A family history of breast cancer will not predict female early onset breast cancer in a population-based setting

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: An increased risk of breast cancer for relatives of breast cancer patients has been demonstrated in many studies, and having a relative diagnosed with breast cancer at an early age is an indication for breast cancer screening. This indication has been derived from estimates based on data from cancer-prone families or from BRCA1/2 mutation families, and might be biased because BRCA1/2 mutations explain only a small proportion of the familial clustering of breast cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the predictive value of a family history of cancer with regard to early onset of female breast cancer in a population based setting. METHODS: An unselected sample of 1,987 women with and without breast cancer was studied with regard to the age of diagnosis of breast cancer. RESULTS: The risk of early-onset breast cancer was increased when there were: (1) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first-degree relatives (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.09; 95% CI: 128-7.44), (2) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first or second-degree relatives under the age of 50 (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.36; 95% CI: 1.12-10.08), (3) at least 1 case of female breast cancer under the age of 40 in a first- or second-degree relative (yes/no; HR at age 30: 2.06; 95% CI: 0.83-5.12) and (4) any case of bilateral breast cancer (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.47; 95%: 1.33-9.05). The positive predictive value of having 2 or more of these characteristics was 13% for breast cancer before the age of 70, 11% for breast cancer before the age of 50, and 1% for breast cancer before the age of 30. CONCLUSION: Applying family history related criteria in an unselected population could result in the screening of many women who will not develop breast cancer at an early age

A comprehensive model for familial breast cancer incorporating BRCA1, BRCA2 and other genes

In computing the probability that a woman is a BRCA1 or BRCA2 carrier for genetic counselling purposes, it is important to allow for the fact that other breast cancer susceptibility genes may exist. We used data from both a population based series of breast cancer cases and high risk families in the UK, with information on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation status, to investigate the genetic models that can best explain familial breast cancer outside BRCA1 and BRCA2 families. We also evaluated the evidence for risk modifiers in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. We estimated the simultaneous effects of BRCA1, BRCA2, a third hypothetical gene ‘BRCA3’, and a polygenic effect using segregation analysis. The hypergeometric polygenic model was used to approximate polygenic inheritance and the effect of risk modifiers. BRCA1 and BRCA2 could not explain all the observed familial clustering. The best fitting model for the residual familial breast cancer was the polygenic, although a model with a single recessive allele produced a similar fit. There was also significant evidence for a modifying effect of other genes on the risks of breast cancer in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Under this model, the frequency of BRCA1 was estimated to be 0.051% (95% CI: 0.021–0.125%) and of BRCA2 0.068% (95% CI: 0.033–0.141%). The breast cancer risk by age 70 years, based on the average incidence over all modifiers was estimated to be 35.3% for BRCA1 and 50.3% for BRCA2. The corresponding ovarian cancer risks were 25.9% for BRCA1 and 9.1% for BRCA2. The findings suggest that several common, low penetrance genes with multiplicative effects on risk may account for the residual non-BRCA1/2 familial aggregation of breast cancer. The modifying effect may explain the previously reported differences between population based estimates for BRCA1/2 penetrance and estimates based on high-risk families

Optimal selection for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation testing using a combination of ' easy to apply ' probability models

To establish an efficient, reliable and easy to apply risk assessment tool to select families with breast and/or ovarian cancer patients for BRCA mutation testing, using available probability models. In a retrospective study of 263 families with breast and/or ovarian cancer patients, the utility of the Frank (Myriad), Gilpin (family history assessment tool) and Evans (Manchester) model was analysed, to select 49 BRCA mutation-positive families. For various cutoff levels and combinations, the sensitivity and specificity were calculated and compared. The best combinations were subsequently validated in additional sets of families. Comparable sensitivity and specificity were obtained with the Gilpin and Evans models. They appeared to be complementary to the Frank model. To obtain an optimal sensitivity, five ‘additional criteria' were introduced that are specific for the selection of small or uninformative families. The optimal selection is made by the combination ‘Frank ⩾16% or Evans2 ⩾12 or one of five additional criteria'. The efficiency of the selection of families for mutation testing of BRCA1 and BRCA2 can be optimised by using a combination of available easy to apply risk assessment models

