CUSUM: A tool for early feedback about performance?

BACKGROUND: Modern day clinical practice demands evidence justifying our choice of treatment methods. Cumulative sum techniques (cusum) are amongst the simplest statistical methods known. They provide rapid analysis and identification of trends in a series of data. This study highlights use of these techniques as an early performance indicator of a clinical procedure before its implementation. METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients who underwent total hip or knee arthroplasty received a simple dressing – blue gauze and Tegaderm. Cusum charting was used to assess the dressing with regards to skin blistering. At an acceptable level of performance the curve would oscillate about the horizontal axis and the overall trend therefore said to be flat. If performance is unacceptable, the cusum slopes upward. RESULTS: The cusum plot for the twenty patients did not cross the specified control limits. This showed that our simple dressing met specified standards with regards to wound blistering postoperatively. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of this simple, yet versatile cusum technique in the early evaluation of a clinical procedure before its implementation

The Herschel Exploitation of Local Galaxy Andromeda (HELGA) II: Dust and Gas in Andromeda

We present an analysis of the dust and gas in Andromeda, using Herschel images sampling the entire far-infrared peak. We fit a modified-blackbody model to ~4000 quasi-independent pixels with spatial resolution of ~140pc and find that a variable dust-emissivity index (beta) is required to fit the data. We find no significant long-wavelength excess above this model suggesting there is no cold dust component. We show that the gas-to-dust ratio varies radially, increasing from ~20 in the center to ~70 in the star-forming ring at 10kpc, consistent with the metallicity gradient. In the 10kpc ring the average beta is ~1.9, in good agreement with values determined for the Milky Way (MW). However, in contrast to the MW, we find significant radial variations in beta, which increases from 1.9 at 10kpc to ~2.5 at a radius of 3.1kpc and then decreases to 1.7 in the center. The dust temperature is fairly constant in the 10kpc ring (ranging from 17-20K), but increases strongly in the bulge to ~30K. Within 3.1kpc we find the dust temperature is highly correlated with the 3.6 micron flux, suggesting the general stellar population in the bulge is the dominant source of dust heating there. At larger radii, there is a weak correlation between the star formation rate and dust temperature. We find no evidence for 'dark gas' in M31 in contrast to recent results for the MW. Finally, we obtained an estimate of the CO X-factor by minimising the dispersion in the gas-to-dust ratio, obtaining a value of (1.9+/-0.4)x10^20 cm^-2 [K kms^-1]^-1.Comment: 19 pages, 18 figures. Submitted to ApJ April 2012; Accepted July 201

Assessment of differences in peat physico-chemical properties, surface subsidence and GHG emissions between the major land-uses of Selangor peatlands

Tropical peatlands are globally important ecosystems for carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, water storage and regulation, and several other valuable ecosystem services. Despite their importance, peatlands in Southeast Asia have been heavily degraded by anthropogenic disturbances such as drainage, agricultural conversion, and fire. In this spatially extensive study we characterised peat properties, nutrient concentrations, surface subsidence rates and greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands of Selangor, Peninsular Malaysia under different land-uses: Secondary Forest, Fire affected and replanted forest (Burnt), Pineapple Plantation, Mixed Agriculture, Smallholder Oil Palm Monoculture, and Industrial Oil Palm Monoculture. All the measured peat physico-chemical properties and nutrient concentrations were significantly different between land-uses. Principal component analyses indicated that peat under the Mixed Agriculture and Burnt land-uses showed the greatest degree of modification relative to peat under the Secondary Forest land-use. Burnt land-use also showed a significantly higher subsidence rate (4.4 ± 1.2 cm yr−1) than all the other land-uses (ranging between 1.8 ± 0.47 and 3.2 ± 0.5 cm yr−1). Water table was significantly higher at the Burnt land-use (-26 cm) than all other land-uses, likely reflecting fire-prevention drain blocking measures as well as lower land surface heights post fire. Smallholder oil palm land-use had the lowest water table (−68 cm), while water table level in all other land-uses did not significantly differ from that of Secondary Forest (−43 cm). Peat surface level changes were positively related to increase in drainage, showing the importance of maintaining a high water table level in reducing peat degradation and carbon loss from peatlands. Total CO2 (mean range 492 to 1019 mg m−2 hr-1) and CH4 emissions (mean range 637 to 1422 µg m−2 hr-1) did not significantly differ between land-uses or seasons. CH4 emissions were negligible under all land-uses and higher emissions were correlated with a higher water table level. Taken together, the results show that anthropogenic land-use change impacts the physico-chemical properties and nutrient content of peat, and that increased drainage alongside changes in other peat properties leads to increased peat subsidence and carbon loss

