Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios

Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April–September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1 °C and 5 °C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1 °C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5 °C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate.</p

Estimation of PM10-bound As, Cd, Ni and Pb levels by means of statistical modelling: PLSR and ANN approaches

Air quality assessment regarding metals and metalloids using experimental measurements is expensive and time consuming due to the cost and time required for the analytical determination of the levels of these pollutants. According to the European Union (EU) Air Quality Framework Directive (Directive 2008/50/EC), other alternatives, such as objective estimation techniques, can be considered for ambient air quality assessment in zones and agglomerations where the level of pollutants is below a certain concentration value known as the lower assessment threshold. These conditions occur in urban areas in Cantabria (northern Spain). This work aims to estimate the levels of As, Cd, Ni and Pb in airborne PM10 at two urban sites in the Cantabria region (Castro Urdiales and Reinosa) using statistical models as objective estimation techniques. These models were developed based on three different approaches: partial least squares regression (PLSR), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and an alternative approach consisting of principal component analysis (PCA) coupled with ANNs (PCA-ANN). Additionally, these models were externally validated using previously unseen data. The results show that the models developed in this work based on PLSR and ANNs fulfil the EU uncertainty requirements for objective estimation techniques and provide an acceptable estimation of the mean values. As a consequence, they could be considered as an alternative to experimental measurements for air quality assessment regarding the aforementioned pollutants in the study areas while saving time and resources.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the Project CMT2010-16068. The authors also thank the Regional Environment Ministry of the Cantabria Government for providing the PM10 samples at the Castro Urdiales and Reinosa sites

The effects of follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR) -29 and Ser680Asn polymorphisms in IVF/ICSI

The aim of this study was to analyze two different polymorphisms, Ser680Asn and -29 (G&gt;A) promoter polymorphism, of the follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR) gene, individually but also in combination, in a sample of Greek women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). One hundred and forty-one women undergoing IVF or ICSI and 94 controls were genotyped by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for the two FSHR polymorphisms. The association of the alleles with the clinical, biochemical and other parameters concerning the controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) protocol and outcome was investigated, as well as the pregnancy rate. The study of each polymorphism individually revealed a positive correlation of the SerSer genotype (Ser680Asn polymorphism) with higher luteinizing hormone (LH) levels on the third day of the menstrual cycle. On the other hand, the A allele for the -29 (G&gt;A) promoter polymorphism correlated with the increased number and quality of cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs). No differences were detected when the different genotypes of the two polymorphisms were combined - the population study was grouped according to the number of polymorphic alleles they carried (0-4 alleles). Women who presented all polymorphic alleles, AsnAsn/AA, exhibited the lowest LH levels (2.62 ± 0.68 mIU/L), but were rarely detected (n = 2, 1.4% of the studied population). The data from this study reflect that the investigation of the combination of polymorphisms, such as FSHR -29 and Ser680Asn, could offer a valuable tool in order to evaluate and anticipate the outcome of the ovulation induction protocols, especially in the group of patients with failed attempts. © 2020 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Health impact assessment for mortality associated with high temperatures in Cyprus

Climate change is associated with extreme temperatures that can have severe effects on public health, in the form of heat-related mortality. In the present paper we perform a health impact assessment for mortality associated with extreme weather in Cyprus, during the months of April-September for the 6-year period between 2004-2009. Additionally, we estimate the potential health effects of higher summer temperatures, in line with climate change projections. The health impact assessment indicates a significant number of heat-related deaths, as well as a rapid increase in mortality for given temperature rise. Specifically, for an increase of 1°C over the baseline temperatures, heat-related mortality doubles, while for a 5 °C increase, mortality is almost 800% the baseline. It is estimated that these results can provide the necessary basis for linking accurate forecasts of extreme events with effective public health measures and interventions.</p

Enhancing corrosion resistance, hardness, and crack resistance in magnetron sputtered high entropy CoCrFeMnNi coatings by adding carbon

This study explores carbon addition as a materials design approach for simultaneously improving the hardness, crack resistance, and corrosion resistance of high entropy thin films. CoCrFeMnNi was selected as a starting point, due to its high concentration of weak carbide formers. The suppression of carbides is crucial to the approach, as carbide formation can decrease both ductility and corrosion resistance. Films with 0, 6, and 11 at.% C were deposited by magnetron co-sputtering, using a graphite target and a sintered compound target. The samples with 0 at.% C crystallized with a mixture of a cubic closed packed (ccp) phase and the intermetallic χ-phase. With 6 and 11 at.% C, the films were amorphous and homogenous down to the nm-scale. The hardness of the films increased from 8 GPa in the carbon-free film to 16 GPa in the film with 11 at.% C. Furthermore, the carbon significantly improved the crack resistance as shown in fragmentation tests, where the crack density was strongly reduced. The changes in mechanical properties were primarily attributed to the shift from crystalline to amorphous. Lastly, the carbon improved the corrosion resistance by a progressive lowering of the corrosion current and the passive current with increasing carbon concentration

Cooling degree models and future energy demand in the residential sector. A seven-country case study

The intensity and duration of hot weather and the number of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, are increasing, leading to a growing need for space cooling energy demand. Together with the building stock's low energy performance, this phenomenon may also increase households' energy consumption. On the other hand, the low level of ownership of cooling equip-ment can cause low energy consumption, leading to a lack of indoor thermal comfort and several health-related problems, yet increasing the risk of energy poverty in summer. Understanding future temperature variations and the associated impacts on building cooling demand will allow mitigat-ing future issues related to a warmer climate. In this respect, this paper analyses the effects of change in temperatures in the residential sector cooling demand in 2050 for a case study of nineteen cities across seven countries: Cyprus, Finland, Greece, Israel, Portugal, Slovakia, and Spain, by estimating cooling degree days and hours (CDD and CDH). CDD and CDH are calculated using both fixed and adaptive thermal comfort temperature thresholds for 2020 and 2050, understanding their strengths and weaknesses to assess the effects of warmer temperatures. Results suggest a noticeable average increase in CDD and CDH values, up to double, by using both thresholds for 2050, with a particular interest in northern countries where structural modifications in the building stock and occupants' behavior should be anticipated. Furthermore, the use of the adaptive thermal comfort threshold shows that the projected temperature increases for 2050 might affect people's capability to adapt their comfort band (i.e., indoor habitability) as temperatures would be higher than the maximum admissible values for people's comfort and health. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Human mortality in Cyprus:the role of temperature and particulate air pollution

Climatic change results in increased occurrence of heat waves, and the thermal stress caused by such phenomena is leading to higher levels of heat-related mortality worldwide. This study is the first to examine the effect of extreme weather on mortality in Cyprus. It investigates the individual effect of meteorological indicators on mortality, as well as the role of particulate air pollution (PM10). A generalized linear model (GLM) with quasi-Poisson regression was implemented. GLM included a temperature function and was adjusted for relative humidity and seasonality. The temperature function was developed under a newly developed framework of distributed lag nonlinear models, which capture nonlinearities and delayed effects of heat simultaneously. GLM was extended to examine the confounding effect of air pollution. All the results on heat effects are presented. High temperatures had a significant effect on mortality with increased mortality rates, independent of humidity and seasonality. Mortality risk increased steeply above a temperature threshold. A direct heat effect was shown, with higher risk on the current and next day of a severe heat event. PM10 was not found to have a confounding effect on the temperature–mortality relationship, since the strength of this relationship remained after the inclusion of PM10 in the model. Differences existed between urban and coastal areas.</p