Improving wind power forecasts: combination through multivariate dimension reduction techniques

Wind energy and wind power forecast errors have a direct impact on operational decision problems involved in the integration of this form of energy into the electricity system. As the relationship between wind and the generated power is highly nonlinear and time-varying, and given the increasing number of available forecasting techniques, it is possible to use alternative models to obtain more than one prediction for the same hour and forecast horizon. To increase forecast accuracy, it is possible to combine the different predictions to obtain a better one or to dynamically select the best one in each time period. Hybrid alternatives based on combining a few selected forecasts can be considered when the number of models is large. One of the most popular ways to combine forecasts is to estimate the coefficients of each prediction model based on its past forecast errors. As an alternative, we propose using multivariate reduction techniques and Markov chain models to combine forecasts. The combination is thus not directly based on the forecast errors. We show that the proposed combination strategies based on dimension reduction techniques provide competitive forecasting results in terms of the Mean Square ErrorThe second author, Pilar Poncela, acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Government, Ministry of Science, contract grant PID2019-108079GB-C22/AEI/10.13039/50110001103

Papel del neuroprotector ApoD en el manejo microglial de agregados amiloides

La apolipoproteína D (ApoD) es una glicoproteína de la familia de las lipocalinas, cuya expresión se incrementa en las regiones del sistema nervioso central afectadas por la Enfermedad de Alzheimer. La función neuroprotectora de esta proteína frente al estrés oxidativo, que caracteriza al proceso de envejecimiento y a las patologías neurodegenerativas, ha sido ampliamente estudiada en neuronas y astrocitos. En este trabajo se analiza el papel de ApoD en las células BV2 (microglía de ratón) expuestas a los oligómeros de ß-amiloide, que son considerados los responsables del proceso neurodegenerativo que ocurre en la Enfermedad de Alzheimer. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, ApoD parece ejercer una función protectora frente al daño generado por los oligómeros de Aß sobre las células microgliales, que podría estar relacionada con su actividad antiinflamatoria.Grado en Medicin

Nuevos modelos de predicción eólica basados en series temporales

El trabajo desarrollado en esta tesis se centra en la mejora de los modelos estadísticos presentes en herramientas de predicción eólica actualmente existentes. Las principales aportaciones son, en primer lugar, partiendo de los modelos basados en el filtro de Kalman, la estimación de las matrices del sistema por máxima verosimilitud. De esta manera se incorporan las características del parque eólico a la predicción y se adapta la herramienta de predicción a cada parque. En segundo lugar, se estudia la aplicación de técnicas multivariantes que permitan captar, a través de las correlaciones entre parámetros, relaciones no recogidas explícitamente en los modelos. Se plantean distintas alternativas multivariantes de reducción de datos como estrategia de combinación de predicciones para la obtención de la predicción final, así como métodos basados en cadenas de Markov. La aplicación práctica de las estrategias planteadas se muestran para el parque eólico de SotaventoDepartamento de Ingeniería de Sistemas y Automática2012-11-2

How changes in international trade effect African growth?

The dismal growth performance of Africa in the last decades is one of the main worries of the global economy. In this paper we design an empirical model to explain how the growth rate of the economy is affected by changes in international trade. The main message of the model is that integration enables countries to exchange more varieties of goods and take advantage of some spillovers linked to the export-import process. These predictions are tested using GMM technique in a panel data performed on a sample of 22 countries belonging to the Sub-Sahara region over the period 1970-2002. The estimations suggest that Africa's growth rates are positively related to a more open attitude and to a greater integration in international markets. However, the empirical analysis also points out the need of a certain degree of 'social capacity' to ensure a successful integration. Finally, our results imply that African nations can profit from the economic growth of the OECD countries, as they are the main buyers of the region

Differences in the economic growth of Latin American countries. Integration effects and foreign direct investment influence

