Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find that for all of the models a new precursor based on the spatial distribution of activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in the local activity.Comment: 15 pages, plain.tex with special macros included, 4 figure

The Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document for the Derivation of Range and Range Distributions from Laser Pulse Waveform Analysis for Surface Elevations, Roughness, Slope, and Vegetation Heights

The primary purpose of the GLAS instrument is to detect ice elevation changes over time which are used to derive changes in ice volume. Other objectives include measuring sea ice freeboard, ocean and land surface elevation, surface roughness, and canopy heights over land. This Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) describes the theory and implementation behind the algorithms used to produce the level 1B products for waveform parameters and global elevation and the level 2 products that are specific to ice sheet, sea ice, land, and ocean elevations respectively. These output products, are defined in detail along with the associated quality, and the constraints, and assumptions used to derive them

Notes on a scandal: the official enquiry into deviance and corruption in New Zealand police

Since 2004, the New Zealand Police Service has been engulfed by a series of scandals relating to allegations that officers have committed rape and sexual assault and conducted inappropriate sexual relations with vulnerable people. Moreover, it has been claimed that other officers engaged in corrupt practices to thwart the investigation and prosecution of criminal behaviour of police officers. In 2007, a Commission of Inquiry report established a program of reform intended to shape the future direction of the police service. This article provides an overview of these scandals, the context in which they have emerged, and the political and policing response to them. The analysis contained in the Commission report is compared with that offered by comparable investigations of police deviance and corruption in other countries. The methodological and conceptual limitations of the Commission are outlined and the prospects of the recommendations are considered

Incentives as connectors : insights into a breastfeeding incentive intervention in a disadvantaged area of North-West England

PMID: 22458841 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE] PMCID: PMC3414740 Free PMC ArticlePeer reviewedPublisher PD

Preliminary seismological and geological studies of the San Fernando, California, earthquake of February 9 1971

The San Fernando earthquake was the largest earthquake to occur in the metropolitan Los Angeles area in more than 50 years. It has tentatively been assigned a magnitude, M_L of 6.6, a focal depth of 13.0 km, and an epicentral location about 12 km east of Newhall, California, at 34°24.0'N, 118°23.7'W (Figure 1), but these figures undoubtedly will be modified as further data become available. Although the focal depth is not as well defined as the epicenter, it is consistent with other observations suggesting thrusting on a fault plane dipping north about 45 ° and breaking the surface in the Sylmar-San Fernando area (Figure 1). It should be emphasized that the hypocenter of the main shock represents only the point of initial rupture. Breaking, presumably, then propagated southward and upward from this point, so that the main geological and engineering effects were observed farther south where the fault was shallower and the displacement greater. The location of the main shock is based on readings from permanent stations of the Caltech network, as well as the U. S. Geological Survey station at Point Mugu (SBLG) and the California Department of Water Resources stations at Pyramid (PYR) and Cedar Springs (CSP). Portable Caltech seismographs were installed in the epicentral area as early as 3 hr following the main shock, and, within a few days, there were at least 30 portable units in the region operated by various groups and agencies

Genetic variants associated with lung function: The long life family study

Background: Reduced forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and the ratio of FEV1 to forced vital capacity (FVC) are strong predictors of mortality and lung function is higher among individuals with exceptional longevity. However, genetic factors associated with lung function in individuals with exceptional longevity have not been identified. Method: We conducted a genome wide association study (GWAS) to identify novel genetic variants associated with lung function in the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) (n = 3,899). Replication was performed using data from the CHARGE/SpiroMeta consortia. The association between SNPs and FEV1 and FEV1/FVC was analyzed using a linear mixed effects model adjusted for age, age2, sex, height, field center, ancestry principal components and kinship structure to adjust for family relationships separately for ever smokers and never smokers. In the linkage analysis, we used the residuals of the FEV1 and FEV1/FVC, adjusted for age, sex, height, ancestry principal components (PCs), smoking status, pack-years, and field center. Results: We identified nine SNPs in strong linkage disequilibrium in the CYP2U1 gene to be associated with FEV1 and a novel SNP (rs889574) associated with FEV1/FVC, none of which were replicated in the CHARGE/SpiroMeta consortia. Using linkage analysis, we identified a novel linkage peak in chromosome 2 at 219 cM for FEV1/FVC (LOD: 3.29) and confirmed a previously reported linkage peak in chromosome 6 at 28 cM (LOD: 3.33) for FEV1. Conclusion: Future studies need to identify the rare genetic variants underlying the linkage peak in chromosome 6 for FEV1

