Measuring the cosmological bulk flow using the peculiar velocities of supernovae

We study large-scale coherent motion in our universe using the existing Type IA supernovae data. If the recently observed bulk flow is real, then some imprint must be left on supernovae motion. We run a series of Monte Carlo Markov Chain runs in various redshift bins and find a sharp contrast between the z 0.05 data. The$z < 0.05 data are consistent with the bulk flow in the direction (l,b)=({290^{+39}_{-31}}^{\circ}, {20^{+32}_{-32}}^{\circ}) with a magnitude of v_bulk = 188^{+119}_{-103} km/s at 68% confidence. The significance of detection (compared to the null hypothesis) is 95%. In contrast, z > 0.05 data (which contains 425 of the 557 supernovae in the Union2 data set) show no evidence for bulk flow. While the direction of the bulk flow agrees very well with previous studies, the magnitude is significantly smaller. For example, the Kashlinsky, et al.'s original bulk flow result of v_bulk > 600 km/s is inconsistent with our analysis at greater than 99.7% confidence level. Furthermore, our best-fit bulk flow velocity is consistent with the expectation for the \Lambda CDM model, which lies inside the 68% confidence limit.Comment: Version published in JCA

Climate change threatens the world's marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a primary management tool for mitigating threats to marine biodiversity 1,2 . MPAs and the species they protect, however, are increasingly being impacted by climate change. Here we show that, despite local protections, the warming associated with continued business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) 3 will likely result in further habitat and species losses throughout low-latitude and tropical MPAs 4,5 . With continued business-as-usual emissions, mean sea-surface temperatures within MPAs are projected to increase 0.035 °C per year and warm an additional 2.8 °C by 2100. Under these conditions, the time of emergence (the year when sea-surface temperature and oxygen concentration exceed natural variability) is mid-century in 42% of 309 no-take marine reserves. Moreover, projected warming rates and the existing 'community thermal safety margin' (the inherent buffer against warming based on the thermal sensitivity of constituent species) both vary among ecoregions and with latitude. The community thermal safety margin will be exceeded by 2050 in the tropics and by 2150 for many higher latitude MPAs. Importantly, the spatial distribution of emergence is stressor-specific. Hence, rearranging MPAs to minimize exposure to one stressor could well increase exposure to another. Continued business-as-usual emissions will likely disrupt many marine ecosystems, reducing the benefits of MPAs

Migration of the Antarctic Polar Front through the mid-Pleistocene transition: evidence and climatic implications

The Antarctic Polar Front is an important biogeochemical divider in the Southern Ocean. Laminated diatom mat deposits record episodes of massive flux of the diatom Thalassiothrix antarctica beneath the Antarctic Polar Front and provide a marker for tracking the migration of the Front through time. Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1091, 1093 and 1094 are the only deep piston cored record hitherto sampled from the sediments of the circumpolar biogenic opal belt. Mapping of diatom mat deposits between these sites indicates a glacial-interglacial front migration of up to 6 degrees of latitude in the early / mid Pleistocene. The mid Pleistocene transition marks a stepwise minimum 7 degree northward migration of the locus of the Polar Front sustained for about 450 kyr until an abrupt southward return to a locus similar to its modern position and further south than any mid-Pleistocene locus. This interval from a “900 ka event” that saw major cooling of the oceans and a ?13C minimum through to the 424 ka Mid-Brunhes Event at Termination V is also seemingly characterised by 1) sustained decreased carbonate in the subtropical south Atlantic, 2) reduced strength of Antarctic deep meridional circulation, 3) lower interglacial temperatures and lower interglacial atmospheric CO2 levels (by some 30 per mil) than those of the last 400 kyr, evidencing less complete deglaciation. This evidence is consistent with a prolonged period lasting 450 kyr of only partial ventilation of the deep ocean during interglacials and suggests that the mechanisms highlighted by recent hypotheses linking mid-latitude atmospheric conditions to the extent of deep ocean ventilation and carbon sequestration over glacial-interglacial cycles are likely in operation during the longer time scale characteristic of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. The cooling that initiated the “900 ka event” may have been driven by minima in insolation amplitude related to eccentricity modulation of precession that also affected low latitude climates as marked by threshold changes in the African monsoon system. The major thresholds in earth system behaviour through the Mid-Pleistocene Transition were likely governed by an interplay of the 100 kyr and 400 kyr eccentricity modulation of precession

A Pre-Landing Assessment of Regolith Properties at the InSight Landing Site

This article discusses relevant physical properties of the regolith at the Mars InSight landing site as understood prior to landing of the spacecraft. InSight will land in the northern lowland plains of Mars, close to the equator, where the regolith is estimated to be ≥3--5 m thick. These investigations of physical properties have relied on data collected from Mars orbital measurements, previously collected lander and rover data, results of studies of data and samples from Apollo lunar missions, laboratory measurements on regolith simulants, and theoretical studies. The investigations include changes in properties with depth and temperature. Mechanical properties investigated include density, grain-size distribution, cohesion, and angle of internal friction. Thermophysical properties include thermal inertia, surface emissivity and albedo, thermal conductivity and diffusivity, and specific heat. Regolith elastic properties not only include parameters that control seismic wave velocities in the immediate vicinity of the Insight lander but also coupling of the lander and other potential noise sources to the InSight broadband seismometer. The related properties include Poisson’s ratio, P- and S-wave velocities, Young’s modulus, and seismic attenuation. Finally, mass diffusivity was investigated to estimate gas movements in the regolith driven by atmospheric pressure changes. Physical properties presented here are all to some degree speculative. However, they form a basis for interpretation of the early data to be returned from the InSight mission.Additional co-authors: Nick Teanby and Sharon Keda

The 'Fall dump' - a new perspective on the role of a 'shade flora' in the annual cycle of diatom production and export flux

Investigations of diatom fluxes recorded in laminated sediments using scanning electron microscope techniques together with evidence from sediment trap studies have contributed to a reappraisal of the annual cycle of diatom production and export flux. We propose that where there is a strong seasonal thermocline and nutricline, a number of diatoms, hitherto regarded as typical sparse summer flora, characteristic of oligotrophic waters, are able to generate substantial production at depth. These species, including Rhizosolenia spp., Stephanopyxis palmeriana, Thalassiothrix spp. and some Coscinodiscus spp., may represent a "shade flora" that have adapted to grow in low-light conditions and/or to regulate their buoyancy to move between a deep nutrient source and the euphotic zone. Although rates of growth and primary production are substantially lower than species characteristic of "spring bloom" or "upwelling" conditions, the total primary production integrated over the (several-month) period of summer stratification may be as significant as the "spring bloom" or greater. The term fall or autumn bloom (as a counterpart of the "spring bloom") is therefore a misnomer. Whereas the "spring bloom" involves a rapid burst of reproduction and sedimentation, the "fall dump" is the sedimentation of a long-lived episode of production (lasting the duration of the seasonal thermocline) and triggered by the fall/winter mixing that breaks down stratification. The "fall dump" may produce as much, or in some cases more, export production than the "spring bloom". The results of this study suggest that a reorientation of thinking on diatom ecology and palaeoecology may be required