El Niño and the delayed action oscillator

We study the dynamics of the El Niño phenomenon using the mathematical model of delayedaction oscillator (DAO). Topics such as the influence of the annual cycle, global warming, stochastic influences due to weather conditions and even off-equatorial heat-sinks can all be discussed using only modest analytical and numerical resources. Thus the DAO allows for a pedagogical introduction to the science of El Niño and La Niña while at the same time avoiding the need for large-scale computing resources normally associated with much more sophisticated coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. It is an approach which is ideally suited for student projects both at high school and undergraduate level

Measuring Responsible Gambling amongst Players: Development of the Positive Play Scale

The modern gambling industry has, by-in-large, assumed a duty of care to minimize the risks associated with gambling, which has manifested in responsible gambling (RG) programming (e.g., educating players about the odds of success). The current study fills a void in gambling operator

Interannual variability of the Tropical Atlantic independent of and associated with ENSO: Part II. The South Tropical Atlantic

Two dominant ocean-atmosphere modes of variability on interannual timescales were defined in Part I of this work, namely, the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) and South Tropical Atlantic (STA) modes. In this paper we focus on the STA mode that covers the equatorial and sub-tropical South Atlantic. We show that STA events occurring in conjunction with ENSO have a preference for the southern summer season and seem to be forced by an atmospheric wave train emanating from the central tropical Pacific and travelling via South America, in addition to the more direct ENSO-induced change in the Walker circulation. They are lagged by one season from the peak of ENSO. These events show little evidence for other-than-localised coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. In contrast, STA events occurring in the absence of ENSO favour the southern winter season. They appear to be triggered by a Southern Hemisphere wave train emanating from the Pacific sector, and then exhibit features of a self-sustaining climate mode in the tropical Atlantic. The southward shift of the inter tropical convergence zone that occurs during the warm phase of such an event triggers an extra tropical wave train that propagates downstream in the Southern Hemisphere. We present a unified view of the NTA and STA modes through our observational analysis of the interannnual tropical Atlantic variability

Multiple causes of interannual sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

The eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean is subject to interannual fluctuations of sea surface temperatures, with climatic impacts on the surrounding continents. The dynamic mechanism underlying Atlantic temperature variability is thought to be similar to that of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific, where air-sea coupling leads to a positive feedback between surface winds in the western basin, sea surface temperature in the eastern basin, and equatorial oceanic heat content. Here we use a suite of observational data, climate reanalysis products, and general circulation model simulations to reassess the factors driving the interannual variability. We show that some of the warm events can not be explained by previously identified equatorial wind stress forcing and ENSO-like dynamics. Instead, these events are driven by a mechanism in which surface wind forcing just north of the equator induces warm ocean temperature anomalies that are subsequently advected toward the equator. We find the surface wind patterns are associated with long-lived subtropical sea surface temperature anomalies and suggest they therefore reflect a link between equatorial and subtropical Atlantic variability

Linked trends in the South Pacific sea ice edge and Southern Oscillation Index

Previous work have shown that sea ice variability in the South Pacific is associated with extratropical atmospheric anomalies linked to the Southern Oscillation (SO). Over a 32 year period (1982–2013), our study shows that the trend in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also able to quantitatively explain the trends in sea ice edge, drift, and surface winds in this region. On average two thirds of the winter ice edge trend in this sector, linked to ice drift and surface winds, could be explained by the positive SOI trend, thus subjecting the ice edge to strong decadal SO variability. If this relationship holds, the negative SOI trend prior to the recent satellite era suggests that ice edge trends opposite to that of the recent record over a similar time scale. Significant low-frequency ice edge trends, linked to the natural variability of SO, are superimposed upon any trends expected of anthropogenic forcing

An Investigation of Short-Range Climate Predictability in the Tropical Pacific

The predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was investigated by analyzing observed sea levels, surface stresses, and subsurface temperatures simulated with an oceanic general circulation model forced by observed winds. In addition, a large ensemble of prediction experiments has been conducted with a simplified coupled ocean-atmosphere model consisting of an oceanic general circulation model coupled to a simple atmospheric feedback model. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that the ENSO-related interannual variability in the tropical Pacific can be understood as a cycle within the coupled ocean-atmosphere system which is inherently predictable. This cycle consists of an accumulation of warm water in the western Pacific during the cold phases of ENSO and a loss of this heat during its warm phases. The results of the prediction experiments with our simplified coupled ocean-atmosphere model indicate that the phase of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is predictable two to three seasons in advance with our simplified coupled system, whose dynamics is governed by the ocean. We found a strong dependence of the skills on season, with spring SSTs being least predictable