Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Predator traits determine food-web architecture across ecosystems

Predator–prey interactions in natural ecosystems generate complex food webs that have a simple universal body-size architecture where predators are systematically larger than their prey. Food-web theory shows that the highest predator–prey body-mass ratios found in natural food webs may be especially important because they create weak interactions with slow dynamics that stabilize communities against perturbations and maintain ecosystem functioning. Identifying these vital interactions in real communities typically requires arduous identification of interactions in complex food webs. Here, we overcome this obstacle by developing predator-trait models to predict average body-mass ratios based on a database comprising 290 food webs from freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems across all continents. We analysed how species traits constrain body-size architecture by changing the slope of the predator–prey body-mass scaling. Across ecosystems, we found high body-mass ratios for predator groups with specific trait combinations including (1) small vertebrates and (2) large swimming or flying predators. Including the metabolic and movement types of predators increased the accuracy of predicting which species are engaged in high body-mass ratio interactions. We demonstrate that species traits explain striking patterns in the body-size architecture of natural food webs that underpin the stability and functioning of ecosystems, paving the way for community-level management of the most complex natural ecosystems

Early results from an angiosome-directed open surgical technique for venous arterialization in patients with critical lower limb ischemia

Background: Patients with critical lower limb ischemia without patent pedal arteries cannot be treated by the conventional arterial reconstruction. Venous arterialization has been suggested to improve limb salvage in this subgroup of patients but has not gained wide acceptance. We report our early experience after implementing deep and superficial venous arterialization of the lower limb. Materials and methods: Ten patients with critical ischemia and without crural or pedal arteries available for conventional bypass surgery or angioplasty were treated with distal venous arterialization. Inflow was from the most distal unobstructed segment. Run-off was the dorsal pedal venous arch (n=5), the dorsal pedal venous arch and a concomitant vein of the posterior tibial artery (n=3), or the dorsal pedal venous arch and a concomitant vein of the common plantar artery (n=2) depending on the location of the ischemic lesion. Venous valves were destroyed using antegrade valvulotomes, guide wires, knob needles, or retrograde valvulotomes via an extra incision. Results: Seven of the operated limbs were amputated after 23 (1–256) days (median [range]). The main reasons for amputation were lack of healing of either the original wound, of incisional wounds on the foot, or persisting pain at rest. In three cases, the bypass was open at the time of amputation. Two patients experienced complete wound healing after 231 and 342 days, respectively. By the end of follow-up, the last patient was ambulating with slow wound healing but without pain 309 days after surgery. Conclusion: Venous arterialization may be used as a treatment of otherwise unsalveable limbs. The success rate is, however, limited. Technical optimization of the technique is warranted