Crack kinking at the tip of a mode I crack in an orthotropic solid

The competition between crack penetration and crack kinking is addressed for a mode I macroscopic crack in an orthotropic elastic solid. Cohesive zones of finite peak strength and finite toughness are placed directly ahead of and orthogonal to the plane of the parent crack. The cohesive zone ahead of the crack tip is tensile in nature and leads to crack penetration, whereas the inclined zones slide without opening under a combined shear and normal traction, and give crack kinking. Thereby, the competition between continued crack growth by penetration ahead of the crack tip versus kinking is determined as a function of the relative strength and relative toughness of the cohesive zones. This competition is plotted in the form of a failure mechanism map, with the role of material orthotropy emphasized. Synergistic toughening is observed, whereby the parent crack tip is shielded by the activation of both the tensile and shear (kinking) cohesive zones, and the macroscopic toughness is elevated. The study is used to assess the degree to which various classes of composite have the tendency to undergo kinking

Log odds of carrying an Ancestral Mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2 for a Defined personal and family history in an Ashkenazi Jewish woman (LAMBDA)

INTRODUCTION: Ancestral mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 are common in people of Ashkenazi Jewish descent and are associated with a substantially increased risk of breast and ovarian cancer. Women considering mutation testing usually have several personal and family cancer characteristics, so predicting mutation status from one factor alone could be misleading. The aim of this study was to develop a simple algorithm to estimate the probability that an Ashkenazi Jewish woman carries an ancestral mutation, based on multiple predictive factors. METHODS: We studied Ashkenazi Jewish women with a personal or family history of breast or ovarian cancer and living in Melbourne or Sydney, Australia, or with a previous diagnosis of breast or ovarian cancer and living in the UK. DNA samples were tested for the germline mutations 185delAG and 5382insC in BRCA1, and 6174delT in BRCA2. Logistic regression was used to identify, and to estimate the predictive strength of, major determinants. RESULTS: A mutation was detected in 64 of 424 women. An algorithm was developed by combining our findings with those from similar analyses of a large study of unaffected Jewish women in Washington. Starting with a baseline score, a multiple of 0.5 (based on the logistic regression estimates) is added for each predictive feature. The sum is the estimated log odds ratio that a woman is a carrier, and is converted to a probability by using a table. There was good internal consistency. CONCLUSIONS: This simple algorithm might be useful in the clinical and genetic counselling setting. Comparison and validation in other settings should be sought

Evaluation of models to predict BRCA germline mutations

The selection of candidates for BRCA germline mutation testing is an important clinical issue yet it remains a significant challenge. A number of risk prediction models have been developed to assist in pretest counselling. We have evaluated the performance and the inter-rater reliability of four of these models (BRCAPRO, Manchester, Penn and the Myriad-Frank). The four risk assessment models were applied to 380 pedigrees of families who had undergone BRCA1/2 mutation analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, likelihood ratios and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve were calculated for each model. Using a greater than 10% probability threshold, the likelihood that a BRCA test result was positive in a mutation carrier compared to the likelihood that the same result would be expected in an individual without a BRCA mutation was 2.10 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.66–2.67) for Penn, 1.74 (95% CI 1.48–2.04) for Myriad, 1.35 (95% CI 1.19–1.53) for Manchester and 1.68 (95% CI 1.39–2.03) for BRCAPRO. Application of these models, therefore, did not rule in BRCA mutation carrier status. Similar trends were observed for separate BRCA1/2 performance measures except BRCA2 assessment in the Penn model where the positive likelihood ratio was 5.93. The area under the ROC curve for each model was close to 0.75. In conclusion, the four models had very little impact on the pre-test probability of disease; there were significant clinical barriers to using some models and risk estimates varied between experts. Use of models for predicting BRCA mutation status is not currently justified for populations such as that evaluated in the current study

An assessment of existing models for individualized breast cancer risk estimation in a screening program in Spain

