A methodology review on the incremental prognostic value of computed tomography biomarkers in addition to Framingham risk score in predicting cardiovascular disease: the use of association, discrimination and reclassification

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) biomarkers claim to improve cardiovascular risk stratification. This review focuses on significant differences in incremental measures between adequate and inadequate reporting practise. METHODS: Studies included were those that used Framingham Risk Score as a baseline and described the incremental value of adding calcium score or CT coronary angiogram in predicting cardiovascular risk. Searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane Central were performed with no language restriction. RESULTS: Thirty five studies consisting of 206,663 patients (men = 118,114, 55.1%) were included. The baseline Framingham Risk Score included the 1998, 2002 and 2008 iterations. Selective reporting, inconsistent reference groupings and thresholds were found. Twelve studies (34.3%) had major and 23 (65.7%) had minor alterations and the respective Δ AUC were significantly different (p = 0.015). When the baseline model performed well, the Δ AUC was relatively lower with the addition of a CT biomarker (Spearman coefficient = − 0.46, p < 0.0001; n = 33; 76 pairs of data). Other factors that influenced AUC performance included exploration of data analysis, calibration, validation, multivariable and AUC documentation (all p < 0.05). Most studies (68.7%) that reported categorical NRI (n = 16; 46 pairs of data) subjectively drew strong conclusions along with other poor reporting practices. However, no significant difference in values of NRI was found between adequate and inadequate reporting. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread practice of poor reporting particularly association, discrimination, reclassification, calibration and validation undermines the claimed incremental value of CT biomarkers over the Framingham Risk Score alone. Inadequate reporting of discrimination inflates effect estimate, however, that is not necessarily the case for reclassification.This research was funded by the National Insitute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula (NIHR CLAHRC South West Peninsula)

Pregnancies in older women living with HIV in the UK and Ireland.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to compare maternal characteristics and pregnancy outcomes in women aged < 40 years and ≥ 40 years in a large unselected population of HIV-positive women delivering in the UK and Ireland between 2000 and 2014. METHODS: Comprehensive population-based surveillance data on all HIV-positive pregnant women and their children seen for care in the UK and Ireland are collected through the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood. All singleton and multiple pregnancies reported by the end of June 2015 resulting in live birth or stillbirth to women diagnosed with HIV infection before delivery and delivering in 2000-2014 were included. Logistic regression models were fitted in analyses examining the association between older maternal age and specific outcomes (preterm delivery and stillbirth). RESULTS: Among 15 501 pregnancies in HIV-positive women, the proportion in older women (≥ 40 years) increased from 2.1% (73 of 3419) in 2000-2004 to 8.9% (510 of 5748) in 2010-2014 (P < 0.001). Compared with pregnancies in younger women, those in older women were more likely to result in multiple birth (3.0 vs. 1.9% in younger women; P = 0.03), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 2.39; P = 0.004) or an infant with a chromosomal abnormality (1.6 vs. 0.2%, respectively; P < 0.001). However, there was no increased risk of preterm delivery, low birth weight or mother-to-child HIV transmission among older mothers. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a significant increase over time in the proportion of deliveries to women living with HIV aged ≥ 40 years, which has implications for pregnancy management, given their increased risk of multiple births, stillbirth and chromosomal anomalies, as also apparent in the general population

Duration of ruptured membranes and mother-to-child HIV transmission: a prospective population-based surveillance study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between duration of rupture of membranes (ROM) and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN: The National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood (NSHPC) undertakes comprehensive population-based surveillance of HIV in pregnant women and children. SETTING: UK and Ireland. POPULATION: A cohort of 2398 singleton pregnancies delivered vaginally, or by emergency caesarean section, in women on cART in pregnancy during the period 2007-2012 with information on duration of ROM; HIV infection status was available for 1898 infants. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of NSHPC data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of MTCT. RESULTS: In 2116 pregnancies delivered at term, the median duration of ROM was 3 hours 30 minutes (interquartile range, IQR 1-8 hours). The overall MTCT rate for women delivering at term with duration of ROM ≥4 hours was 0.64% compared with 0.34% for ROM <4 hours, with no significant difference between the groups (OR 1.90, 95% CI 0.45-7.97). In women delivering at term with a viral load of <50 copies/ml, there was no evidence of a difference in MTCT rates with duration of ROM ≥4 hours, compared with <4 hours (0.14% for ≥4 hours versus 0.12% for <4 hour; OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.07-18.27). Among infants born preterm with infection status available, there were no transmissions in 163 deliveries where the maternal viral load was <50 copies/ml. CONCLUSIONS: No association was found between duration of ROM and MTCT in women taking cART. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Rupture of membranes of more than 4 hours is not associated with MTCT of HIV in women on effective ART delivering at term

