The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

OPSitu:A Semantic-Web Based Situation Inference Tool Under Opportunistic Sensing Paradigm

Opportunistic sensing becomes a competitive sensing paradigm nowadays. Instead of pre-deploying application-specific sensors, it makes use of sensors that just happen to be available to accomplish its sensing goal. In the opportunistic sensing paradigm, the sensors that can be utilized by a given application in a given time are unpredictable. This brings the Semantic-Web based situation inference approach, which is widely adopted in situation-aware applications, a major challenge, i.e., how to handle uncertainty of the availability and confidence of the sensing data. Although extending standard semantic-web languages may enable the situation inference to be compatible with the uncertainty, it also brings extra complexity to the languages and makes them hard to be learned. Unlike the existing works, this paper developed a situation inference tool, named OPSitu, which enables the situation inference rules to be written in the well accepted standard languages such as OWL and SWRL even under opportunistic sensing paradigm. An experiment is also described to demonstrate the validity of OPSitu

Chronic Kidney Disease in Iran: First Report of the National Registry in Children and Adolescences

Purpose: Knowing the epidemiological aspects of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in children is crucial for early recognition, identification of reversible causes, and prognosis. Here, we report the epidemiological characteristics of childhood CKD in Iran. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during 1991 � 2009. The data were collected using the information in the Iranian Pediatric Registry of Chronic Kidney Disease (IPRCKD) core dataset. Results: A total of 1247 children were registered. The mean age of the children at registration was 0.69 ± 4.72 years (range, 0.25 �18 years), 7.79 ± 3.18 years for hemodialysis (HD), 4.24 ± 1.86 years for continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD), and 3.4±1.95 years for the children who underwent the renal transplantation (RT) (P < .001). The mean year of follow-up was 7.19 ± 4.65 years. The mean annual incidence of CKD 2�5 stages was 3.34 per million age-related population (pmarp). The mean prevalence of CKD 2�5 stages was 21.95 (pmarp). The cumulative 1-, 5-, and 10-year patients� survival rates were 98.3, 90.7, and 84.8, respectively. The etiology of the CKD included the congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) (40.01), glomerulopathy (19.00), unknown cause (18.28), and cystic/hereditary/congenital disease (11.14). Conclusion: The incidence and prevalence rate of pediatric CKD in Iran is relatively lower than those reported in Europe and other similar studies. CAKUT was the main cause of the CKD. Appropriate management of CAKUT including early urological intervention is required to preserve the renal function. Herein, the long-term survival rate was higher among the children with CKD than the literature. © 2021. All Rights Reserved

Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6 increase, of which 13.9 and 28.7 were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8), prostate (66.7), female breast (63.0) and colorectal cancer (54.1). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country. © 2021 Union for International Cancer Control