Optimal parameters for the ocean's nutrient, carbon, and oxygen cycles compensate for circulation biases but replumb the biological pump

Accurate predictive modelling of the ocean's global carbon and oxygen cycles is challenging because of uncertainties in both biogeochemistry and ocean circulation. Advances over the last decade have made parameter optimization feasible, allowing models to better match observed biogeochemical fields. However, does fitting a biogeochemical model to observed tracers using a circulation with known biases robustly capture the inner workings of the biological pump? Here we embed a mechanistic model of the ocean's coupled nutrient, carbon, and oxygen cycles into two circulations for the current climate. To assess the effects of biases, one circulation (ACCESS-M) is derived from a climate model and the other from data assimilation of observations (OCIM2). We find that parameter optimization compensates for circulation biases at the expense of altering how the biological pump operates. Tracer observations constrain pump strength and regenerated inventories for both circulations, but ACCESS-M export production optimizes to twice that of OCIM2 to compensate for ACCESS-M having lower sequestration efficiencies driven by less efficient particle transfer and shorter residence times. Idealized simulations forcing complete Southern Ocean nutrient utilization show that the response of the optimized system is sensitive to the embedding circulation. In ACCESS-M, Southern Ocean nutrient and DIC trapping is partially short-circuited by unrealistically deep mixed layers. For both circulations, intense Southern Ocean production deoxygenates Southern-Ocean-sourced deep waters, muting the imprint of circulation biases on oxygen. Our findings highlight that the biological pump's plumbing needs careful assessment to predict the biogeochemical response to environmental changes, even when optimally matching observations.</p

GNOM v1.0: an optimized steady-state model of the modern marine neodymium cycle

Spatially distant sources of neodymium (Nd) to the ocean that carry different isotopic signatures (εNd) have been shown to trace out major water masses and have thus been extensively used to study large-scale features of the ocean circulation both past and current. While the global marine Nd cycle is qualitatively well understood, a complete quantitative determination of all its components and mechanisms, such as the magnitude of its sources and the paradoxical conservative behavior of εNd, remains elusive. To make sense of the increasing collection of observational Nd and εNd data, in this model description paper we present and describe the Global Neodymium Ocean Model (GNOM) v1.0, the first inverse model of the global marine biogeochemical cycle of Nd. The GNOM is embedded in a data-constrained steady-state circulation that affords spectacular computational efficiency, which we leverage to perform systematic objective optimization, allowing us to make preliminary estimates of biogeochemical parameters. Owing to its matrix representation, the GNOM model is additionally amenable to novel diagnostics that allow us to investigate open questions about the Nd cycle with unprecedented accuracy. This model is open-source and freely accessible, is written in Julia, and its code is easily understandable and modifiable for further community developments, refinements, and experiments.</p

Evaluating the benefits of bayesian hierarchical methods for analyzing heterogeneous environmental datasets: a case study of marine organic carbon fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P &lt; 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome associated with COVID-19: An Emulated Target Trial Analysis.

RATIONALE: Whether COVID patients may benefit from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) compared with conventional invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of ECMO on 90-Day mortality vs IMV only Methods: Among 4,244 critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 included in a multicenter cohort study, we emulated a target trial comparing the treatment strategies of initiating ECMO vs. no ECMO within 7 days of IMV in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (PaO2/FiO2 <80 or PaCO2 ≥60 mmHg). We controlled for confounding using a multivariable Cox model based on predefined variables. MAIN RESULTS: 1,235 patients met the full eligibility criteria for the emulated trial, among whom 164 patients initiated ECMO. The ECMO strategy had a higher survival probability at Day-7 from the onset of eligibility criteria (87% vs 83%, risk difference: 4%, 95% CI 0;9%) which decreased during follow-up (survival at Day-90: 63% vs 65%, risk difference: -2%, 95% CI -10;5%). However, ECMO was associated with higher survival when performed in high-volume ECMO centers or in regions where a specific ECMO network organization was set up to handle high demand, and when initiated within the first 4 days of MV and in profoundly hypoxemic patients. CONCLUSIONS: In an emulated trial based on a nationwide COVID-19 cohort, we found differential survival over time of an ECMO compared with a no-ECMO strategy. However, ECMO was consistently associated with better outcomes when performed in high-volume centers and in regions with ECMO capacities specifically organized to handle high demand. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

The age of iron and iron source attribution in the ocean

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005418All iron data used in this study are available from GEOTRACES (http://www.bodc.ac.uk/geotraces/data)We use tracers to partition dissolved iron (dFe) into the contributions from each source within a numerical model of the iron cycle without perturbing the system. These contributions are further partitioned according to the time since injection into the ocean, which defines their iron-age spectrum and mean iron age. The utility of these diagnostics is illustrated for a family of inverse model estimates of the iron cycle, constrained by a data-assimilated circulation and available dFe measurements. The source contributions are compared with source anomalies defined as the differences between solutions with and without the source in question. We find that in the Southern Ocean euphotic zone, the hydrothermal and sediment contributions range from 15% to 30% of the total each, which the anomalies underestimate by a factorof∼2becauseofthenonlinearityofscavenging.Theironageisonlyresetbyscavengingandattains a mean of several hundred years in the Southern Ocean euphotic zone, revealing that aeolian iron there is supplied primarily from depth as regenerated dFe. Tagging iron according to source region and pathways shows that 70–80% of the aeolian dFe in the euphotic zone near Antarctica is supplied from north of 46∘S via paths that reach below 1 km depth. Hydrothermal iron has the oldest surface mean ages on the order of middepth ventilation times. A measure of uncertainty is provided by the systematic variations of our diagnostics across the family of iron cycle estimates, each member of which has a different aeolian sourcestrength.Australian Research CouncilGovernment of MonacoScientific Centre of MonacoFrères Louis et Max Principale FoundationCuomo FoundationAustralian Research Council grant DP12010067