RESUMEN. This paper tries to explain the wide range of economic experiences among Latin American countries taking into account the role of capital formation and foreign direct investment (FDI) as a drive engine of growth. We design a model in which FDI generates endogenous, non zero growth. In particular, FDI brings about growth because it facilitates the entry of intermediate goods of more advanced technology in the host country. In contrast, if the entrance of FDI is obstructed or precluded by policy measures in the host country, the growth rate of the latter will be smaller or even zero. Integration enables countries to exchange more varieties of goods and eases technological diffusion through FDI. The predictions are tested empirically using GMM technique in a panel data performed by 18 Latin American countries over the period 1970-2000. The estimations suggest that Latin America?s growth rates are positively related to a more open attitude and to a greater integration in international markets. However, the empirical analysis also points out to the need of a certain degree of social capacity to ensure a successful integration. Finally, the empirical exercise confirms the positive connection between FDI and growth predicted by the model.ABSTRACT. El objetivo del presente trabajo es doble: en primer lugar, desarrollar un modelo de crecimiento endógeno que analice la influencia de la inversión extranjera directa en el crecimiento del PIB per cápita en términos reales de una economía en desarrollo; y, en segundo lugar, contrastar de forma empírica si la inversión extranjera ha contribuido al crecimiento del producto en América Latina teniendo en cuenta las diferencias entre países. Con este fin, se desarrolla un modelo de crecimiento endógeno que se aplica a dos escenarios: una economía abierta que permite la entrada de capitales foráneos y una economía cerrada que no autoriza la entrada de tales capitales. El crecimiento es mayor en el primero de los escenarios, y su motor es la inversión extranjera, que coexiste con el capital local. En el análisis empírico se utiliza la metodología de datos de panel con el fin de estudiar el efecto de la IDE en el crecimiento económico latinoamericano durante el periodo 1970-2000, y se explora en qué medida una mayor libertad económica y un entorno institucional adecuado han contribuido al crecimiento económico de América Latina

SMART GRIDS LABORATORIES INVENTORY 2015

A smart electricity grid opens the door to a myriad of new applications aimed at enhancing security of supply, sustainability and market competitiveness. Gathering detailed information about smart grid laboratories activities represents a primary need. In order to obtain a better picture of the ongoing Smart Grid developments, after the successful smart grid project survey initiated in 2011, we recently launched a focused on-line survey addressed to organisations owning or running Smart Grid laboratory facilities. The main objective is to publish aggregated information on a regular basis in order to provide an overview of the current facilities, to highlight trends in research and investments and to identify existing gaps.JRC.F.3-Energy Security, Systems and Marke

The immediate impacts of COVID-19 on European electricity systems: a first assessment and lessons learned

The worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 forced most countries to intervene with policies and actions—including lockdowns, social-distancing and smart working measures—aimed at mitigating the health system and socio-economic disruption risks. The electricity sector was impacted as well, with performance largely reflecting the changes in the industrial and commercial sectors operations and in the social behavior patterns. The most immediate consequences concerned the power demand profiles, the generation mix composition and the electricity price trends. As a matter of fact, the electricity sectors experienced a foretaste of the future, with higher renewable energy penetration and concerns for security of supply. This paper presents a systemic approach toward assessing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the power sector. This is aimed at supporting decision making—particularly for policy makers, regulators, and system operators—by quantifying shorter term effects and identifying longer term impacts of the pandemic waves on the power system. Various metrics are defined in different areas—system operation, security, and electricity markets—to quantify those impacts. The methodology is finally applied to the European power system to produce a comparative assessment of the effects of the lockdown in the European context

Dual role of Apolipoprotein D as long-term instructive factor and acute signal conditioning microglial secretory and phagocytic responses

