Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: Case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures) the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1) the peak timing of the pandemic; 2) the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3) the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns), but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real-time forecasts of influenza spreading, but they require high-performance computing. The quality of the forecast depends on the level of data integration, thus stressing the need for high-quality data in population-based models, and of progressive updates of validated available empirical knowledge to inform these models

Influenza activity in Europe during eight seasons (1999–2007): an evaluation of the indicators used to measure activity and an assessment of the timing, length and course of peak activity (spread) across Europe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS) has collected clinical and virological data on influenza since 1996 in an increasing number of countries. The EISS dataset was used to characterise important epidemiological features of influenza activity in Europe during eight winters (1999–2007). The following questions were addressed: 1) are the sentinel clinical reports a good measure of influenza activity? 2) how long is a typical influenza season in Europe? 3) is there a west-east and/or south-north course of peak activity ('spread') of influenza in Europe?</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Influenza activity was measured by collecting data from sentinel general practitioners (GPs) and reports by national reference laboratories. The sentinel reports were first evaluated by comparing them to the laboratory reports and were then used to assess the timing and spread of influenza activity across Europe during eight seasons.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found a good match between the clinical sentinel data and laboratory reports of influenza collected by sentinel physicians (overall match of 72% for +/- 1 week difference). We also found a moderate to good match between the clinical sentinel data and laboratory reports of influenza from non-sentinel sources (overall match of 60% for +/- 1 week). There were no statistically significant differences between countries using ILI (influenza-like illness) or ARI (acute respiratory disease) as case definition. When looking at the peak-weeks of clinical activity, the average length of an influenza season in Europe was 15.6 weeks (median 15 weeks; range 12–19 weeks). Plotting the peak weeks of clinical influenza activity reported by sentinel GPs against the longitude or latitude of each country indicated that there was a west-east spread of peak activity (spread) of influenza across Europe in four winters (2001–2002, 2002–2003, 2003–2004 and 2004–2005) and a south-north spread in three winters (2001–2002, 2004–2005 and 2006–2007).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found that: 1) the clinical data reported by sentinel physicians is a valid indicator of influenza activity; 2) the length of influenza activity across the whole of Europe was surprisingly long, ranging from 12–19 weeks; 3) in 4 out of the 8 seasons, there was a west-east spread of influenza, in 3 seasons a south-north spread; not associated with type of dominant virus in those seasons.</p

Conditionally Replicating Adenovirus Expressing TIMP2 Increases Survival in a Mouse Model of Disseminated Ovarian Cancer

Ovarian cancer remains difficult to treat mainly due to presentation of the disease at an advanced stage. Conditionally-replicating adenoviruses (CRAds) are promising anti-cancer agents that selectively kill the tumor cells. The present study evaluated the efficacy of a novel CRAd (Ad5/3-CXCR4-TIMP2) containing the CXCR4 promoter for selective viral replication in cancer cells together with TIMP2 as a therapeutic transgene, targeting the matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) in a murine orthotopic model of disseminated ovarian cancer. An orthotopic model of ovarian cancer was established in athymic nude mice by intraperitonal injection of the human ovarian cancer cell line, SKOV3-Luc, expressing luciferase. Upon confirmation of peritoneal dissemination of the cells by non-invasive imaging, mice were randomly divided into four treatment groups: PBS, Ad-ΔE1-TIMP2, Ad5/3-CXCR4, and Ad5/3-CXCR4-TIMP2. All mice were imaged weekly to monitor tumor growth and were sacrificed upon reaching any of the predefined endpoints, including high tumor burden and significant weight loss along with clinical evidence of pain and distress. Survival analysis was performed using the Log-rank test. The median survival for the PBS cohort was 33 days; for Ad-ΔE1-TIMP2, 39 days; for Ad5/3-CXCR4, 52.5 days; and for Ad5/3-CXCR4-TIMP2, 63 days. The TIMP2-armed CRAd delayed tumor growth and significantly increased survival when compared to the unarmed CRAd. This therapeutic effect was confirmed to be mediated through inhibition of MMP9. Results of the in vivo study support the translational potential of Ad5/3-CXCR4-TIMP2 for treatment of human patients with advanced ovarian cancer

