The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault

We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake in which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold. The duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The simplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of its seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes with magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the next large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.Comment: Final version of the published paper, with an erratum and an unpublished appendix with some proof

Late-Holocene climate dynamics recorded in the peat bogs of Tierra del Fuego, South America

The ombrotrophic peat bogs of Tierra del Fuego are located within the southern westerly wind belt (SWWB), which dominates climate variability in this region. We have reconstructed late-Holocene water-table depths from three peat bogs and aimed to relate these records to shifts in regional climate. Water-table depths were quantified by the analysis of testate amoeba assemblages, and a regional transfer function was used to infer past water-table depths. During the last 2000 years, testate amoeba assemblages have been relatively stable, with a dominance of Difflugia pulex and Difflugia pristis type, and an increase in Assulina muscorum and other Euglyphida at the top of each section. Multivariate analyses show that water-table depth remained the main environmental variable explaining assemblages along the TiA12 core, but reconstructions were not significant for the two other cores. In line with the low variability in assemblages, water tables were relatively stable during the last 2000 years. Slightly wetter conditions were found between ~1400 and 900 cal. BP and a pronounced recent dry shift was reconstructed in all of the three peat profiles. Considering the regional climatic context, this recent shift may have been forced by a decrease in precipitation and warmer conditions linked to an increase in the importance of the SWWB. Nevertheless, we cannot exclude the influence of higher UV-B radiation resulting from the local degradation of the ozone layer since the late 1970s, which may have had an additional effect on the relative presence of A. muscorum in the southern Patagonian region

An alternative approach to transfer functions? Testing the performance of a functional trait-based model for testate amoebae

publisher: Elsevier articletitle: An alternative approach to transfer functions? Testing the performance of a functional trait-based model for testate amoebae journaltitle: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.12.005 content_type: article copyright: © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V

The Relationship between Telomere Length and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)

Some have suggested that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a disease of accelerated aging. Aging is characterized by shortening of telomeres. The relationship of telomere length to important clinical outcomes such as mortality, disease progression and cancer in COPD is unknown. Using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), we measured telomere length of peripheral leukocytes in 4,271 subjects with mild to moderate COPD who participated in the Lung Health Study (LHS). The subjects were followed for approximately 7.5 years during which time their vital status, FEV1 and smoking status were ascertained. Using multiple regression methods, we determined the relationship of telomere length to cancer and total mortality in these subjects. We also measured telomere length in healthy “mid-life” volunteers and patients with more severe COPD. The LHS subjects had significantly shorter telomeres than those of healthy “mid-life” volunteers (p<.001). Compared to individuals in the 4th quartile of relative telomere length (i.e. longest telomere group), the remaining participants had significantly higher risk of cancer mortality (Hazard ratio, HR, 1.48; p = 0.0324) and total mortality (HR, 1.29; p = 0.0425). Smoking status did not make a significant difference in peripheral blood cells telomere length. In conclusion, COPD patients have short leukocyte telomeres, which are in turn associated increased risk of total and cancer mortality. Accelerated aging is of particular relevance to cancer mortality in COPD

Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises

High-throughput automated scoring of Ki67 in breast cancer tissue microarrays from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC)

Automated methods are needed to facilitate high-throughput and reproducible scoring of Ki67 and other markers in breast cancer tissue microarrays (TMAs) in large-scale studies. To address this need, we developed an automated protocol for Ki67 scoring and evaluated its performanc

Cervico-vaginal immunoglobulin g levels increase post-ovulation independently of neutrophils

The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is often higher in females than in males. Although the reproductive cycle profoundly modulates local immunity in the female reproductive tract (FRT) system, significant gaps in our knowledge of the immunobiology of the FRT still exist. An intriguing and frequently observed characteristic of the FRT is the predominant presence of immunoglobulin (Ig) G in cervico-vaginal secretions. We show here that in the mouse, IgG accumulation was enhanced approximately 5-fold post-ovulation, and was accompanied by an influx of neutrophils into the FRT. To determine whether these two events were causally related, we performed short-term neutrophil depletion experiments at individual stages throughout the estrous cycle. Our results demonstrate that neutrophils were not necessary for cycle-dependent tissue remodeling and cycle progression and that cycle-dependent IgG accumulation occurred independent of neutrophils. We thus conclude that neutrophil influx and IgG accumulation are independent events that occur in the FRT during the reproductive cycle

