A modelling framework for the assessment of the impacts of alternative policy and management options on the sustainability of Finnish agrifood systems

Recently, a new project focussing on integrated assessment modelling of agrifood systems (IAM-Tools) has been launched at MTT Agrifood Research Finland to gather, evaluate, refine and develop these component models and to link tem in an IAM framework for Finnish conditions

Analysing urban heat island patterns and simulating potential future changes

Climate change is interpreted as one of the most serious environmental problems for the 21st century. Changes in climate are now generally accepted. However, the rate of change has spatial characteristics and is highly uncertain. The Himalaya is experiencing abrupt change; so vulnerability and adaptation studies have become crucial. This pilot study presents initial findings of the research project entitled ‘Human Ecological Implications of Climate Change in the Himalaya.’ A study of climate change perceptions, vulnerability, and adaptation strategies of farming communities of the cool-wet temperate (Lumle) and the hot-wet sub-tropical (Meghauli) villages in Central Nepal was conducted. The findings are derived from the analysis of temperature and precipitation data of last 40 years, and primary data collected in September 2012. Focus Group Discussions, Key Informant Interviews, and Historical Timeline Calender were applied. The changes perceived by the communities are fairly consistent with the meteorological observations and are challenging the sustainability of social-ecological systems and communities’ livelihoods. Farming communities have adopted some strategies to minimize the vulnerability. But the adopted strategies have produced both negative and positive results. Strategies like flood control, shifting crop calendars, occupational changes and labour migrations have produced positive results in livelihood security. Occupational changes and labour migration have negatively impacted local agro-ecology and agricultural economies. Early-harvesting strategies to reduce losses from hailstorm have reduced the food and fodder security. Lack of irrigation for rice-seedlings is severely affecting the efficacy of shifting the rice-transplantation calendar. Conclusions suggest that while farmers have practiced strategies to better management of farms, livelihood sustainabilities are reaching thresholds due to the changing conditions.Rishikesh Pandey, Douglas K Bardsle

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154,012 participants in 31 cohort

The socio-demographic patterning of sexual risk behaviour: a survey of young men in Finland and Estonia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among the youth are an increasing challenge for public health in Europe. This study provided estimates of men's (18–25 years) sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs and their socio-demographic patterning in Finland and Estonia; two countries that are geographically close, but have very different STI epidemics.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Nationally representative cross-sectional population surveys with comparable survey questions were used. Data from self-administered questionnaires for 1765 men aged 18–25 years in Finland (85% of the age cohort was included in the sampling frame, 95% of the sample responded) and 748 in Estonia, with a response rate of 43% respectively, were analysed. Socio-demographic patterning of multiple partners, condom use and self-reported STIs are presented was studied using multiple logistic regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The main findings focus on associations found within each country. In Finland, higher age, low education and to a lesser extent relationship with a non-steady partner increased the likelihood of reporting multiple lifetime-partners, while in Estonia only higher age and low education revealed this effect. In relation to unprotected intercourse, in Finland, higher age, low education and relationship status with a steady partner increased the likelihood of reporting unprotected intercourse. In Estonia, the same was observed only for relationship status. In Finland the likelihood of self-reported STIs increased by older age and lower education and decreased by being with a non-steady partner, while in Estonia, a non-significant increase in self-reported STIs was observed only in the older age group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A clear socio-demographic patterning for sexual behaviour and self-reported STIs was revealed in Finland, but a less consistent trend was seen in Estonia. The findings of this study suggest that prevention strategies should focus in Finland on less educated singles and in Estonia on young men generally.</p

Inequalities in health and health service utilisation among reproductive age women in St. Petersburg, Russia: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Russian society has faced dramatic changes in terms of social stratification since the collapse of the Soviet Union. During this time, extensive reforms have taken place in the organisation of health services, including the development of the private sector. Previous studies in Russia have shown a wide gap in mortality between socioeconomic groups. There are just a few studies on health service utilisation in post-Soviet Russia and data on inequality of health service use are limited. The aim of the present study was to analyse health (self-rated health and self-reported chronic diseases) and health care utilisation patterns by socioeconomic status (SES) among reproductive age women in St. Petersburg.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The questionnaire survey was conducted in 2004 (n = 1147), with a response rate of 67%. Education and income were used as dimensions of SES. The association between SES and health and use of health services was assessed by logistic regression, adjusting for age.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>As expected low SES was associated with poor self-rated health (education: OR = 1.48; personal income: OR = 1.42: family income: OR = 2.31). University education was associated with use of a wider range of outpatient medical services and increased use of the following examinations: Pap smear (age-adjusted OR = 2.06), gynaecological examinations (age-adjusted OR = 1.62) and mammography among older (more than 40 years) women (age-adjusted OR = 1.98). Personal income had similar correlations, but family income was related only to the use of mammography among older women.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study suggests a considerable inequality in health and utilisation of preventive health service among reproductive age women. Therefore, further studies are needed to identify barriers to health promotion resources.</p

Determinants of self rated health and mortality in Russia – are they the same?

BACKGROUND: Research into Russia's health crisis during the 1990s includes studies of both mortality and self-rated health, assuming that the determinants of the two are the same. In this paper, we tested this assumption, using data from a single study on both outcomes and socioeconomic, lifestyle and psychological predictor variables. METHODS: We analysed data from 7 rounds (1994-2001) of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, a panel study of a general population sample (11,482 adults aged over 18 living in households of 2 or more people). Self-rated health was measured on a 5 point scale and dichotomised by combining responses "very poor" and "poor" into poor health. Deaths (n = 782) during a mean follow up of 4.1 years were reported by another household member. Associations between several predictor variables and poor or very poor self-rated health and mortality were measured using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analysis respectively. RESULTS: Poor self-rated health was significantly associated with mortality; hazard ratios, compared with very good, good or average health, were 1.69 (1.36-2.10) in men and 1.74 (1.38-2.20) in women. Low education predicted both mortality and poor self-rated health, but income predicted subjective health more strongly. Smoking doubled the risk of death but was unrelated to subjective wellbeing. Frequent drinkers experienced greater mortality than occasional drinkers, despite reporting better health. In contrast, dissatisfaction with life predicted poor self-rated health, but not mortality. CONCLUSION: Differences between the predictors of subjective health and mortality, even though these outcomes were strongly associated, suggest that influences on subjective health are not restricted to serious disease. These findings also suggest the presence of risk factors for relatively sudden deaths in apparently well people, although further research is required. Meanwhile, caution is required when using studies of self-rated health in Russia to understand the determinants of mortality

О перспективе извлечения йода из продукта утилизации окислителя ракетного топлива

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time