Epidemiology of Subpatent Plasmodium Falciparum Infection: Implications for Detection of Hotspots with Imperfect Diagnostics.

At the local level, malaria transmission clusters in hotspots, which may be a group of households that experience higher than average exposure to infectious mosquitoes. Active case detection often relying on rapid diagnostic tests for mass screen and treat campaigns has been proposed as a method to detect and treat individuals in hotspots. Data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in north-western Tanzania were used to examine the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and the relationship between household exposure and parasite density. Dried blood spots were collected from consenting individuals from four villages during a survey conducted in 2010. These were analysed by PCR for the presence of P. falciparum, with the parasite density of positive samples being estimated by quantitative PCR. Household exposure was estimated using the distance-weighted PCR prevalence of infection. Parasite density simulations were used to estimate the proportion of infections that would be treated using a screen and treat approach with rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) compared to targeted mass drug administration (tMDA) and Mass Drug Administration (MDA). Polymerase chain reaction PCR analysis revealed that of the 3,057 blood samples analysed, 1,078 were positive. Mean distance-weighted PCR prevalence per household was 34.5%. Parasite density was negatively associated with transmission intensity with the odds of an infection being subpatent increasing with household exposure (OR 1.09 per 1% increase in exposure). Parasite density was also related to age, being highest in children five to ten years old and lowest in those > 40 years. Simulations of different tMDA strategies showed that treating all individuals in households where RDT prevalence was above 20% increased the number of infections that would have been treated from 43 to 55%. However, even with this strategy, 45% of infections remained untreated. The negative relationship between household exposure and parasite density suggests that DNA-based detection of parasites is needed to provide adequate sensitivity in hotspots. Targeting MDA only to households with RDT-positive individuals may allow a larger fraction of infections to be treated. These results suggest that community-wide MDA, instead of screen and treat strategies, may be needed to successfully treat the asymptomatic, subpatent parasite reservoir and reduce transmission in similar settings

Prevalence and seroprevalence of Plasmodium infection in Myanmar reveals highly heterogeneous transmission and a large hidden reservoir of infection.

Malaria incidence in Myanmar has significantly reduced over recent years, however, completeness and timeliness of incidence data remain a challenge. The first ever nationwide malaria infection and seroprevalence survey was conducted in Myanmar in 2015 to better understand malaria epidemiology and highlight gaps in Annual Parasite Index (API) data. The survey was a cross-sectional two-stage stratified cluster-randomised household survey conducted from July-October 2015. Blood samples were collected from household members for ultra-sensitive PCR and serology testing for P. falciparum and P. vivax. Data was gathered on demography and a priori risk factors of participants. Data was analysed nationally and within each of four domains defined by API data. Prevalence and seroprevalence of malaria were 0.74% and 16.01% nationwide, respectively. Prevalent infection was primarily asymptomatic P. vivax, while P. falciparum was predominant in serology. There was large heterogeneity between villages and by domain. At the township level, API showed moderate correlation with P. falciparum seroprevalence. Risk factors for infection included socioeconomic status, domain, and household ownership of nets. Three K13 P. falciparum mutants were found in highly prevalent villages. There results highlight high heterogeneity of both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission between villages, accentuated by a large hidden reservoir of asymptomatic P. vivax infection not captured by incidence data, and representing challenges for malaria elimination. Village-level surveillance and stratification to guide interventions to suit local context and targeting of transmission foci with evidence of drug resistance would aid elimination efforts

Sensitive Detection of Plasmodium vivax Using a High-Throughput, Colourimetric Loop Mediated Isothermal Amplification (HtLAMP) Platform: A Potential Novel Tool for Malaria Elimination.