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the calibration and discriminatory power of three predictive models of breast cancer risk. Methods: We included 13,760 women who were first-time participants in the Sabadell-Cerdanyola Breast Cancer Screening Program, in Catalonia, Spain. Projections of risk were obtained at three and five years for invasive cancer using the Gail, Chen and Barlow models. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Catalan registries. The calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Harrell’s C statistic. Results: The Gail and Chen models showed good calibration while the Barlow model overestimated the number of cases: the ratio between estimated and observed values at 5 years ranged from 0.86 to 1.55 for the first two models and from 1.82 to 3.44 for the Barlow model. The 5-year projection for the Chen and Barlow models had the highest discrimination, with an AUC around 0.58. The Harrell’s C statistic showed very similar values in the 5-year projection for each of the models. Although they passed the calibration test, the Gail and Chen models overestimated the number of cases in some breast density categories. Conclusions: These models cannot be used as a measure of individual risk in early detection programs to customize screening strategies. The inclusion of longitudinal measures of breast density or other risk factors in joint models of survival and longitudinal data may be a step towards personalized early detection of BC.This study was funded by grant PS09/01340 and The Spanish Network on Chronic Diseases REDISSEC (RD12/0001/0007) from the Health Research Fund (Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria) of the Spanish Ministry of Health

Parma consensus statement on metabolic disruptors

A multidisciplinary group of experts gathered in Parma Italy for a workshop hosted by the University of Parma, May 16–18, 2014 to address concerns about the potential relationship between environmental metabolic disrupting chemicals, obesity and related metabolic disorders. The objectives of the workshop were to: 1. Review findings related to the role of environmental chemicals, referred to as “metabolic disruptors”, in obesity and metabolic syndrome with special attention to recent discoveries from animal model and epidemiology studies; 2. Identify conclusions that could be drawn with confidence from existing animal and human data; 3. Develop predictions based on current data; and 4. Identify critical knowledge gaps and areas of uncertainty. The consensus statements are intended to aid in expanding understanding of the role of metabolic disruptors in the obesity and metabolic disease epidemics, to move the field forward by assessing the current state of the science and to identify research needs on the role of environmental chemical exposures in these diseases. We propose broadening the definition of obesogens to that of metabolic disruptors, to encompass chemicals that play a role in altered susceptibility to obesity, diabetes and related metabolic disorders including metabolic syndrome

Crystal and melt inclusion timescales reveal the evolution of magma migration before eruption

Volatile element concentrations measured in melt inclusions are a key tool used to understand magma migration and degassing, although their original values may be affected by different re-equilibration processes. Additionally, the inclusion-bearing crystals can have a wide range of origins and ages, further complicating the interpretation of magmatic processes. To clarify some of these issues, here we combined olivine diffusion chronometry and melt inclusion data from the 2008 eruption of Llaima volcano (Chile). We found that magma intrusion occurred about 4 years before the eruption at a minimum depth of approximately 8 km. Magma migration and reaction became shallower with time, and about 6 months before the eruption magma reached 3–4 km depth. This can be linked to reported seismicity and ash emissions. Although some ambiguities of interpretation still remain, crystal zoning and melt inclusion studies allow a more complete understanding of magma ascent, degassing, and volcano monitoring data.NRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore)MOE (Min. of Education, S’pore)Published versio

A method to assess the clinical significance of unclassified variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes based on cancer family history

Introduction Unclassified variants (UVs) in the BRCA1/BRCA2 genes are a frequent problem in counseling breast cancer and/or ovarian cancer families. Information about cancer family history is usually available, but has rarely been used to evaluate UVs. The aim of the present study was to identify which is the best combination of clinical parameters that can predict whether a UV is deleterious, to be used for the classification of UVs. Methods We developed logistic regression models with the best combination of clinical features that distinguished a positive control of BRCA pathogenic variants (115 families) from a negative control population of BRCA variants initially classified as UVs and later considered neutral (38 families). Results The models included a combination of BRCAPRO scores, Myriad scores, number of ovarian cancers in the family, the age at diagnosis, and the number of persons with ovarian tumors and/ or breast tumors. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were respectively 0.935 and 0.836 for the BRCA1 and BRCA2 models. For each model, the minimum receiver operating characteristic distance (respectively 90% and 78% specificity for BRCA1 and BRCA2) was chosen as the cutoff value to predict which UVs are deleterious from a study population of 12 UVs, present in 59 Dutch families. The p. S1655F, p. R1699W, and p. R1699Q variants in BRCA1 and the p. Y2660D, p. R2784Q, and p. R3052W variants in BRCA2 are classified as deleterious according to our models. The predictions of the p. L246V variant in BRCA1 and of the p. Y42C, p. E462G, p. R2888C, and p. R3052Q variants in BRCA2 are in agreement with published information of them being neutral. The p. R2784W variant in BRCA2 remains uncertain. Conclusions The present study shows that these developed models are useful to classify UVs in clinical genetic practic