Using a Modified Intervention Mapping Approach to Develop and Refine a Single-Session Motivational Intervention for Methamphetamine-Using Men Who Have Sex With Men

There is an ongoing need for the development and adaptation of behavioral interventions to address behaviors related to acquisition and transmission of infectious diseases and for preventing the onset of chronic diseases. This paper describes the application of an established systematic approach to the development of a behavioral intervention to reduce sexual risk behaviors for HIV among men who have sex with men and who use methamphetamine. The approach includes six steps: (1) a needs assessment; (2) preparing matrices of proximal program objectives; (3) selecting theory-based methods and practical strategies; (4) producing program components and materials; (5) planning for program adoption, implementation, and sustainability; and (6) planning for evaluation. The focus of this article is on the intervention development process; therefore the article does not describe steps 5 and 6. Overall the process worked well, although it had to be adapted to fit the sequence of events associated with a funded research project. This project demonstrates that systematic approaches to intervention development can be applied even in research projects where some of the steps occur during the proposal writing process rather than during the actual project. However, intervention developers must remain flexible and be prepared to adapt the process to the situation. This includes being ready to make choices regarding intervention efficacy versus feasibility and being willing to select the best intervention that is likely to be delivered with available resources rather than an ideal intervention that may not be practical

Performance of automated scoring of ER, PR, HER2, CK5/6 and EGFR in breast cancer tissue microarrays in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium

Breast cancer risk factors and clinical outcomes vary by tumour marker expression. However, individual studies often lack the power required to assess these relationships, and large-scale analyses are limited by the need for high throughput, standardized scoring methods. To address these limitations, we assessed whether automated image analysis of immunohistochemically stained tissue microarrays can permit rapid, standardized scoring of tumour markers from multiple studies. Tissue microarray sections prepared in nine studies containing 20 263 cores from 8267 breast cancers stained for two nuclear (oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor), two membranous (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 and epidermal growth factor receptor) and one cytoplasmic (cytokeratin 5/6) marker were scanned as digital images. Automated algorithms were used to score markers in tumour cells using the Ariol system. We compared automated scores against visual reads, and their associations with breast cancer survival. Approximately 65–70% of tissue microarray cores were satisfactory for scoring. Among satisfactory cores, agreement between dichotomous automated and visual scores was highest for oestrogen receptor (Kappa = 0.76), followed by human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (Kappa = 0.69) and progesterone receptor (Kappa = 0.67). Automated quantitative scores for these markers were associated with hazard ratios for breast cancer mortality in a dose-response manner. Considering visual scores of epidermal growth factor receptor or cytokeratin 5/6 as the reference, automated scoring achieved excellent negative predictive value (96–98%), but yielded many false positives (positive predictive value = 30–32%). For all markers, we observed substantial heterogeneity in automated scoring performance across tissue microarrays. Automated analysis is a potentially useful tool for large-scale, quantitative scoring of immunohistochemically stained tissue microarrays available in consortia. However, continued optimization, rigorous marker-specific quality control measures and standardization of tissue microarray designs, staining and scoring protocols is needed to enhance results.Peer reviewe

Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Activation in Glioblastoma through Novel Missense Mutations in the Extracellular Domain

BACKGROUND: Protein tyrosine kinases are important regulators of cellular homeostasis with tightly controlled catalytic activity. Mutations in kinase-encoding genes can relieve the autoinhibitory constraints on kinase activity, can promote malignant transformation, and appear to be a major determinant of response to kinase inhibitor therapy. Missense mutations in the EGFR kinase domain, for example, have recently been identified in patients who showed clinical responses to EGFR kinase inhibitor therapy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Encouraged by the promising clinical activity of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) kinase inhibitors in treating glioblastoma in humans, we have sequenced the complete EGFR coding sequence in glioma tumor samples and cell lines. We identified novel missense mutations in the extracellular domain of EGFR in 13.6% (18/132) of glioblastomas and 12.5% (1/8) of glioblastoma cell lines. These EGFR mutations were associated with increased EGFR gene dosage and conferred anchorage-independent growth and tumorigenicity to NIH-3T3 cells. Cells transformed by expression of these EGFR mutants were sensitive to small-molecule EGFR kinase inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest extracellular missense mutations as a novel mechanism for oncogenic EGFR activation and may help identify patients who can benefit from EGFR kinase inhibitors for treatment of glioblastoma