Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea level rise impacts and coastal zone protection

Climate change impacts on coastal zones could be significant unless adaptation is undertaken. One particular macro-economic dimension of sea level rise (SLR) impacts that has received no attention so far is the potential stress of SLR impacts on public budgets. Adaptation will require increased public expenditure to protect assets at risk and could put additional stress on public budgets. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of SLR adaptation and impacts on public budgets. We include fiscal indicators in a climate change impact assessment focusing on SLR impacts and adaptation costs using a computable general equilibrium model extended with a detailed description of the public sector. Coastal protection expenditure is financed issuing government bonds, meaning that coastal adaptation places an additional burden on public budgets. SLR impacts are examined using several scenarios linked to three different Representative Concentration Pathways: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, and two Shared Socio-economic Pathways: SSP2 and SSP5. Future projections of direct damages of mean and extreme SLR and adaptation costs are generated by the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment framework. Without adaptation, all world regions suffer a loss and public deficits increase respect to the reference scenario. Higher deficits imply higher government borrowing from household savings reducing available resources for private investments therefore decreasing capital accumulation and growth. Adaptation benefits result from two mechanisms: i) the avoided direct impacts, and ii) a reduced public deficit effect. This allows for an increased capital accumulation, suggesting that support to adaptation in deficit spending might trigger positive effects on public finance sustainability

New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 °C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 °C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 °C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points

Treatment strategy introducing immunosuppressive drugs with glucocorticoids ab initio or very early in giant cell arteritis: A multicenter retrospective controlled study

Objective: Glucocorticoids (GC) are associated with side effects in giant cell arteritis (GCA). Immunosuppressive therapies (ITs) have given conflicting results in GCA, regarding GC sparing effect. Primary endpoint is to evaluate whether very early introduction of ITs in GCA minimize the rate of GC-induced adverse events, in terms of infections, new onset systemic arterial hypertension, GC-induced diabetes and osteoporotic fractures. Methods: A multicenter retrospective case-control study included 165 patients. One group included 114 patients who were treated with at least one IT given at diagnosis or within 3 months from the start of GC. A second group included 51 GCA who received only GC or an IT more than 3 months later. Results: The most frequently used ITs were: methotrexate (138 patients), cyclophosphamide (48 patients) and tocilizumab (27 patients). No difference was observed as concerns the follow-up time between groups [48.5 (IQR 26\u201372) vs 40 (IQR 24\u201369), p \u200b= \u200b0.3)]. The first group showed a significantly lower incidence of steroid-induced diabetes (8/114, 7% vs 12/51, 23.5%; p \u200b= \u200b0.003) and no differences for the rate of infections (p \u200b= \u200b0.64). The group was also exposed to lower doses of GC at first (p \u200b< \u200b0.0001) and third (p \u200b< \u200b0.0001, rank-sum test) month. Forty-four patients in the first group (38.6%) compared with 34 in the second one (66.7%) experienced at least one relapse (p \u200b= \u200b0.001). Conclusion: Very early introduction of IT in GCA lowered the incidence of steroid-induced diabetes, possibly due to the lower doses of GC in the first three months. Relapse rate was even lower

Systematic sensitivity analysis of the full economic impacts of sea level rise

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically assess the robustness of computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to model’s inputs uncertainty. Monte Carlo (MC) and Gaussian quadrature (GQ) methods are used for conducting a Systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA). This design allows to both explore the sensitivity of the CGE model and to compare the MC and GQ methods. Results show that, regardless whether triangular or piecewise linear Probability distributions are used, the welfare losses are higher in the MC SSA than in the original deterministic simulation. This indicates that the CGE economic literature has potentially underestimated the total economic effects of SLR, thus stressing the necessity of SSA when simulating the general equilibrium effects of SLR. The uncertainty decomposition shows that land losses have a smaller effect compared to capital and seaport productivity losses. Capital losses seem to affect the developed regions GDP more than the productivity losses do. Moreover, we show the uncertainty decomposition of the MC results and discuss the convergence of the MC results for a decomposed version of the CGE model. This paper aims to provide standardised guidelines for stochastic simulation in the context of CGE modelling that could be useful for researchers in similar settings

Plan or React? Analysis of Adaptation Costs and Benefits Using Integrated Assessment Models

This report examines adaptation and mitigation within an integrated framework. Global and regional costs of adaptation are assessed dynamically and the resulting benefits are quantified. This is accomplished by developing a framework to incorporate adaptation as a policy variable within three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); the global Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), and the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model. The framework developed here takes into account investments in reactive adaptation and in adaptation “stocks”, as well as investments in building adaptive capacity. This report presents the first inter-model comparison of results on adaptation costs using the emerging category of adaptation-IAMs. Results show that least-cost policy response to climate change will need to involve subsantial amounts of mitigation efforts, investments in adaptation stock, reactive adaptation measures and adaptive capacity to limit the remaining damages

Low-dose oral imatinib in the treatment of systemic sclerosis interstitial lung disease unresponsive to cyclophosphamide: a phase II pilot study.