Injury Risk Estimation Expertise Assessing the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz

Background: Available methods for screening anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury risk are effective but limited in application as they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis. A potential efficient alternative to biomechanical screening is skilled movement analysis via visual inspection (ie, having experts estimate injury risk factors based on observations of athletes’ movements). Purpose: To develop a brief, valid psychometric assessment of ACL injury risk factor estimation skill: the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz (ACL-IQ). Study Design: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 660 individuals participated in various stages of the study, including athletes, physicians, physical therapists, athletic trainers, exercise science researchers/students, and members of the general public in the United States. The ACL-IQ was fully computerized and made available online (www.ACL-IQ.org). Item sampling/reduction, reliability analysis, cross-validation, and convergent/discriminant validity analysis were conducted to optimize the efficiency and validity of the assessment. Results: Psychometric optimization techniques identified a short (mean time, 2 min 24 s), robust, 5-item assessment with high reliability (test-retest: r = 0.90) and consistent discriminability (average difference of exercise science professionals vs general population: Cohen d = 1.98). Exercise science professionals and general population individuals scored 74% and 53% correct, respectively. Convergent and discriminant validity was demonstrated. Scores on the ACL-IQ were most associated with ACL knowledge and various cue utilities and were least associated with domain-general spatial/decision-making ability, personality, or other demographic variables. Overall, 23% of the total sample (40% exercise science professionals; 6% general population) performed better than or equal to the ACL nomogram. Conclusion: This study presents the results of a systematic approach to assess individual differences in ACL injury risk factor estimation skill; the assessment approach is efficient (ie, it can be completed in\3 min) and psychometrically robust. The results provide evidence that some individuals have the ability to visually estimate ACL injury risk factors more accurately than other instrument-based ACL risk estimation methods (ie, ACL nomogram). The ACL-IQ provides the foundation for assessing the efficacy of observational ACL injury risk factor assessment (ie, does simple skilled visual inspection reduce ACL injuries?). It also provides a representative task environment that can be used to increase our understanding of the perceptual-cognitive mechanisms underlying observational movement analysis and to improve injury risk assessment performance

Spatially Explicit Data: Stewardship and Ethical Challenges in Science

Scholarly communication is at an unprecedented turning point created in part by the increasing saliency of data stewardship and data sharing. Formal data management plans represent a new emphasis in research, enabling access to data at higher volumes and more quickly, and the potential for replication and augmentation of existing research. Data sharing has recently transformed the practice, scope, content, and applicability of research in several disciplines, in particular in relation to spatially specific data. This lends exciting potentiality, but the most effective ways in which to implement such changes, particularly for disciplines involving human subjects and other sensitive information, demand consideration. Data management plans, stewardship, and sharing, impart distinctive technical, sociological, and ethical challenges that remain to be adequately identified and remedied. Here, we consider these and propose potential solutions for their amelioration

A prospective cohort study assessing clinical referral management & workforce allocation within a UK regional medical genetics service

Abstract Ensuring patient access to genomic information in the face of increasing demand requires clinicians to develop innovative ways of working. This paper presents the first empirical prospective observational cohort study of UK multi-disciplinary genetic service delivery. It describes and explores collaborative working practices including the utilisation and role of clinical geneticists and non-medical genetic counsellors. Six hundred and fifty new patients referred to a regional genetics service were tracked through 850 clinical contacts until discharge. Referral decisions regarding allocation of lead health professional assigned to the case were monitored, including the use of initial clinical contact guidelines. Significant differences were found in the cases led by genetic counsellors and those led by clinical geneticists. Around a sixth, 16.8% (109/650) of referrals were dealt with by a letter back to the referrer or re-directed to another service provider and 14.8% (80/541) of the remaining patients chose not to schedule an appointment. Of the remaining 461 patients, genetic counsellors were allocated as lead health professional for 46.2% (213/461). A further 61 patients did not attend. Of those who did, 86% (345/400) were discharged after one or two appointments. Genetic counsellors contributed to 95% (784/825) of total patient contacts. They provided 93.7% (395/432) of initial contacts and 26.8% (106/395) of patients were discharged at that point. The information from this study informed a planned service re-design. More research is needed to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of different models of collaborative multi-disciplinary working within genetics services. Keywords (MeSH terms) Genetic Services, Genetic Counseling, Interdisciplinary Communication, Cohort Studies, Delivery of Healthcare, Referral and Consultation

Considering the Case for Biodiversity Cycles: Reexamining the Evidence for Periodicity in the Fossil Record

