A Scalable MCEM Estimator for Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Models

Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space and time in large areal datasets remains challenging, as existing approaches are often (i) not scalable, (ii) designed for conditionally Gaussian outcome data, or (iii) are limited to cross-sectional and univariate outcomes. This paper proposes an MCEM estimation strategy for a family of latent-Gaussian multivariate spatio-temporal models that addresses these issues. The proposed estimator is applicable to a wide range of non-Gaussian outcomes, and implementations for binary and count outcomes are discussed explicitly. The methodology is illustrated on simulated data, as well as on weekly data of IS-related events in Syrian districts.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figure

Estimating Interdependence Across Space, Time and Outcomes in Binary Choice Models Using Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimators

Binary outcome models are frequently used in Political Science. However, such models have proven particularly dicult in dealing with interdependent data structures, including spatial autocorrelation, temporal autocorrelation, as well as simultaneity arising from endogenous binary regressors. In each of these cases, the primary source of the estimation challenge is the fact that jointly determined error terms in the reduced-form specication are analytically intractable due to a high-dimensional integral. To deal with this problem, simulation approaches have been proposed, but these are computationally intensive and impractical for datasets with thousands of observations. As a way forward, in this paper we demonstrate how to reduce the computational burder signicantly by (i) introducing analytically tractable pseudo maximum likelihoodestimators for latent binary choice models that exhibit interdependence across space, time and/or outcomes, and by (ii) proposing an implementation strategy that increases computational eciency considerably. Monte-Carlo experiments demonstrate that our estimators perform similarly to existing alternatives in terms of error, but require only a fraction of the computational cost

Sleep-wake misperception. A comprehensive analysis of a large sleep lab cohort

OBJECTIVES Sleep-wake misperception has mainly been reported in insomnia patients. Conversely, the present study aimed to assess the prevalence and correlates of sleep-wake misperception in a large cohort of patients with various sleep-wake disorders, all diagnosed along the third version of the International Classification of Sleep Disorders. METHODS We retrospectively included 2738 patients examined by polysomnography, who in addition estimated upon awakening their total sleep time, sleep onset latency and Wake after sleep onset (WASO). We computed subjective-objective mismatch by the formula (subjective - objective value)/objective value ×100; negative and positive values indicated under- and overestimation, respectively. RESULTS In the entire sample, the magnitude of under- and overestimation of total sleep time was similar, but varied significantly between diagnostic groups, with insomnia and insufficient sleep syndrome showing the most pronounced underestimation and REM parasomnia and circadian rhythm disorders showing the most pronounced overestimation of total sleep time. In all diagnostic categories, a majority tended to overestimate their sleep onset latency and to underestimate the amount of WASO. Younger age was independently correlated with underestimation of total sleep time and WASO, and with overestimation of sleep onset latency. Overestimation of sleep onset latency independently correlated to an increased latency to N3 sleep stage on polysomnography. CONCLUSIONS While sleep-wake misperception is highly prevalent in all sleep-wake disorders, significant differences exist in magnitude of under- and overestimation between distinct diagnostic groups

Third-generation continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices: a comparative outcome analysis by device type.

AIMS Continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (CF-LVADs) have become a standard of care in end-stage heart failure. Limited data exist comparing outcomes of HeartMate3 (HM3) and HeartWare HVAD (HW). We aimed to compare midterm outcomes of these devices. METHODS AND RESULTS Investigator-initiated retrospective-observational comparative analysis of all patients who underwent primary LVAD implantation of either HM3 or HW at our centre between January 2010 and December 2020. Data were derived from a prospective registry. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and heart transplantation. Secondary endpoints included device-related major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events, which included major bleeding, major neurological dysfunction (defined as persisting neurological impairment for ≥24 h), device-related major infection (excluding driveline infections), major device malfunctions leading to re-intervention or partial device exchange (pump failure, outflow-graft twist or failure, controller failure, battery failure, patient cable failure, but excluding pump thrombosis), and pump thrombosis. Further secondary endpoints included right heart failure, gastrointestinal bleeding, driveline infections, and surgical re-interventions. The secondary outcomes were analysed not only for the first event but also for recurrent events. The analysis included competing risks analysis and recurrent event regression analysis, with adjustment for confounders age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) level. Out of 106 primary CF-LVAD implantations, 36 (34%) received HM3 and 70 (66%) received HW. Median follow-up was 1.48 years [interquartile range 0.67, 2.41]. HM3 was more often implanted in men (91.7% vs. 72.9%, P = 0.024); patients were older (median 61 years [54, 66.5] vs. 52.5 years [43, 60], P < 0.001), had a higher BMI (median 26.7 kg/m2 [23.4, 29.0] vs. 24.3 kg/m2 [20.7, 27.4], P = 0.013), had more comorbidities, and were more likely targeted for destination therapy (36.1% vs. 14.3%, P = 0.010). Death occurred in 33.3% of HM3 patients, compared with 22.9% of HW patients, P = 0.247 (probability of survival at 4 years, 54.7% vs. 74.1%, P = 0.296). After adjustment for confounders, we observed a significant six-fold risk increase in device malfunctions for HW [hazard ratio (HR) 6.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.89, 22.32], P = 0.003], but no significant differences in pump thrombosis (P = 0.173) or overall survival (P = 0.801). CONCLUSIONS Comparing midterm outcomes between HM3 and HW for LVAD support from a prospective registry, HW patients had a significantly higher risk of device malfunctions. No significant differences were evident between devices in overall survival and in respect to most outcomes

