An evaluation of the quality of statistical design and analysis of published medical research : results from a systematic survey of general orthopaedic journals

Background: The application of statistics in reported research in trauma and orthopaedic surgery has become ever more important and complex. Despite the extensive use of statistical analysis, it is still a subject which is often not conceptually well understood, resulting in clear methodological flaws and inadequate reporting in many papers. Methods: A detailed statistical survey sampled 100 representative orthopaedic papers using a validated questionnaire that assessed the quality of the trial design and statistical analysis methods. Results: The survey found evidence of failings in study design, statistical methodology and presentation of the results. Overall, in 17% (95% confidence interval; 10–26%) of the studies investigated the conclusions were not clearly justified by the results, in 39% (30–49%) of studies a different analysis should have been undertaken and in 17% (10–26%) a different analysis could have made a difference to the overall conclusions. Conclusion: It is only by an improved dialogue between statistician, clinician, reviewer and journal editor that the failings in design methodology and analysis highlighted by this survey can be addressed

Early warning scores generated in developed healthcare settings are not sufficient at predicting early mortality in Blantyre, Malawi : a prospective cohort study

Early warning scores (EWS) are widely used in well-resourced healthcare settings to identify patients at risk of mortality. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a well-known EWS used comprehensively in the United Kingdom. The HOTEL score (Hypotension, Oxygen saturation, Temperature, ECG abnormality, Loss of independence) was developed and tested in a European cohort; however, its validity is unknown in resource limited settings. This study compared the performance of both scores and suggested modifications to enhance accuracy

Performance characteristics of five triage tools for major incidents involving traumatic injuries to children

Context Triage tools are an essential component of the emergency response to a major incident. Although fortunately rare, mass casualty incidents involving children are possible which mandate reliable triage tools to determine the priority of treatment. Objective To determine the performance characteristics of five major incident triage tools amongst paediatric casualties who have sustained traumatic injuries. Design, setting, participants Retrospective observational cohort study using data from 31,292 patients aged less than 16 years who sustained a traumatic injury. Data were obtained from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database. Interventions Statistical evaluation of five triage tools (JumpSTART, START, CareFlight, Paediatric Triage Tape/Sieve and Triage Sort) to predict death or severe traumatic injury (injury severity score >15). Main outcome measures Performance characteristics of triage tools (sensitivity, specificity and level of agreement between triage tools) to identify patients at high risk of death or severe injury. Results Of the 31,292 cases, 1029 died (3.3%), 6842 (21.9%) had major trauma (defined by an injury severity score >15) and 14,711 (47%) were aged 8 years or younger. There was variation in the performance accuracy of the tools to predict major trauma or death (sensitivities ranging between 36.4 and 96.2%; specificities 66.0–89.8%). Performance characteristics varied with the age of the child. CareFlight had the best overall performance at predicting death, with the following sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) respectively: 95.3% (93.8–96.8) and 80.4% (80.0–80.9). JumpSTART was superior for the triaging of children under 8 years; sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) respectively: 86.3% (83.1–89.5) and 84.8% (84.2–85.5). The triage tools were generally better at identifying patients who would die than those with non-fatal severe injury. Conclusion This statistical evaluation has demonstrated variability in the accuracy of triage tools at predicting outcomes for children who sustain traumatic injuries. No single tool performed consistently well across all evaluated scenarios

Sustainable food consumption across Western and Non-Western cultures: A scoping review considering the theory of planned behaviour

The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) states that food consumption is preceded by an intention, which is shaped by behavioural beliefs and attitudes. To mitigate criticism of the TPB's lack of cultural context, researchers have tested extended models with culturally specific variables included. This scoping review maps the use of the extended TPB across Western and Non-Western cultures in the context of sustainable food consumption, which includes meat consumption, food waste and organic food purchases. 3924 abstracts and 241 articles were screened. The final review included 95 articles. The number of Western and Non-Western studies was similar, but sample sizes were larger in Western cultures. Generally, the inclusion of culturally specific variables improved models that predicted organic food purchases and food waste, but not for meat consumption. The current findings highlight a lack of consensus regarding the selection of culturally specific variables. Instead, future cross-cultural research that explores similar factors could facilitate the development of a universal model of sustainable food. This model is required to drive a global approach towards encouraging sustainable diets. Incorporating cultural nuances and targeting common core values and attitudes may improve generalisability and efficacy of subsequent interventions that target sustainable food consumption across cultures

