphere to be stored on land and hence overestimate the land C sink capability. A model that represents the whole continuum from atmosphere to land and into the ocean would provide a better understanding of the Earth's C cycle and hence more reliable historical or future projections. A first and critical step in that direction is to include processes representing the production and export of dissolved organic carbon in soils. Here we present an original representation of dissolved organic C (DOC) processes in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES-DOCM) that integrates a representation of DOC production in terrestrial ecosystems based on the incomplete decomposition of organic matter, DOC decomposition within the soil column, and DOC export to the river network via leaching. The model performance is evaluated in five specific sites for which observations of soil DOC concentration are available. Results show that the model is able to reproduce the DOC concentration and controlling processes, including leaching to the riverine system, which is fundamental for integrating terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Future work should include the fate of exported DOC in the river system as well as DIC and POC export from soil

The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990-2018

Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011-2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report-90 Tg C yr-1 ± 30 Tg C yr-1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of-98 Tg C yr-1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr-1 ± 400 Tg C yr-1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux"obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized. © 2021 Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu et al

Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates

The Global Carbon Budget 2018 (GCB2018) estimated by the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, fossil fuel emissions, and modeled (bottom-up) land and ocean fluxes cannot be fully closed, leading to a “budget imbalance,” highlighting uncertainties in GCB components. However, no systematic analysis has been performed on which regions or processes contribute to this term. To obtain deeper insight on the sources of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets, we analyzed differences in Net Biome Productivity (NBP) for all possible combinations of bottom-up and top-down data sets in GCB2018: (i) 16 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and (ii) 5 atmospheric inversions that match the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. We find that the global mismatch between the two ensembles matches well the GCB2018 budget imbalance, with Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Oceania as the largest contributors. Differences between DGVMs dominate global mismatches, while at regional scale differences between inversions contribute the most to uncertainty. At both global and regional scales, disagreement on NBP interannual variability between the two approaches explains a large fraction of differences. We attribute this mismatch to distinct responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability between DGVMs and inversions and to uncertainties in land use change emissions, especially in South America and Southeast Asia. We identify key needs to reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets: reducing uncertainty in atmospheric inversions (e.g., through more observations in the tropics) and in land use change fluxes, including more land use processes and evaluating land use transitions (e.g., using high-resolution remote-sensing), and, finally, improving tropical hydroecological processes and fire representation within DGVMs.</p

Unexpected large evasion fluxes of carbon dioxide from turbulent streams draining the world’s mountains

Inland waters, including streams and rivers, are active components of the global carbon cycle. Despite the large areal extent of the world’s mountains, the role of mountain streams for global carbon fluxes remains elusive. Using recent insights from gas exchange in turbulent streams, we found that areal CO2 evasion fluxes from mountain streams equal or exceed those reported from tropical and boreal streams, typically regarded as hotspots of aquatic carbon fluxes. At the regional scale of the Swiss Alps, we present evidence that emitted CO2 derives from lithogenic and biogenic sources within the catchment and delivered by the groundwater to the streams. At a global scale, we estimate the CO2 evasion from mountain streams to 167 ± 1.5 Tg C yr−1, which is high given their relatively low areal contribution to the global stream and river networks. Our findings shed new light on mountain streams for global carbon fluxes

A Comprehensive Assessment of Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks of Australasia's Carbon Budget

Regional carbon budget assessments attribute and track changes in carbon sources and sinks and support the development and monitoring the efficacy of climate policies. We present a comprehensive assessment of the natural and anthropogenic carbon (C-CO2) fluxes for Australasia as a whole, as well as for Australia and New Zealand individually, for the period from 2010 to 2019, using two approaches: bottom-up methods that integrate flux estimates from land-surface models, data-driven models, and inventory estimates; and top-down atmospheric inversions based on satellite and in situ measurements. Our bottom-up decadal assessment suggests that Australasia's net carbon balance was close to carbon neutral (−0.4 ± 77.0 TgC yr−1). However, substantial uncertainties remain in this estimate, primarily driven by the large spread between our regional terrestrial biosphere simulations and predictions from global ecosystem models. Within Australasia, Australia was a net source of 38.2 ± 75.8 TgC yr−1, and New Zealand was a net CO2 sink of −38.6 ± 13.4 TgC yr−1. The top-down approach using atmospheric CO2 inversions indicates that fluxes derived from the latest satellite retrievals are consistent within the range of uncertainties with Australia's bottom-up budget. For New Zealand, the best agreement was found with a national scale flux inversion estimate based on in situ measurements, which provide better constrained of fluxes than satellite flux inversions. This study marks an important step toward a more comprehensive understanding of the net CO2 balance in both countries, facilitating the improvement of carbon accounting approaches and strategies to reduce emissions