Microglial cells are recognized as very dynamic brain cells, screening the environment and sensitive to signals from all other cell types in health and disease. Apolipoprotein D (ApoD), a lipid-binding protein of the Lipocalin family, is required for nervous system optimal function and proper development and maintenance of key neural structures. ApoD has a cell and state-dependent expression in the healthy nervous system, and increases its expression upon aging, damage or neurodegeneration. An extensive overlap exists between processes where ApoD is involved and those where microglia have an active role. However, no study has analyzed the role of ApoD in microglial responses. In this work, we test the hypothesis that ApoD, as an extracellular signal, participates in the intercellular crosstalk sensed by microglia and impacts their responses upon physiological aging or damaging conditions. We find that a significant proportion of ApoD-dependent aging transcriptome are microglia-specific genes, and show that lack of ApoD in vivo dysregulates microglial density in mouse hippocampus in an age-dependent manner. Murine BV2 and primary microglia do not express ApoD, but it can be internalized and targeted to lysosomes, where unlike other cell types it is transiently present. Cytokine secretion profiles and myelin phagocytosis reveal that ApoD has both long-term pre-conditioning effects on microglia as well as acute effects on these microglial immune functions, without significant modification of cell survival. ApoD-triggered cytokine signatures are stimuli (paraquat vs. Aβ oligomers) and sex-dependent. Acute exposure to ApoD induces microglia to switch from their resting state to a secretory and less phagocytic phenotype, while long-term absence of ApoD leads to attenuated cytokine induction and increased myelin uptake, supporting a role for ApoD as priming or immune training factor. This knowledge should help to advance our understanding of the complex responses of microglia during aging and neurodegeneration, where signals received along our lifespan are combined with damage-triggered acute signals, conditioning both beneficial roles and limitations of microglial functions

Estimación de costes ambientales derivados del corredor La Salve-Ibarrekolanda. Bilbao-España

This paper summarizes the Information on two alternative routes for a highway between the ''La Salve'' Bridge and Ibarrekolanda (Bilbao) in order to assess and compare the environmental costs. The first alternative would involve passing a high-speed road through a densely populated area whereas the second would have more characteristics of a ring road. As expected, the second alternative, which bypasses the built-up areas, would have less impact and lower environmental costs for the inhabitants of the area, not only during construction but also when the road is opened to traffic. In this alternative, the road would run along a steep slope which constitutes one side of the valley. Since the slope is already environmentally degraded and has no significant natural, agricultural or cultural value, important environment costs would not be incurred by locating the road there. Furthermore, this alternative would make it much easier to minimize undesirable effects.Se sintetizan los informes realizados con el fin de efectuar una primera comparación entre los costes ambientales que produciría un corredor entre el Puente de La Salve e Ibarrekolanda (Bilbao) según dos trazados netamente diferentes. El primero implicaría introducir unos viales de circulación rápida por una zona densamente habitada, mientras que el segundo tendría más bien carácter de circunvalación. Como cabía esperar, el trazado que evita las partes densamente edificadas repercutiría sobre la población cercana unos costes ambientales más reducidos (tanto durante la fase de construcción como durante su funcionamiento) y al realizarse sobre una ladera ambientalmente degradada, en la que no existen rasgos o elementos naturales, agroganaderos o culturales de importancia, tampoco daría lugar a costes de consideración a través de los mismos. Además, las posibilidades de minimización de efectos indeseables son muy superiores

European Atlas of Natural Radiation

Natural ionizing radiation is considered as the largest contributor to the collective effective dose received by the world population. The human population is continuously exposed to ionizing radiation from several natural sources that can be classified into two broad categories: high-energy cosmic rays incident on the Earth’s atmosphere and releasing secondary radiation (cosmic contribution); and radioactive nuclides generated during the formation of the Earth and still present in the Earth’s crust (terrestrial contribution). Terrestrial radioactivity is mostly produced by the uranium and thorium radioactive families together with potassium. In most circumstances, radon, a noble gas produced in the radioactive decay of uranium, is the most important contributor to the total dose. This Atlas aims to present the current state of knowledge of natural radioactivity, by giving general background information, and describing its various sources. This reference material is complemented by a collection of maps of Europe displaying the levels of natural radioactivity caused by different sources. It is a compilation of contributions and reviews received from more than 80 experts in their field: they come from universities, research centres, national and European authorities and international organizations. This Atlas provides reference material and makes harmonized datasets available to the scientific community and national competent authorities. In parallel, this Atlas may serve as a tool for the public to: • familiarize itself with natural radioactivity; • be informed about the levels of natural radioactivity caused by different sources; • have a more balanced view of the annual dose received by the world population, to which natural radioactivity is the largest contributor; • and make direct comparisons between doses from natural sources of ionizing radiation and those from man-made (artificial) ones, hence to better understand the latter.JRC.G.10-Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safet