Pulsatile blood flow, shear force, energy dissipation and Murray's Law

BACKGROUND: Murray's Law states that, when a parent blood vessel branches into daughter vessels, the cube of the radius of the parent vessel is equal to the sum of the cubes of the radii of daughter blood vessels. Murray derived this law by defining a cost function that is the sum of the energy cost of the blood in a vessel and the energy cost of pumping blood through the vessel. The cost is minimized when vessel radii are consistent with Murray's Law. This law has also been derived from the hypothesis that the shear force of moving blood on the inner walls of vessels is constant throughout the vascular system. However, this derivation, like Murray's earlier derivation, is based on the assumption of constant blood flow. METHODS: To determine the implications of the constant shear force hypothesis and to extend Murray's energy cost minimization to the pulsatile arterial system, a model of pulsatile flow in an elastic tube is analyzed. A new and exact solution for flow velocity, blood flow rate and shear force is derived. RESULTS: For medium and small arteries with pulsatile flow, Murray's energy minimization leads to Murray's Law. Furthermore, the hypothesis that the maximum shear force during the cycle of pulsatile flow is constant throughout the arterial system implies that Murray's Law is approximately true. The approximation is good for all but the largest vessels (aorta and its major branches) of the arterial system. CONCLUSION: A cellular mechanism that senses shear force at the inner wall of a blood vessel and triggers remodeling that increases the circumference of the wall when a shear force threshold is exceeded would result in the observed scaling of vessel radii described by Murray's Law

Exploring the usability of a connected autonomous vehicle human machine interface designed for older adults

Users of Level 4–5 connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) should not need to intervene with the dynamic driving task or monitor the driving environment, as the system will handle all driving functions. CAV human-machine interface (HMI) dashboards for such CAVs should therefore offer features to support user situation awareness (SA) and provide additional functionality that would not be practical within non-autonomous vehicles. Though, the exact features and functions, as well as their usability, might differ depending on factors such as user needs and context of use. The current paper presents findings from a simulator trial conducted to test the usability of a prototype CAV HMI designed for older adults and/or individuals with sensory and/or physical impairments: populations that will benefit enormously from the mobility afforded by CAVs. The HMI was developed to suit needs and requirements of this demographic based upon an extensive review of HMI and HCI principles focused on accessibility, usability and functionality [1, 2], as well as studies with target users. Thirty-one 50-88-year-olds (M 67.52, three 50–59) participated in the study. They experienced four seven-minute simulated journeys, involving inner and outer urban settings with mixed speed-limits and were encouraged to explore the HMI during journeys and interact with features, including a real-time map display, vehicle status, emergency stop, and arrival time. Measures were taken pre-, during- and post- journeys. Key was the System Usability Scale [3] and measures of SA, task load, and trust in computers and automation. As predicted, SA decreased with journey experience and although cognitive load did not, there were consistent negative correlations. System usability was also related to trust in technology but not trust in automation or attitudes towards computers. Overall, the findings are important for those designing, developing and testing CAV HMIs for older adults and individuals with sensory and/or physical impairments

Validation of Results from Knowledge Discovery: Mass Density as a Predictor of Breast Cancer

The purpose of our study is to identify and quantify the association between high breast mass density and breast malignancy using inductive logic programming (ILP) and conditional probabilities, and validate this association in an independent dataset. We ran our ILP algorithm on 62,219 mammographic abnormalities. We set the Aleph ILP system to generate 10,000 rules per malignant finding with a recall >5% and precision >25%. Aleph reported the best rule for each malignant finding. A total of 80 unique rules were learned. A radiologist reviewed all rules and identified potentially interesting rules. High breast mass density appeared in 24% of the learned rules. We confirmed each interesting rule by calculating the probability of malignancy given each mammographic descriptor. High mass density was the fifth highest ranked predictor. To validate the association between mass density and malignancy in an independent dataset, we collected data from 180 consecutive breast biopsies performed between 2005 and 2007. We created a logistic model with benign or malignant outcome as the dependent variable while controlling for potentially confounding factors. We calculated odds ratios based on dichomotized variables. In our logistic regression model, the independent predictors high breast mass density (OR 6.6, CI 2.5–17.6), irregular mass shape (OR 10.0, CI 3.4–29.5), spiculated mass margin (OR 20.4, CI 1.9–222.8), and subject age (β = 0.09, p < 0.0001) significantly predicted malignancy. Both ILP and conditional probabilities show that high breast mass density is an important adjunct predictor of malignancy, and this association is confirmed in an independent data set of prospectively collected mammographic findings

