86 research outputs found

    Acute and chronic kidney disease in elderly patients with hip fracture: prevalence, risk factors and outcome with development and validation of a risk prediction model for acute kidney injury

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    Background Hip fracture is a common injury in older people with a high rate of postoperative morbidity and mortality. This patient group is also at high risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), but little is known of the impact of kidney disease on outcome following hip fracture. Methods An observational cohort of consecutive patients with hip fracture in a large UK secondary care hospital. Predictive modelling of outcomes using development and validation datasets. Inclusion: all patients admitted with hip fracture with sufficient serum creatinine measurements to define acute kidney injury. Main outcome measures – development of acute kidney injury during admission; mortality (in hospital, 30-365 day and to follow-up); length of hospital stay. Results Data were available for 2848 / 2959 consecutive admissions from 2007-2011; 776 (27.2%) male. Acute kidney injury occurs in 24%; development of acute kidney injury is independently associated with male sex (OR 1.48 (1.21 to 1.80), premorbid chronic kidney disease stage 3B or worse (OR 1.52 (1.19 to 1.93)), age (OR 3.4 (2.29 to 5.2) for >85 years) and greater than one major co-morbidities (OR 1.61 (1.34 to 1.93)). Acute kidney injury of any stage is associated with an increased hazard of death, and increased length of stay (Acute kidney injury: 19.1 (IQR 13 to 31) days; no acute kidney injury 15 (11 to 23) days). A simplified predictive model containing Age, CKD stage (3B-5), two or more comorbidities, and male sex had an area under the ROC curve of 0.63 (0.60 to 0.67). Conclusions Acute kidney injury following hip fracture is common and associated with worse outcome and greater hospital length of stay. With the number of people experiencing hip fracture predicted to rise, recognition of risk factors and optimal perioperative management of acute kidney injury will become even more important

    Examining the strategy development process through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory

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    The development of strategy remains a debate for academics and a concern for practitioners. Published research has focused on producing models for strategy development and on studying how strategy is developed in organisations. The Operational Research literature has highlighted the importance of considering complexity within strategic decision making; but little has been done to link strategy development with complexity theories, despite organisations and organisational environments becoming increasingly more complex. We review the dominant streams of strategy development and complexity theories. Our theoretical investigation results in the first conceptual framework which links an established Strategic Operational Research model, the Strategy Development Process model, with complexity via Complex Adaptive Systems theory. We present preliminary findings from the use of this conceptual framework applied to a longitudinal, in-depth case study, to demonstrate the advantages of using this integrated conceptual model. Our research shows that the conceptual model proposed provides rich data and allows for a more holistic examination of the strategy development process. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved

    Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds

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    Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world’s oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species

    Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds

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    Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world's oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species.B.L.C., C.H., and A.M. were funded by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative’s Collaborative Fund sponsored by the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation. E.J.P. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council C-CLEAR doctoral training programme (Grant no. NE/S007164/1). We are grateful to all those who assisted with the collection and curation of tracking data. Further details are provided in the Supplementary Acknowledgements. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Peer reviewe

    Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds

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    Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world’s oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation. Oceanic seabirds, particularly petrels, frequently ingest plastic, are highly threatened, and cover vast distances during foraging and migration. However, the spatial overlap between petrels and plastics is poorly understood. Here we combine marine plastic density estimates with individual movement data for 7137 birds of 77 petrel species to estimate relative exposure risk. We identify high exposure risk areas in the Mediterranean and Black seas, and the northeast Pacific, northwest Pacific, South Atlantic and southwest Indian oceans. Plastic exposure risk varies greatly among species and populations, and between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Exposure risk is disproportionately high for Threatened species. Outside the Mediterranean and Black seas, exposure risk is highest in the high seas and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the USA, Japan, and the UK. Birds generally had higher plastic exposure risk outside the EEZ of the country where they breed. We identify conservation and research priorities, and highlight that international collaboration is key to addressing the impacts of marine plastic on wide-ranging species

    The Oriental Fruit Worm

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    Codling Moth in Indiana

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