INTRODUCTION: Plasmodium vivax malaria has a wide geographic distribution and poses challenges to malaria elimination that are likely to be greater than those of P. falciparum. Diagnostic tools for P. vivax infection in non-reference laboratory settings are limited to microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests but these are unreliable at low parasitemia. The development and validation of a high-throughput and sensitive assay for P. vivax is a priority. METHODS: A high-throughput LAMP assay targeting a P. vivax mitochondrial gene and deploying colorimetric detection in a 96-well plate format was developed and evaluated in the laboratory. Diagnostic accuracy was compared against microscopy, antigen detection tests and PCR and validated in samples from malaria patients and community controls in a district hospital setting in Sabah, Malaysia. RESULTS: The high throughput LAMP-P. vivax assay (HtLAMP-Pv) performed with an estimated limit of detection of 1.4 parasites/ μL. Assay primers demonstrated cross-reactivity with P. knowlesi but not with other Plasmodium spp. Field testing of HtLAMP-Pv was conducted using 149 samples from symptomatic malaria patients (64 P. vivax, 17 P. falciparum, 56 P. knowlesi, 7 P. malariae, 1 mixed P. knowlesi/P. vivax, with 4 excluded). When compared against multiplex PCR, HtLAMP-Pv demonstrated a sensitivity for P. vivax of 95% (95% CI 87-99%); 61/64), and specificity of 100% (95% CI 86-100%); 25/25) when P. knowlesi samples were excluded. HtLAMP-Pv testing of 112 samples from asymptomatic community controls, 7 of which had submicroscopic P. vivax infections by PCR, showed a sensitivity of 71% (95% CI 29-96%; 5/7) and specificity of 93% (95% CI87-97%; 98/105). CONCLUSION: This novel HtLAMP-P. vivax assay has the potential to be a useful field applicable molecular diagnostic test for P. vivax infection in elimination settings

Hot Spot or Not: A Comparison of Spatial Statistical Methods to Predict Prospective Malaria Infections.

Within affected communities, Plasmodium falciparum infections may be skewed in distribution such that single or small clusters of households consistently harbour a disproportionate number of infected individuals throughout the year. Identifying these hotspots of malaria transmission would permit targeting of interventions and a more rapid reduction in malaria burden across the whole community. This study set out to compare different statistical methods of hotspot detection (SaTScan, kernel smoothing, weighted local prevalence) using different indicators (PCR positivity, AMA-1 and MSP-1 antibodies) for prediction of infection the following year. Two full surveys of four villages in Mwanza, Tanzania were completed over consecutive years, 2010-2011. In both surveys, infection was assessed using nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR). In addition in 2010, serologic markers (AMA-1 and MSP-119 antibodies) of exposure were assessed. Baseline clustering of infection and serological markers were assessed using three geospatial methods: spatial scan statistics, kernel analysis and weighted local prevalence analysis. Methods were compared in their ability to predict infection in the second year of the study using random effects logistic regression models, and comparisons of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for each model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect of varying radius size for the kernel and weighted local prevalence methods and maximum population size for the spatial scan statistic. Guided by AUC values, the kernel method and spatial scan statistics appeared to be more predictive of infection in the following year. Hotspots of PCR-detected infection and seropositivity to AMA-1 were predictive of subsequent infection. For the kernel method, a 1 km window was optimal. Similarly, allowing hotspots to contain up to 50% of the population was a better predictor of infection in the second year using spatial scan statistics than smaller maximum population sizes. Clusters of AMA-1 seroprevalence or parasite prevalence that are predictive of infection a year later can be identified using geospatial models. Kernel smoothing using a 1 km window and spatial scan statistics both provided accurate prediction of future infection

An open dataset of Plasmodium falciparum genome variation in 7,000 worldwide samples.

