A Bayesian framework for functional time series analysis

The paper introduces a general framework for statistical analysis of functional time series from a Bayesian perspective. The proposed approach, based on an extension of the popular dynamic linear model to Banach-space valued observations and states, is very flexible but also easy to implement in many cases. For many kinds of data, such as continuous functions, we show how the general theory of stochastic processes provides a convenient tool to specify priors and transition probabilities of the model. Finally, we show how standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior simulation can be employed under consistent discretizations of the data

State Space Models in R

We give an overview of some of the software tools available in R, either as built- in functions or contributed packages, for the analysis of state space models. Several illustrative examples are included, covering constant and time-varying models for both univariate and multivariate time series. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods to obtain parameter estimates are considered.

Absolute calibration and beam reconstruction of MITO (a ground-based instrument in the millimetric region)

An efficient sky data reconstruction derives from a precise characterization of the observing instrument. Here we describe the reconstruction of performances of a single-pixel 4-band photometer installed at MITO (Millimeter and Infrared Testagrigia Observatory) focal plane. The strategy of differential sky observations at millimeter wavelengths, by scanning the field of view at constant elevation wobbling the subreflector, induces a good knowledge of beam profile and beam-throw amplitude, allowing efficient data recovery. The problems that arise estimating the detectors throughput by drift scanning on planets are shown. Atmospheric transmission, monitored by skydip technique, is considered for deriving final responsivities for the 4 channels using planets as primary calibrators.Comment: 14 pages, 6 fiugres, accepted for pubblication by New Astronomy (25 March

An R Package for Dynamic Linear Models

We describe an R package focused on Bayesian analysis of dynamic linear models. The main features of the package are its flexibility to deal with a variety of constant or time-varying, univariate or multivariate models, and the numerically stable singular value decomposition-based algorithms used for filtering and smoothing. In addition to the examples of "out-of-the-box" use, we illustrate how the package can be used in advanced applications to implement a Gibbs sampler for a user-specified model.

An R Package for Dynamic Linear Models

We describe an <b>R</b> package focused on Bayesian analysis of dynamic linear models. The main features of the package are its flexibility to deal with a variety of constant or time-varying, univariate or multivariate models, and the numerically stable singular value decomposition-based algorithms used for filtering and smoothing. In addition to the examples of "out-of-the-box" use, we illustrate how the package can be used in advanced applications to implement a Gibbs sampler for a user-specified model

Rotation in galaxy clusters from MUSIC simulations with the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect

We propose in this work its application for the detection of possible coherent rotational motions in the hot intra-cluster medium. We select a sample of massive, relaxed and rotating galaxy clusters from Marenostrum-mUltidark SImulations of galaxy Clusters (MUSIC), and we produce mock maps of the temperature distortion produced by the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect by exploring six different lines of sight, in the best observational condition. These maps are compared with the expected signal computed from a suitable theoretical model in two cases: (i) focusing only on the contribution from the rotation, and (ii) accounting also for the cluster bulk motion. We find that the parameters of the model assumed for the radial profile of the rotational velocity, averaged over the considered lines of sight, are in agreement within two standard deviations at most with independent estimates from the simulation data, without being significantly affected by the presence of the cluster bulk term. The amplitude of the rotational signal is, on average, of the order of 23 per cent of the total signal accounting also for the cluster bulk motion, and its values are consistent with the literature. The projected bulk velocity of the cluster is also recovered at the different lines of sight, with values in agreement with the simulation dataASB acknowledges funding from Sapienza Università di Roma - Progetti per Avvio alla Ricerca Anno 2017, prot. AR11715C82402BC

Le elezioni regionali in Schleswig-Holstein e in Nordreno-Vestfalia. Tra contingenze regionali, “Effetto Merkel” e suggestioni europee

Nel periodo tra il 7 ed il 14 maggio 2017 in Germania si sono tenute due consultazioni per il rinnovo dei parlamenti regionali, rispettivamente in Schleswig-Holstein e in Nordreno-Vestfalia. Nel caso di questo ultimo Land oltre 13 milioni di cittadini sono stati chiamati alle urne per il rinnovo del parlamento regionale (Landtag) della regione più popolosa e una delle economicamente più forti della Germania. I due appuntamenti rivestivano una rilevanza ancora maggiore del solito, in quanto rappresentavano i due ultimi test elettorali previsti in Germania prima delle elezioni del Bundestag del prossimo 24 settembre. In queste ultime, i tedeschi si troveranno di fronte all’alternativa se rinnovare la fiducia ad nuovo governo guidato dalla cancelliera uscente, Angela Merkel (Unione Cristiano-Democratica – CDU), o dal suo principale sfidante, l’ex presidente del Parlamento europeo, Martin Schulz (Partito Socialdemocratico Tedesco – SPD). Inoltre, insieme alle omologhe elezioni regionali celebrate nella Saar lo scorso 26 marzo, queste elezioni offrivano l’opportunità di verificare la tenuta delle diverse coalizioni di governo formatesi nelle precedenti legislature nei tre Länder, e più in generale di esaminare in quale misura le tematiche locali e quelle di portata nazionale ed europea abbiano effettivamente inciso sugli orientamenti degli elettori nell’occasione