Comparison of breast and bowel cancer screening uptake patterns in a common cohort of South Asian women in England

Background: Inequalities in uptake of cancer screening by ethnic minority populations are well documented in a number of international studies. However, most studies to date have explored screening uptake for a single cancer only. This paper compares breast and bowel cancer screening uptake for a cohort of South Asian women invited to undertake both, and similarly investigates these women's breast cancer screening behaviour over a period of fifteen years. Methods: Screening data for rounds 1, 2 and 5 (1989-2004) of the NHS breast cancer screening programme and for round 1 of the NHS bowel screening pilot (2000-2002) were obtained for women aged 50-69 resident in the English bowel screening pilot site, Coventry and Warwickshire, who had been invited to undertake breast and bowel cancer screening in the period 2000-2002. Breast and bowel cancer screening uptake levels were calculated and compared using the chi-squared test. Results: 72,566 women were invited to breast and bowel cancer screening after exclusions. Of these, 3,539 were South Asian and 69,027 non-Asian; 18,730 had been invited to mammography over the previous fifteen years (rounds 1 to 5). South Asian women were significantly less likely to undertake both breast and bowel cancer screening; 29.9% (n = 1,057) compared to 59.4% (n = 40,969) for non-Asians (p < 0.001). Women in both groups who consistently chose to undertake breast cancer screening in rounds 1, 2 and 5 were more likely to complete round 1 bowel cancer screening. However, the likelihood of completion of bowel cancer screening was still significantly lower for South Asians; 49.5% vs. 82.3% for non-Asians, p < 0.001. South Asian women who undertook breast cancer screening in only one round were no more likely to complete bowel cancer screening than those who decided against breast cancer screening in all three rounds. In contrast, similar women in the non-Asian population had an increased likelihood of completing the new bowel cancer screening test. The likelihood of continued uptake of mammography after undertaking screening in round 1 differed between South Asian religio-linguistic groups. Noticeably, women in the Muslim population were less likely to continue to participate in mammography than those in other South Asian groups. Conclusions: Culturally appropriate targeted interventions are required to reduce observed disparities in cancer screening uptakes

Improved Interpretation of Mercury Intrusion and Soil Water Retention Percolation Characteristics by Inverse Modelling and Void Cluster Analysis

This work addresses two continuing fallacies in the interpretation of percolation characteristics of porous solids. The first is that the first derivative (slope) of the intrusion characteristic of the non-wetting fluid or drainage characteristic of the wetting fluid corresponds to the void size distribution, and the second is that the sizes of all voids can be measured. The fallacies are illustrated with the aid of the PoreXpert® inversemodelling package.Anewvoid analysis method is then described, which is an add-on to the inverse modelling package and addresses the second fallacy. It is applied to three widely contrasting and challenging porous media. The first comprises two fine-grain graphites for use in the next-generation nuclear reactors. Their larger void sizes were measured by mercury intrusion, and the smallest by using a grand canonical Monte Carlo interpretation of surface area measurement down to nanometre scale. The second application is to the mercury intrusion of a series of mixtures of ground calcium carbonate with powdered microporous calcium carbonate known as functionalised calcium carbonate (FCC). The third is the water retention/drainage characteristic of a soil sample which undergoes naturally occurring hydrophilic/hydrophobic transitions. The first-derivative approximation is shown to be reasonable in the interpretation of the mercury intrusion porosimetry of the two graphites, which differ only at low mercury intrusion pressures, but false for FCC and the transiently hydrophobic soil. The findings are supported by other experimental characterisations, in particular electron and atomic force microscopy

Preschool-Aged Household Contacts as a Risk Factor for Viral Respiratory Infections in Healthcare Personnel

