Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union

Purpose: We are interested in what policy insights can be transferred from EU countries that have been most successful in introducing EVs to those that are debating policy options. As we use a model to explore this, we are also interested in the application of modelling, seeking to understand if real world policies and results can be replicated in a model and, more generally, the challenges to the use of modelling in policy appraisal. Methods: We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We perform iterative scenario tests to replicate the policies carried out in the Netherlands and the UK in recent years in an attempt to achieve similar results in EV sales. We then transfer the policy scenarios to other EU member states and assess the transferability of the policies. Results: Reasonable approximations of the Netherlands and UK EV policies and sales were achieved and implemented in other EU member states. Conclusion: We find that the PTTMAM is fit-for-purpose and can replicate successful policies to a certain degree. Policy success is sensitive to country specific conditions, and a system dynamics model like the PTTMAM can help identify which conditions react to which policy stimulus. There are challenges to modelling in policy appraisal, such as the subjectivity of the modeller and flexibility to specific conditions, which must be kept transparent for the model to be a relevant tool for policy making

Protective effect of leptin against ischemia-reperfusion injury in the rat small intestine

BACKGROUND: The small intestine is extremely sensitive to ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) injury and a range of microcirculatory disturbances which contribute to tissue damage. Previous studies have shown that leptin plays an important physiological role in the microvasculature. The aim of this study was to evaluate the protective effects of leptin in I/R – induced mucosal injury in the small intestine. METHODS: Forty rats were divided into 5 groups (n = 8). Group I was subjected to a sham operation. Following mesenteric ischemia in group II (control); physiologic saline 1 cm(3), in group III; leptin 100 μg/kg, and physiologic saline 1 cm(3), in group IV; N(G)-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME) 20 mg/kg, and physiologic saline 1 cm(3), in group V; leptin 100 μg/kg, L-NAME 20 mg/kg, and physiologic saline 1 cm(3 )were given intra-peritoneally. In these groups, an I/R procedure was performed by occlusion of the superior mesenteric artery for 45 min followed by 120 min reperfusion. After reperfusion, the small intestines were resected for malondialdehyde (MDA) and nitric oxide (NO) concentration and histopathologic properties. Mucosal lesions were scored between 0 and 5. Tissue MDA and NO concentration and histopathologic grades were compared statistically. RESULTS: Tissue MDA level significantly increased (P < 0.05), tissue NO level significantly decreased in group V animals, compared to group III animals respectively (P < 0.001). Histopathologically, intestinal injury significantly decreased in the leptin treated ischemic group. CONCLUSION: Leptin can be used safely in mesenteric occlusive diseases, since it induces NO formation and release in mesenteric vessels

Uso de iodóforo tópico em feridas crônicas: revisão da literatura

La investigación trata de una revisión de la literatura a cerca de la utilización del yodo tópico y/o compuestos en el tratamiento de las heridas crónicas. Se buscaran los ensayos clínicos en el Cochrane. Catorce (n=24) publicaciones estaban de acuerdo con los criterios de inclusión, y fueran analizadas según las características de las revistas y ensayos y clasificadas como: yodo versus otros agentes tópicos (7/ 50%); yodo versus curativos (6/ 42,9%) y yodo versus sin yodo (1/ 7,1%). Fueran obtenidos resultados favorables a la utilización del yodo y/o compuestos en 50% de los artículos analizados. Cuanto a las tendencias de los resultados, 6 de 8 publicaciones, a cerca de la de cicatrización de las heridas y prevención de infección, fueran favorables; 4 de 5 fueran no favorables solamente para la cicatrización, y el resultado del único trabajo con indicación del uso para tratamiento de infección de herida fue no favorable.Trata-se de revisão de literatura relacionada ao uso de iodóforos tópicos no tratamento de feridas crônicas. Os ensaios clínicos foram localizados por meio da Base de Dados Cochrane de Revisões Sistemáticas e Registro Cochrane Central de Ensayos Controlados. Quatorze (58,3%), dentre 24 artigos, atenderam os critérios de inclusão, analisados quanto às características dos periódicos e dos estudos e classificados em três grupos: iodóforo versus outros agentes tópicos (7 ou 50%); iodóforo versus coberturas (6 ou 42,9%) e iodóforo versus sem iodóforo (1 ou 7,1%). Resultados favoráveis à utilização dos iodóforos ocorreram em 50% dos artigos analisados. Quanto às tendências dos resultados, seis, dentre oito artigos, que tratavam de cicatrização de feridas e prevenção de infecção, foram favoráveis; quatro, dentre cinco, foram desfavoráveis somente para a cicatrização e no único ensaio em que houve indicação do seu uso para tratamento de infecção de ferida o resultado foi desfavorável.This study aimed to do a review of the literature regarding the use of topic iodine and/or compounds in the treatment of chronic wounds. The clinical trials were searched in the Cochrane database. Fourteen (58.3%) among 24 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The articles were analyzed regarding journal and study characteristics and classified into three groups: Iodine versus other topic agents (7/ 50%); Iodine versus different dressings (6/ 42.9%); Iodine versus without Iodine (1/ 7.1%). Favorable results for the use of Iodine or similar product occurred in 50% of the analyzed studies. Six out of 8 trials showed favorable results for healing and infection prevention/ treatment; 4 out of 5 were not favorable when the healing objective was investigated and 1 study for infection treatment showed no favorable result

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Using the decentralized and liberalized electricity market microworld (LEMM) as an educational tool

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