Millimeter and sub-millimeter atmospheric performance at Dome C combining radiosoundings and ATM synthetic spectra

The reliability of astronomical observations at millimeter and sub-millimeter wavelengths closely depends on a low vertical content of water vapor as well as on high atmospheric emission stability. Although Concordia station at Dome C (Antarctica) enjoys good observing conditions in this atmospheric spectral windows, as shown by preliminary site-testing campaigns at different bands and in, not always, time overlapped periods, a dedicated instrument able to continuously determine atmospheric performance for a wide spectral range is not yet planned. In the absence of such measurements, in this paper we suggest a semi-empirical approach to perform an analysis of atmospheric transmission and emission at Dome C to compare the performance for 7 photometric bands ranging from 100 GHz to 2 THz. Radiosoundings data provided by the Routine Meteorological Observations (RMO) Research Project at Concordia station are corrected by temperature and humidity errors and dry biases and then employed to feed ATM (Atmospheric Transmission at Microwaves) code to generate synthetic spectra in the wide spectral range from 100 GHz to 2 THz. To quantify the atmospheric contribution in millimeter and sub-millimeter observations we are considering several photometric bands in which atmospheric quantities are integrated. The observational capabilities of this site at all the selected spectral bands are analyzed considering monthly averaged transmissions joined to the corresponding fluctuations. Transmission and pwv statistics at Dome C derived by our semi-empirical approach are consistent with previous works. It is evident the decreasing of the performance at high frequencies. We propose to introduce a new parameter to compare the quality of a site at different spectral bands, in terms of high transmission and emission stability, the Site Photometric Quality Factor.Comment: accepted to MNRAS with minor revision

Peranan pendidikan dalam pembinaan kebudayaan nasional di daerah Jambi

Buku ini ditulis dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui faktor penghambat dan faktor pendukung pengejawantahan kebudayaan nasional yang ditransformasikan melalui pranata keluarga, pranata sekolah, pranata ekonomi , pranata agama, dan pranata politik

Una nuova Germania per una nuova Europa? Le elezioni per il Bundestag del 24 settembre 2017 tra riassetto politico interno e necessario riequilibrio europeo

Il voto parlamentare del 24 settembre 2017 è stato definito come un momento di passaggio, una cesura tra un’epoca storica ed un’altra. Secondo alcuni, dalle urne sarebbe uscita una Germania inedita rispetto al passato, con equilibri partitici, politici, istituzionali e forse persino culturali diversi da quelli finora conosciuti. E’ innegabile che il risultato delle elezioni per il Bundestag contenga elementi di assoluta novità, sia da un punto di vista quantitativo che qualitativo, ed è altrettanto palese che dal giorno successivo al voto gli esponenti politici tedeschi, a cominciare dalla pur riconfermata Cancelliera Angela Merkel, dovranno affrontare un contesto completamente diverso da quello nel quale avevano operato fino al giorno prima. Al tempo stesso, gli attori politici della RFT saranno impegnati nelle prossime settimane a verificare quali possibilità sussistano per formare un nuovo Esecutivo, possibilmente in grado di guidare il Paese per tutta la legislatura, fornendo risposte adeguate alle tante domande che il voto parlamentare ha sollevato. Il presente lavoro si articola in sei parti: nella prima e nella seconda si darà conto l’esito della consultazione elettorale, evidenziando nel dettaglio i risultati conseguiti da ciascun partito e quali possibili alleanze politiche si profilano per la formazione del prossimo Gabinetto di Governo, ed analizzando le condizioni in cui versano le singole formazioni politiche all’indomani del voto, e come ciascuna di esse potrà profilarsi nel dibattito politico ed istituzionale che verrà; nella terza parte verranno descritti i temi che maggiormente hanno condizionato le scelte degli elettori nella consultazione; nella quarta si analizzeranno le caratteristiche del voto per il partito di estrema destra xenofoba Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), mentre nella quinta parte si verificheranno le ragioni che hanno determinato la composizione in termini numerici del futuro Bundestag; nella sesta ed ultima parte, infine, si descriveranno quali influenze potrà produrre l’esito della consultazione sulle posizioni e le strategie che la Germania adotterà in ambito nazionale, europeo ed internazionale nei mesi a venire.The parliamentary vote of 24 September 2017 was defined as a passing moment, a break between a historical era and another. According to some, the odds would leave an unprecedented Germany respect to the past, with political, institutional, and perhaps even cultural equilibriums different from those so far known. It is undeniable that the outcome of the Bundestag elections contains elements of absolute novelty, both from a quantitative and qualitative point of view, and it is equally obvious that from the day following the vote German political exponents, beginning with the re-affirmed Chancellor Angela Merkel, will have to to face a completely different context from what they had been up to the day before. At the same time, the RFT political actors will be engaged in the coming weeks to see which Possibilities exist to form a new Executive, possibly able to drive the country for throughout the legislature, providing adequate answers to the many questions raised by the parliamentary vote