Stromal Fibroblasts in Digestive Cancer

The normal gastrointestinal stroma consists of extra-cellular matrix and a community of stromal cells including fibroblasts, myofibroblasts, smooth muscle cells, pericytes, endothelium and inflammatory cells. α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) positive stromal fibroblasts, often referred to as myofibroblasts or activated fibroblasts, are critical in the development of digestive cancer and help to create an environment that is permissive of tumor growth, angiogenesis and invasion. This review focusses on the contribution of activated fibroblasts in carcinogenesis and where possible directly applies this to, and draws on examples from, gastrointestinal cancer. In particular, the review expands on the definition, types and origins of activated fibroblasts. It examines the molecular biology of stromal fibroblasts and their contribution to the peritumoral microenvironment and concludes by exploring some of the potential clinical applications of this exciting branch of cancer research. Understanding the origin and biology of activated fibroblasts will help in the development of an integrated epithelial-stromal sequence to cancer that will ultimately inform cancer pathogenesis, natural history and future therapeutics

Minimal information for studies of extracellular vesicles (MISEV2023): From basic to advanced approaches

Extracellular vesicles (EVs), through their complex cargo, can reflect the state of their cell of origin and change the functions and phenotypes of other cells. These features indicate strong biomarker and therapeutic potential and have generated broad interest, as evidenced by the steady year-on-year increase in the numbers of scientific publications about EVs. Important advances have been made in EV metrology and in understanding and applying EV biology. However, hurdles remain to realising the potential of EVs in domains ranging from basic biology to clinical applications due to challenges in EV nomenclature, separation from non-vesicular extracellular particles, characterisation and functional studies. To address the challenges and opportunities in this rapidly evolving field, the International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) updates its 'Minimal Information for Studies of Extracellular Vesicles', which was first published in 2014 and then in 2018 as MISEV2014 and MISEV2018, respectively. The goal of the current document, MISEV2023, is to provide researchers with an updated snapshot of available approaches and their advantages and limitations for production, separation and characterisation of EVs from multiple sources, including cell culture, body fluids and solid tissues. In addition to presenting the latest state of the art in basic principles of EV research, this document also covers advanced techniques and approaches that are currently expanding the boundaries of the field. MISEV2023 also includes new sections on EV release and uptake and a brief discussion of in vivo approaches to study EVs. Compiling feedback from ISEV expert task forces and more than 1000 researchers, this document conveys the current state of EV research to facilitate robust scientific discoveries and move the field forward even more rapidly

Tissue-specific and SRSF1-dependent splicing of fibronectin, a matrix protein that controls host cell invasion.

Cell invasion targets specific tissues in physiological placental implantation and pathological metastasis, which raises questions about how this process is controlled. We compare dermis and endometrium capacities to support trophoblast invasion, using matching sets of human primary fibroblasts in a coculture assay with human placental explants. Substituting endometrium, the natural trophoblast target, with dermis dramatically reduces trophoblast interstitial invasion. Our data reveal that endometrium expresses a higher rate of the fibronectin (FN) extra type III domain A+ (EDA+) splicing isoform, which displays stronger matrix incorporation capacity. We demonstrate that the high FN content of the endometrium matrix, and not specifically the EDA domain, supports trophoblast invasion by showing that forced incorporation of plasma FN (EDA-) promotes efficient trophoblast invasion. We further show that the serine/arginine-rich protein serine/arginine-rich splicing factor 1 (SRSF1) is more highly expressed in endometrium and, using RNA interference, that it is involved in the higher EDA exon inclusion rate in endometrium. Our data therefore show a mechanism by which tissues can be distinguished, for their capacity to support invasion, by their different rates of EDA inclusion, linked to their SRSF1 protein levels. In the broader context of cancer pathology, the results suggest that SRSF1 might play a central role not only in the tumor cells, but also in the surrounding stroma