On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.We thank the European Forest Fire Information System-EFFIS (http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu) of the European Commission Joint Research Centre for the fire data. We acknowledge the SPEI data providers (http://sac.csic. es/spei/database.html). Special thanks to Joaquín Bedia, Esteve Canyameras, Xavier Castro and Andrej Ceglar for helpful discussions on the study. This work was partially funded by the Project of Interest “NextData” of the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research and by the EU H2020 Project 641762 “ECOPOTENTIAL: Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits through Earth Observations”. Ricardo Trigo was supported by IMDROFLOOD funded by Portuguese FCT (WaterJPI/0004/2014).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

«Репетиции смерти» в стихотворениях “Блюз беженцев» У.Х. Одена и «Беженцы» Р. Джаррелла (к вопросу осмысления проблемы беженцев в американской поззии о второй мировой войне)

The article deals with the best American poems devoted to refugees of the world war II. The comparative analyses based on the thematic and stylistic similarity was carried out. Various forms of the main artistic device – repetition – were studied

Local ecosystem feedbacks and critical transitions in the climate

Global and regional climate models, such as those used in IPCC assessments, are the best tools available for climate predictions. Such models typically account for large-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, these models omit local vegetationenvironment 5 feedbacks that are crucial for critical transitions in ecosystems. Here, we reveal the hypothesis that, if the balance of feedbacks is positive at all scales, local vegetation-environment feedbacks may trigger a cascade of amplifying effects, propagating from local to large scale, possibly leading to critical transitions in the largescale climate. We call for linking local ecosystem feedbacks with large-scale land10 atmosphere feedbacks in global and regional climate models in order to yield climate predictions that we are more confident about

Chaotic Jets

The problem of characterizing the origin of the non-Gaussian properties of transport resulting from Hamiltonian dynamics is addressed. For this purpose the notion of chaotic jet is revisited and leads to the definition of a diagnostic able to capture some singular properties of the dynamics. This diagnostic is applied successfully to the problem of advection of passive tracers in a flow generated by point vortices. We present and discuss this diagnostic as a result of which clues on the origin of anomalous transport in these systems emerge.Comment: Proceedings of the workshop Chaotic transport and complexity in classical and quantum dynamics, Carry le rouet France (2002

A programme for risk assessment and minimisation of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy developed for vedolizumab clinical trials

Introduction Over the past decade, the potential for drug-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) has become an increasingly important consideration in certain drug development programmes, particularly those of immunomodulatory biologics. Whether the risk of PML with an investigational agent is proven (e.g. extrapolated from relevant experience, such as a class effect) or merely theoretical, the serious consequences of acquiring PML require careful risk minimisation and assessment. No single standard for such risk minimisation exists. Vedolizumab is a recently developed monoclonal antibody to α4β7 integrin. Its clinical development necessitated a dedicated PML risk minimisation assessment as part of a global preapproval regulatory requirement. Objective The aim of this study was to describe the multiple risk minimisation elements that were incorporated in vedolizumab clinical trials in inflammatory bowel disease patients as part of the risk assessment and minimisation of PML programme for vedolizumab. Methods A case evaluation algorithm was developed for sequential screening and diagnostic evaluation of subjects who met criteria that indicated a clinical suspicion of PML. An Independent Adjudication Committee provided an independent, unbiased opinion regarding the likelihood of PML. Results Although no cases were detected, all suspected PML events were thoroughly reviewed and successfully adjudicated, making it unlikely that cases were missed. Conclusion We suggest that this programme could serve as a model for pragmatic screening for PML during the clinical development of new drugs

Dynamics of a small neutrally buoyant sphere in a fluid and targeting in Hamiltonian systems

We show that, even in the most favorable case, the motion of a small spherical tracer suspended in a fluid of the same density may differ from the corresponding motion of an ideal passive particle. We demonstrate furthermore how its dynamics may be applied to target trajectories in Hamiltonian systems.Comment: See home page http://lec.ugr.es/~julya