Canakinumab in patients with COVID-19 and type 2 diabetes - A multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Patients with type 2 diabetes and obesity have chronic activation of the innate immune system possibly contributing to the higher risk of hyperinflammatory response to SARS-CoV2 and severe COVID-19 observed in this population. We tested whether interleukin-1β (IL-1β) blockade using canakinumab improves clinical outcome. METHODS: CanCovDia was a multicenter, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to assess the efficacy of canakinumab plus standard-of-care compared with placebo plus standard-of-care in patients with type 2 diabetes and a BMI > 25 kg/m$^{2}$ hospitalised with SARS-CoV2 infection in seven tertiary-hospitals in Switzerland. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to a single intravenous dose of canakinumab (body weight adapted dose of 450-750 mg) or placebo. Canakinumab and placebo were compared based on an unmatched win-ratio approach based on length of survival, ventilation, ICU stay and hospitalization at day 29. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510493. FINDINGS: Between October 17, 2020, and May 12, 2021, 116 patients were randomly assigned with 58 in each group. One participant dropped out in each group for the primary analysis. At the time of randomization, 85 patients (74·6 %) were treated with dexamethasone. The win-ratio of canakinumab vs placebo was 1·08 (95 % CI 0·69-1·69; p = 0·72). During four weeks, in the canakinumab vs placebo group 4 (7·0%) vs 7 (12·3%) participants died, 11 (20·0 %) vs 16 (28·1%) patients were on ICU, 12 (23·5 %) vs 11 (21·6%) were hospitalised for more than 3 weeks, respectively. Median ventilation time at four weeks in the canakinumab vs placebo group was 10 [IQR 6.0, 16.5] and 16 days [IQR 14.0, 23.0], respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in HbA1c after four weeks despite a lower number of anti-diabetes drug administered in patients treated with canakinumab. Finally, high-sensitive CRP and IL-6 was lowered by canakinumab. Serious adverse events were reported in 13 patients (11·4%) in each group. INTERPRETATION: In patients with type 2 diabetes who were hospitalised with COVID-19, treatment with canakinumab in addition to standard-of-care did not result in a statistically significant improvement of the primary composite outcome. Patients treated with canakinumab required significantly less anti-diabetes drugs to achieve similar glycaemic control. Canakinumab was associated with a prolonged reduction of systemic inflammation. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation grant #198415 and University of Basel. Novartis supplied study medication

Language, Religion, and Ethnic Civil War

Are certain ethnic cleavages more conflict-prone than others? While only few scholars focus on the contents of ethnicity, most of those who do argue that political violence is more likely to occur along religious divisions than linguistic ones. We challenge this claim by analyzing the path from linguistic differences to ethnic civil war along three theoretical steps: (1) the perception of grievances by group members, (2) rebel mobilization, and (3) government accommodation of rebel demands. Our argument is tested with a new data set of ethnic cleavages that records multiple linguistic and religious segments for ethnic groups from 1946 to 2009. Adopting a relational perspective, we assess ethnic differences between potential challengers and the politically dominant group in each country. Our findings indicate that intrastate conflict is more likely within linguistic dyads than among religious ones. Moreover, we find no support for the thesis that Muslim groups are particularly conflict-prone

Procalcitonin for diagnosis of infection and guide to antibiotic decisions: past, present and future

There are a number of limitations to using conventional diagnostic markers for patients with clinical suspicion of infection. As a consequence, unnecessary and prolonged exposure to antimicrobial agents adversely affect patient outcomes, while inappropriate antibiotic therapy increases antibiotic resistance. A growing body of evidence supports the use of procalcitonin (PCT) to improve diagnosis of bacterial infections and to guide antibiotic therapy. For patients with upper and lower respiratory tract infection, post-operative infections and for severe sepsis patients in the intensive care unit, randomized-controlled trials have shown a benefit of using PCT algorithms to guide decisions about initiation and/or discontinuation of antibiotic therapy. For some other types of infections, observational studies have shown promising first results, but further intervention studies are needed before use of PCT in clinical routine can be recommended. The aim of this review is to summarize the current evidence for PCT in different infections and clinical settings, and discuss the reliability of this marker when used with validated diagnostic algorithms

Diverse Applications of Nanomedicine

The design and use of materials in the nanoscale size range for addressing medical and health-related issues continues to receive increasing interest. Research in nanomedicine spans a multitude of areas, including drug delivery, vaccine development, antibacterial, diagnosis and imaging tools, wearable devices, implants, high-throughput screening platforms, etc. using biological, nonbiological, biomimetic, or hybrid materials. Many of these developments are starting to be translated into viable clinical products. Here, we provide an overview of recent developments in nanomedicine and highlight the current challenges and upcoming opportunities for the field and translation to the clinic. \ua9 2017 American Chemical Society