Medvedev and Melott (2007) have suggested that periodicity in fossil biodiversity may be induced by cosmic rays which vary as the Solar System oscillates normal to the galactic disk. We re-examine the evidence for a 62 million year (Myr) periodicity in biodiversity throughout the Phanerozoic history of animal life reported by Rohde & Mueller (2005), as well as related questions of periodicity in origination and extinction. We find that the signal is robust against variations in methods of analysis, and is based on fluctuations in the Paleozoic and a substantial part of the Mesozoic. Examination of origination and extinction is somewhat ambiguous, with results depending upon procedure. Origination and extinction intensity as defined by RM may be affected by an artifact at 27 Myr in the duration of stratigraphic intervals. Nevertheless, when a procedure free of this artifact is implemented, the 27 Myr periodicity appears in origination, suggesting that the artifact may ultimately be based on a signal in the data. A 62 Myr feature appears in extinction, when this same procedure is used. We conclude that evidence for a periodicity at 62 Myr is robust, and evidence for periodicity at approximately 27 Myr is also present, albeit more ambiguous.Comment: Minor modifications to reflect final published versio

Age-related delay in information accrual for faces: Evidence from a parametric, single-trial EEG approach

Background: In this study, we quantified age-related changes in the time-course of face processing by means of an innovative single-trial ERP approach. Unlike analyses used in previous studies, our approach does not rely on peak measurements and can provide a more sensitive measure of processing delays. Young and old adults (mean ages 22 and 70 years) performed a non-speeded discrimination task between two faces. The phase spectrum of these faces was manipulated parametrically to create pictures that ranged between pure noise (0% phase information) and the undistorted signal (100% phase information), with five intermediate steps. Results: Behavioural 75% correct thresholds were on average lower, and maximum accuracy was higher, in younger than older observers. ERPs from each subject were entered into a single-trial general linear regression model to identify variations in neural activity statistically associated with changes in image structure. The earliest age-related ERP differences occurred in the time window of the N170. Older observers had a significantly stronger N170 in response to noise, but this age difference decreased with increasing phase information. Overall, manipulating image phase information had a greater effect on ERPs from younger observers, which was quantified using a hierarchical modelling approach. Importantly, visual activity was modulated by the same stimulus parameters in younger and older subjects. The fit of the model, indexed by R2, was computed at multiple post-stimulus time points. The time-course of the R2 function showed a significantly slower processing in older observers starting around 120 ms after stimulus onset. This age-related delay increased over time to reach a maximum around 190 ms, at which latency younger observers had around 50 ms time lead over older observers. Conclusion: Using a component-free ERP analysis that provides a precise timing of the visual system sensitivity to image structure, the current study demonstrates that older observers accumulate face information more slowly than younger subjects. Additionally, the N170 appears to be less face-sensitive in older observers

Study protocol to investigate the effect of a lifestyle intervention on body weight, psychological health status and risk factors associated with disease recurrence in women recovering from breast cancer treatment

Background Breast cancer survivors often encounter physiological and psychological problems related to their diagnosis and treatment that can influence long-term prognosis. The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of a lifestyle intervention on body weight and psychological well-being in women recovering from breast cancer treatment, and to determine the relationship between changes in these variables and biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Methods/design Following ethical approval, a total of 100 patients will be randomly assigned to a lifestyle intervention (incorporating dietary energy restriction in conjunction with aerobic exercise training) or normal care control group. Patients randomised to the dietary and exercise intervention will be given individualised healthy eating dietary advice and written information and attend moderate intensity aerobic exercise sessions on three to five days per week for a period of 24 weeks. The aim of this strategy is to induce a steady weight loss of up to 0.5 Kg each week. In addition, the overall quality of the diet will be examined with a view to (i) reducing the dietary intake of fat to ~25% of the total calories, (ii) eating at least 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day, (iii) increasing the intake of fibre and reducing refined carbohydrates, and (iv) taking moderate amounts of alcohol. Outcome measures will include body weight and body composition, psychological health status (stress and depression), cardiorespiratory fitness and quality of life. In addition, biomarkers associated with disease recurrence, including stress hormones, estrogen status, inflammatory markers and indices of innate and adaptive immune function will be monitored. Discussion This research will provide valuable information on the effectiveness of a practical, easily implemented lifestyle intervention for evoking positive effects on body weight and psychological well-being, two important factors that can influence long-term prognosis in breast cancer survivors. However, the added value of the study is that it will also evaluate the effects of the lifestyle intervention on a range of biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Considered together, the results should improve our understanding of the potential role that lifestyle-modifiable factors could play in saving or prolonging lives