Abdominal Wound Dehiscence in Adults: Development and Validation of a Risk Model

Background: Several studies have been performed to identify risk factors for abdominal wound dehiscence. No risk model had yet been developed for the general surgical population. The objective of the present study was to identify independent risk factors for abdominal wound dehiscence and to develop a risk model to recognize high-risk patients. Identification of high-risk patients offers opportunities for intervention strategies. Methods: Medical registers from January 1985 to December 2005 were searched. Patients who had primarily undergone appendectomies or nonsurgical (e.g., urological) operations were excluded. Each patient with abdominal wound dehiscence was matched with three controls by systematic random sampling. Putative relevant patient-related, operation-related, and postoperative variables were evaluated in univariate analysis and subsequently entered in multivariate stepwise logistic regression models to delineate major independent predictors of abdominal wound dehiscence. A risk model was developed, which was validated in a population of patients who had undergone operation between January and December 2006. Results: A total of 363 cases and 1,089 controls were analyzed. Major independent risk factors were age, gender, chronic pulmonary disease, ascites, jaundice, anemia, emergency surgery, type of surgery, postoperative coughing, and wound infection. In the validation population, risk scores were significantly higher (P < 0.001) for patients with abdominal wound dehiscence (n = 19) compared to those without (n = 677). Resulting scores ranged from 0 to 8.5, and the risk for abdominal wound dehiscence over this range increased exponentially from 0.02% to 70.1%. Conclusions: The validated risk model shows high predictive value for abdominal wound dehiscence and may help to identify patients at increased risk

Emergency presentation of cancer and short-term mortality

Background:The short-term survival following a cancer diagnosis in England is lower than that in comparable countries, with the difference in excess mortality primarily occurring in the months immediately after diagnosis. We assess the impact of emergency presentation (EP) on the excess mortality in England over the course of the year following diagnosis. Methods:All colorectal and cervical cancers presenting in England and all breast, lung, and prostate cancers in the East of England in 2006-2008 are included. The variation in the likelihood of EP with age, stage, sex, co-morbidity, and income deprivation is modelled. The excess mortality over 0-1, 1-3, 3-6, and 6-12 months after diagnosis and its dependence on these case-mix factors and presentation route is then examined. Results:More advanced stage and older age are predictive of EP, as to a lesser extent are co-morbidity, higher income deprivation, and female sex. In the first month after diagnosis, we observe case-mix-adjusted excess mortality rate ratios of 7.5 (cervical), 5.9 (colorectal), 11.7 (breast ), 4.0 (lung), and 20.8 (prostate) for EP compared with non-EP. Conclusion:Individuals who present as an emergency experience high short-term mortality in all cancer types examined compared with non-EPs. This is partly a case-mix effect but EP remains predictive of short-term mortality even when age, stage, and co-morbidity are accounted for

Survival-Related Profile, Pathways, and Transcription Factors in Ovarian Cancer

Ate van der Zee and colleagues analyze the gene expression profiles of ovarian cancer samples from 157 patients, and identify an 86-gene expression profile that seems to predict overall survival