BACKGROUND: Viral respiratory infections (VRIs) are common and are occupational risks for healthcare personnel (HCP). VRIs can also be acquired at home and other settings among HCPs. We sought to determine if preschool-aged household contacts are a risk factor for VRIs among HCPs working in outpatient settings. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a cluster randomized trial at 7 medical centers in the United States over 4 influenza seasons from 2011-2012 to 2014-2015. Adult HCPs who routinely came within 6 feet of patients with respiratory infections were included. Participants were tested for respiratory viruses whenever symptomatic and at 2 random times each season when asymptomatic. The exposure of interest was the number of household contacts 0-5 years old (preschool-aged) at the beginning of each HCP-season. The primary outcome was the rate of polymerase chain reaction-detected VRIs, regardless of symptoms. The VRI incidence rate ratio (IRR) was calculated using a mixed-effects Poisson regression model that accounted for clustering at the clinic level. RESULTS: Among the 4476 HCP-seasons, most HCPs were female (85.4%) and between 30 and 49 years of age (54.6%). The overall VRI rate was 2.04 per 100 person-weeks. In the adjusted analysis, HCPs having 1 (IRR, 1.22 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.05-1.43]) and ≥2 (IRR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.09-1.67]) preschool-aged household contacts had higher VRI rates than those with zero preschool-aged household contacts. CONCLUSIONS: Preschool-aged household contacts are a risk factor for developing VRIs among HCPs working in outpatient settings

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Differences in HIV Natural History among African and Non-African Seroconverters in Europe and Seroconverters in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction It is unknown whether HIV treatment guidelines, based on resource-rich country cohorts, are applicable to African populations. Methods We estimated CD4 cell loss in ART-naïve, AIDS-free individuals using mixed models allowing for random intercept and slope, and time from seroconversion to clinical AIDS, death and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation by survival methods. Using CASCADE data from 20 European and 3 sub-Saharan African (SSA) cohorts of heterosexually-infected individuals, aged ≥15 years, infected ≥2000, we compared estimates between non-African Europeans, Africans in Europe, and Africans in SSA. Results Of 1,959 (913 non-Africans, 302 Europeans - African origin, 744 SSA), two-thirds were female; median age at seroconversion was 31 years. Individuals in SSA progressed faster to clinical AIDS but not to death or non-TB AIDS. They also initiated ART later than Europeans and at lower CD4 cell counts. In adjusted models, Africans (especially from Europe) had lower CD4 counts at seroconversion and slower CD4 decline than non-African Europeans. Median (95% CI) CD4 count at seroconversion for a 15–29 year old woman was 607 (588–627) (non-African European), 469 (442–497) (European - African origin) and 570 (551–589) (SSA) cells/µL with respective CD4 decline during the first 4 years of 259 (228–289), 155 (110–200), and 199 (174–224) cells/µL (p<0.01). Discussion Despite differences in CD4 cell count evolution, death and non-TB AIDS rates were similar across study groups. It is therefore prudent to apply current ART guidelines from resource-rich countries to African populations

Atomoxetine Enhances Connectivity of Prefrontal Networks in Parkinson's Disease.

Cognitive impairment is common in Parkinson's disease (PD), but often not improved by dopaminergic treatment. New treatment strategies targeting other neurotransmitter deficits are therefore of growing interest. Imaging the brain at rest ('task-free') provides the opportunity to examine the impact of a candidate drug on many of the brain networks that underpin cognition, while minimizing task-related performance confounds. We test this approach using atomoxetine, a selective noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor that modulates the prefrontal cortical activity and can facilitate some executive functions and response inhibition. Thirty-three patients with idiopathic PD underwent task-free fMRI. Patients were scanned twice in a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover design, following either placebo or 40-mg oral atomoxetine. Seventy-six controls were scanned once without medication to provide normative data. Seed-based correlation analyses were used to measure changes in functional connectivity, with the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) a critical region for executive function. Patients on placebo had reduced connectivity relative to controls from right IFG to dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and to left IFG and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Atomoxetine increased connectivity from the right IFG to the dorsal anterior cingulate. In addition, the atomoxetine-induced change in connectivity from right IFG to dorsolateral prefrontal cortex was proportional to the change in verbal fluency, a simple index of executive function. The results support the hypothesis that atomoxetine may restore prefrontal networks related to executive functions. We suggest that task-free imaging can support translational pharmacological studies of new drug therapies and provide evidence for engagement of the relevant neurocognitive systems.This work was funded by the Wellcome trust (103838), Parkinson’s UK, National Institute for Health Research’s Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and the Medical Research Council (MC_US_A060_0016 and RG62761) and the James F McDonnell Foundation (21st century science initiative on Understanding Human Cognition). The BCNI is supported by a joint award from the Wellcome Trust and Medical Research Council.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/npp.2016.1