NTRODUCTION: Pulmonary involvement represents a major cause of death of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients. Recent data suggest that tyrosine kinase inhibitors, such as imatinib, may be a therapeutic option for SSc patients. However, preliminary published clinical trials were inconclusive about imatinib efficacy and showed side effects. The purpose of this study was to verify efficacy and tolerability of low-dose imatinib on interstitial lung disease in a cohort of SSc patients unresponsive to cyclophosphamide therapy. METHODS: Thirty consecutive SSc patients with active pulmonary involvement, unresponsive to cyclophosphamide, were treated with imatinib 200 mg/day for 6 months followed by a 6-month follow-up. A "good response" was defined as an increase of forced vital capacity (FVC) by more of 15% and/or increase of diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide (DLCO) >15% and PaO2 > 90% of initial value and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT)-scan pattern unchanged or improved. RESULTS: Twenty-six patients completed the study. Three patients died and one patient was lost to follow-up. Four patients (15.32%) had a good response, 7 worsened and 15 had a stabilized lung disease. Overall, 19 (73.07%) patients had an improved or stabilized lung disease. After a 6-month follow-up, 12 (54.5%) of the 22 patients showed an improved or stabilized lung disease. CONCLUSIONS: Lung function was stabilized in a large proportion of patients unresponsive to cyclophosphamide therapy and a beneficial outcome emerged from the analysis of HRCT lung scans. There was no significant improvement of skin involvement, and the low dose was well tolerated. These data provide useful suggestions to design future randomized clinical trials for SSc therapeutics

Social sciences research in neglected tropical diseases 2: A bibliographic analysis

The official published version of the article can be found at the link below.Background There are strong arguments for social science and interdisciplinary research in the neglected tropical diseases. These diseases represent a rich and dynamic interplay between vector, host, and pathogen which occurs within social, physical and biological contexts. The overwhelming sense, however, is that neglected tropical diseases research is a biomedical endeavour largely excluding the social sciences. The purpose of this review is to provide a baseline for discussing the quantum and nature of the science that is being conducted, and the extent to which the social sciences are a part of that. Methods A bibliographic analysis was conducted of neglected tropical diseases related research papers published over the past 10 years in biomedical and social sciences. The analysis had textual and bibliometric facets, and focussed on chikungunya, dengue, visceral leishmaniasis, and onchocerciasis. Results There is substantial variation in the number of publications associated with each disease. The proportion of the research that is social science based appears remarkably consistent (<4%). A textual analysis, however, reveals a degree of misclassification by the abstracting service where a surprising proportion of the "social sciences" research was pure clinical research. Much of the social sciences research also tends to be "hand maiden" research focused on the implementation of biomedical solutions. Conclusion There is little evidence that scientists pay any attention to the complex social, cultural, biological, and environmental dynamic involved in human pathogenesis. There is little investigator driven social science and a poor presence of interdisciplinary science. The research needs more sophisticated funders and priority setters who are not beguiled by uncritical biomedical promises

Low-dose oral imatinib in the treatment of systemic sclerosis interstitial lung disease unresponsive to cyclophosphamide: a phase II pilot study

Introduction: Pulmonary involvement represents a major cause of death of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients. Recent data suggest that tyrosine kinase inhibitors, such as imatinib, may be a therapeutic option for SSc patients. However, preliminary published clinical trials were inconclusive about imatinib efficacy and showed side effects. The purpose of this study was to verify efficacy and tolerability of low-dose imatinib on interstitial lung disease in a cohort of SSc patients unresponsive to cyclophosphamide therapy.Methods: Thirty consecutive SSc patients with active pulmonary involvement, unresponsive to cyclophosphamide, were treated with imatinib 200 mg/day for 6 months followed by a 6-month follow-up. A "good response" was defined as an increase of forced vital capacity (FVC) by more of 15% and/or increase of diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide (DLCO) &gt; 15% and PaO2 &gt; 90% of initial value and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT)-scan pattern unchanged or improved.Results: Twenty-six patients completed the study. Three patients died and one patient was lost to follow-up. Four patients (15.32%) had a good response, 7 worsened and 15 had a stabilized lung disease. Overall, 19 (73.07%) patients had an improved or stabilized lung disease. After a 6-month follow-up, 12 (54.5%) of the 22 patients showed an improved or stabilized lung disease.Conclusions: Lung function was stabilized in a large proportion of patients unresponsive to cyclophosphamide therapy and a beneficial outcome emerged from the analysis of HRCT lung scans. There was no significant improvement of skin involvement, and the low dose was well tolerated. These data provide useful suggestions to design future randomized clinical trials for SSc therapeutics

Mixing and matching siderophore clusters: structure and biosynthesis of serratiochelins from Serratia sp. v4

Studying the evolutionary history underlying the remarkable structures and biological activities of natural products has been complicated by not knowing the functions they have evolved to fulfill. Siderophores - soluble, low molecular weight compounds - have an easily understood and measured function: acquiring iron from the environment. Bacteria engage in a fierce competition for acquiring iron, which rewards the production of siderophores that bind iron tightly and cannot be used or pirated by competitors. The structures and biosyntheses of 'odd' siderophores can reveal the evolutionary strategy that led to their creation. Here, we here report a new Serratia strain that produces serratiochelin and an analog of serratiochelin. A genetic approach located the serratiochelin gene cluster, and targeted mutations in several genes implicated in serratiochelin biosynthesis were generated. Bioinformatic analyses and mutagenesis results demonstrate that genes from two well known siderophore clusters, the Escherichia coli enterobactin cluster and the Vibrio cholerae vibriobactin cluster, were shuffled to produce a new siderophore biosynthetic pathway. These results highlight how modular siderophore gene clusters can be mixed and matched during evolution to generate structural diversity in siderophores.This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (Grants GM82137 to R.K., and AI057159 and GM086258 to J.C.). M.R.S. acknowledges support from the NIH Pathway to Independence Award (Grant 1K99 GM098299-01). S.C. and M.J.V. acknowledge support from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (PhD Grant SFRH/BD/38298/2007 to S.C.; Project PTDC/EBB-EBI/104263/2008 to M.J.V.)