Anthromes dispaying evidence of weekly cycles in active fire data cover 70% of the global land surface

Across the globe, human activities have been gaining importance relatively to climate and ecology as the main controls on fire regimes and consequently human activity became an important driver of the frequency, extent and intensity of vegetation burning worldwide. Our objective in the present study is to look for weekly cycles in vegetation fire activity at global scale as evidence of human agency, relying on the original MODIS active fire detections at 1 km spatial resolution (MCD14ML) and using novel statistical methodologies to detect significant periodicities in time series data. We tested the hypotheses that global fire activity displays weekly cycles and that the weekday with the fewest fires is Sunday. We also assessed the effect of land use and land cover on weekly fire cycle significance by testing those hypotheses separately for the Villages, Settlements, Croplands, Rangelands, Seminatural, and Wildlands anthromes. Based on a preliminary data analysis of the daily global active fire counts periodogram, we developed an harmonic regression model for the mean function of daily fire activity and assumed a linear model for the de-seasonalized time series. For inference purposes, we used a Bayesian methodology and constructed a simultaneous 95% credible band for the mean function. The hypothesis of a Sunday weekly minimum was directly investigated by computing the probabilities that the mean functions of every weekday (Monday to Saturday) are inside the credible band corresponding to mean Sunday fire activity. Since these probabilities are small, there is statistical evidence of significantly fewer fires on Sunday than on the other days of the week. Cropland, rangeland, and seminatural anthromes, which cover 70% of the global land area and account for 94% of the active fires analysed, display weekly cycles in fire activity. Due to lower land management intensity and less strict control over fire size and duration, weekly cycles in Rangelands and Seminatural anthromes, which jointly account for 53.46% of all fires, although statistically significant are weaker than those detected in Croplandsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

GLAST: Understanding the High Energy Gamma-Ray Sky

We discuss the ability of the GLAST Large Area Telescope (LAT) to identify, resolve, and study the high energy gamma-ray sky. Compared to previous instruments the telescope will have greatly improved sensitivity and ability to localize gamma-ray point sources. The ability to resolve the location and identity of EGRET unidentified sources is described. We summarize the current knowledge of the high energy gamma-ray sky and discuss the astrophysics of known and some prospective classes of gamma-ray emitters. In addition, we also describe the potential of GLAST to resolve old puzzles and to discover new classes of sources.Comment: To appear in Cosmic Gamma Ray Sources, Kluwer ASSL Series, Edited by K.S. Cheng and G.E. Romer

Relationships within aphids Cinara (Cupressobium) (Hemiptera) based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences

The relationships between Cinara (Cupressobium) aphids inhabiting woody parts and leaves of conifers belonging to Cupressaceae have been studied using a mitochondrial gene (COI) and a nuclear gene (EF1-α). Based on the COI sequences, genetic distances between species ranged from 5.6 % between Cinara (C.) tujafilina (del Guercio) and Cinara (C.) juniperi (De Geer) to 10.5 % between C. (C.) tujafilina and Cinara (C.) mordvilkoi (Pašek). Genetic distances among EF1-α sequences were lower and showed from 0.1 % between C. cupressi and C. juniperi to 2.3 % between C. tujafilina and C. mordvilkoi. Molecular phylogenetic trees were constructed using the Bayesian inference (BI) phylogenetic analysis and maximum parsimony (MP) criterion. Phylogenetic trees obtained based on COI and EF1-α marker genes created two sister clades. Our results indicate that Cinara (Cupressobium) are a monophyletic group of aphids. Phylogenetic relationships amongst Cupressobium aphids do not result from the association with the host plant, but from the feeding site on the host plant or an ability to change the microhabitat on the plant. As closely related species inhabit similar microhabitats on different host plants, it suggests that the host switching is the main mode of speciation in this subgenus

PRISMA 2020 explanation and elaboration: updated guidance and exemplars for reporting systematic reviews

The methods and results of systematic reviews should be reported in sufficient detail to allow users to assess the trustworthiness and applicability of the review findings. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement was developed to facilitate transparent and complete reporting of systematic reviews and has been updated (to PRISMA 2020) to reflect recent advances in systematic review methodology and terminology. Here, we present the explanation and elaboration paper for PRISMA 2020, where we explain why reporting of each item is recommended, present bullet points that detail the reporting recommendations, and present examples from published reviews. We hope that changes to the content and structure of PRISMA 2020 will facilitate uptake of the guideline and lead to more transparent, complete, and accurate reporting of systematic reviews