Genetic determinants of heel bone properties: genome-wide association meta-analysis and replication in the GEFOS/GENOMOS consortium

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel captures heel bone properties that independently predict fracture risk and, with bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by X-ray (DXA), may be convenient alternatives for evaluating osteoporosis and fracture risk. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies to assess the genetic determinants of heel broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA; n = 14 260), velocity of sound (VOS; n = 15 514) and BMD (n = 4566) in 13 discovery cohorts. Independent replication involved seven cohorts with GWA data (in silico n = 11 452) and new genotyping in 15 cohorts (de novo n = 24 902). In combined random effects, meta-analysis of the discovery and replication cohorts, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) had genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) associations with heel bone properties. Alongside SNPs within or near previously identified osteoporosis susceptibility genes including ESR1 (6q25.1: rs4869739, rs3020331, rs2982552), SPTBN1 (2p16.2: rs11898505), RSPO3 (6q22.33: rs7741021), WNT16 (7q31.31: rs2908007), DKK1 (10q21.1: rs7902708) and GPATCH1 (19q13.11: rs10416265), we identified a new locus on chromosome 11q14.2 (rs597319 close to TMEM135, a gene recently linked to osteoblastogenesis and longevity) significantly associated with both BUA and VOS (P < 8.23 × 10(-14)). In meta-analyses involving 25 cohorts with up to 14 985 fracture cases, six of 10 SNPs associated with heel bone properties at P < 5 × 10(-6) also had the expected direction of association with any fracture (P < 0.05), including three SNPs with P < 0.005: 6q22.33 (rs7741021), 7q31.31 (rs2908007) and 10q21.1 (rs7902708). In conclusion, this GWA study reveals the effect of several genes common to central DXA-derived BMD and heel ultrasound/DXA measures and points to a new genetic locus with potential implications for better understanding of osteoporosis pathophysiology

Astrometry and geodesy with radio interferometry: experiments, models, results

Summarizes current status of radio interferometry at radio frequencies between Earth-based receivers, for astrometric and geodetic applications. Emphasizes theoretical models of VLBI observables that are required to extract results at the present accuracy levels of 1 cm and 1 nanoradian. Highlights the achievements of VLBI during the past two decades in reference frames, Earth orientation, atmospheric effects on microwave propagation, and relativity.Comment: 83 pages, 19 Postscript figures. To be published in Rev. Mod. Phys., Vol. 70, Oct. 199

Scans for signatures of selection in Russian cattle breed genomes reveal new candidate genes for environmental adaptation and acclimation

Domestication and selective breeding has resulted in over 1000 extant cattle breeds. Many of these breeds do not excel in important traits but are adapted to local environments. These adaptations are a valuable source of genetic material for efforts to improve commercial breeds. As a step toward this goal we identified candidate regions to be under selection in genomes of nine Russian native cattle breeds adapted to survive in harsh climates. After comparing our data to other breeds of European and Asian origins we found known and novel candidate genes that could potentially be related to domestication, economically important traits and environmental adaptations in cattle. The Russian cattle breed genomes contained regions under putative selection with genes that may be related to adaptations to harsh environments (e.g., AQP5, RAD50, and RETREG1). We found genomic signatures of selective sweeps near key genes related to economically important traits, such as the milk production (e.g., DGAT1, ABCG2), growth (e.g., XKR4), and reproduction (e.g., CSF2). Our data point to candidate genes which should be included in future studies attempting to identify genes to improve the extant breeds and facilitate generation of commercial breeds that fit better into the environments of Russia and other countries with similar climates

GTP binding and intramolecular regulation by the ROC domain of Death Associated Protein Kinase 1

The ROCO proteins are a family of large, multidomain proteins characterised by the presence of a Ras of complex proteins (ROC) domain followed by a COR, or C-terminal of ROC, domain. It has previously been shown that the ROC domain of the human ROCO protein Leucine Rich Repeat Kinase 2 (LRRK2) controls its kinase activity. Here, the ability of the ROC domain of another human ROCO protein, Death Associated Protein Kinase 1 (DAPK1), to bind GTP and control its kinase activity has been evaluated. In contrast to LRRK2, loss of GTP binding by DAPK1 does not result in loss of kinase activity, instead acting to modulate this activity. These data highlight the ROC domain of DAPK1 as a target for modifiers of this proteins function, and casts light on the role of ROC domains as intramolecular regulators in complex proteins with implications for a broad range of human diseases