MalariaGEN is a data-sharing network that enables groups around the world to work together on the genomic epidemiology of malaria. Here we describe a new release of curated genome variation data on 7,000 Plasmodium falciparum samples from MalariaGEN partner studies in 28 malaria-endemic countries. High-quality genotype calls on 3 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and short indels were produced using a standardised analysis pipeline. Copy number variants associated with drug resistance and structural variants that cause failure of rapid diagnostic tests were also analysed.  Almost all samples showed genetic evidence of resistance to at least one antimalarial drug, and some samples from Southeast Asia carried markers of resistance to six commonly-used drugs. Genes expressed during the mosquito stage of the parasite life-cycle are prominent among loci that show strong geographic differentiation. By continuing to enlarge this open data resource we aim to facilitate research into the evolutionary processes affecting malaria control and to accelerate development of the surveillance toolkit required for malaria elimination

Pf7: an open dataset of Plasmodium falciparum genome variation in 20,000 worldwide samples

We describe the MalariaGEN Pf7 data resource, the seventh release of Plasmodium falciparum genome variation data from the MalariaGEN network.  It comprises over 20,000 samples from 82 partner studies in 33 countries, including several malaria endemic regions that were previously underrepresented.  For the first time we include dried blood spot samples that were sequenced after selective whole genome amplification, necessitating new methods to genotype copy number variations.  We identify a large number of newly emerging crt mutations in parts of Southeast Asia, and show examples of heterogeneities in patterns of drug resistance within Africa and within the Indian subcontinent.  We describe the profile of variations in the C-terminal of the csp gene and relate this to the sequence used in the RTS,S and R21 malaria vaccines.  Pf7 provides high-quality data on genotype calls for 6 million SNPs and short indels, analysis of large deletions that cause failure of rapid diagnostic tests, and systematic characterisation of six major drug resistance loci, all of which can be freely downloaded from the MalariaGEN website

Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum diversity in natural infections by deep sequencing.

Malaria elimination strategies require surveillance of the parasite population for genetic changes that demand a public health response, such as new forms of drug resistance. Here we describe methods for the large-scale analysis of genetic variation in Plasmodium falciparum by deep sequencing of parasite DNA obtained from the blood of patients with malaria, either directly or after short-term culture. Analysis of 86,158 exonic single nucleotide polymorphisms that passed genotyping quality control in 227 samples from Africa, Asia and Oceania provides genome-wide estimates of allele frequency distribution, population structure and linkage disequilibrium. By comparing the genetic diversity of individual infections with that of the local parasite population, we derive a metric of within-host diversity that is related to the level of inbreeding in the population. An open-access web application has been established for the exploration of regional differences in allele frequency and of highly differentiated loci in the P. falciparum genome

Multiple populations of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in Cambodia.

We describe an analysis of genome variation in 825 P. falciparum samples from Asia and Africa that identifies an unusual pattern of parasite population structure at the epicenter of artemisinin resistance in western Cambodia. Within this relatively small geographic area, we have discovered several distinct but apparently sympatric parasite subpopulations with extremely high levels of genetic differentiation. Of particular interest are three subpopulations, all associated with clinical resistance to artemisinin, which have skewed allele frequency spectra and high levels of haplotype homozygosity, indicative of founder effects and recent population expansion. We provide a catalog of SNPs that show high levels of differentiation in the artemisinin-resistant subpopulations, including codon variants in transporter proteins and DNA mismatch repair proteins. These data provide a population-level genetic framework for investigating the biological origins of artemisinin resistance and for defining molecular markers to assist in its elimination

Continuing Intense Malaria Transmission in Northern Uganda

Recent reports of reductions in malaria transmission in several African countries have resulted in optimism that malaria can be eliminated in parts of Africa where it is currently endemic. It is not known whether these trends are global or whether they are also present in areas where political instability has hindered effective malaria control. We determined malaria parasite carriage and age-dependent antibody responses to Plasmodium falciparum antigens in cross-sectional surveys in Apac, northern Uganda that was affected by political unrest. Under-five parasite prevalence was 55.8% (115/206) by microscopy and 71.9% (41/57) by polymerase chain reaction. Plasmodium ovale alone, or as a co-infection, was detected in 8.6% (12/139) and Plasmodium malariae in 4.3% (6/139) of the infections. Age seroprevalence curves gave no indication of recent changes in malaria transmission intensity. Malaria control remains a tremendous challenge in areas that have not benefited from large-scale interventions, illustrated here by the district of Apac