Implications of improved representation of convection for the East Africa water budget using a convection-permitting model

The precipitation and diabatic heating resulting from moist convection make it a key component of the atmospheric water budget in the tropics. With convective parametrisation being a known source of uncertainty in global models, convection-permitting (CP) models are increasingly being used to improve understanding of regional climate. Here, a new 10-year CP simulation is used to study the characteristics of rainfall and atmospheric water budget for East Africa and the Lake Victoria basin. The explicit representation of convection leads to a widespread improvement in the intensities and diurnal cycle of rainfall when compared with a parametrised simulation. Differences in large-scale moisture fluxes lead to a shift in the mean rainfall pattern from the Congo to Lake Victoria basin in the CP simulation - highlighting the important connection between local changes in the representation of convection and larger scale dynamics and rainfall. Stronger lake-land contrasts in buoyancy in the CP model lead to a stronger nocturnal land breeze over Lake Victoria, increasing evaporation and moisture flux convergence (MFC), and likely unrealistically high rainfall. However, for the mountains east of the lake, the CP model produces a diurnal rainfall cycle much more similar to satellite estimates, which is related to differences in the timing of MFC. Results here demonstrate that, whilst care is needed regarding lake forcings, a CP approach offers a more realistic representation of several rainfall characteristics through a more physically-based realisation of the atmospheric dynamics around the complex topography of East Africa

High stakes decisions under uncertainty: dams, development and climate change in the Rufiji river basin

The need to stress test designs and decisions about major infrastructure under climate change conditions is increasingly being recognised. This chapter explores new ways to understand and—if possible—reduce the uncertainty in climate information to enable its use in assessing decisions that have consequences across the water, energy, food and environment sectors. It outlines an approach, applied in the Rufiji River Basin in Tanzania, that addresses uncertainty in climate model projections by weighting them according to different skill metrics; how well the models simulate important climate features. The impact of different weighting approaches on two river basin performance indicators (hydropower generation and environmental flows) is assessed, providing an indication of the reliability of infrastructure investments, including a major proposed dam under different climate model projections. The chapter ends with a reflection on the operational context for applying such approaches and some of the steps taken to address challenges and to engage stakeholders

Extracellular Hsp72 concentration relates to a minimum endogenous criteria during acute exercise-heat exposure

Extracellular heat-shock protein 72 (eHsp72) concentration increases during exercise-heat stress when conditions elicit physiological strain. Differences in severity of environmental and exercise stimuli have elicited varied response to stress. The present study aimed to quantify the extent of increased eHsp72 with increased exogenous heat stress, and determine related endogenous markers of strain in an exercise-heat model. Ten males cycled for 90 min at 50% O2peak in three conditions (TEMP, 20°C/63% RH; HOT, 30.2°C/51%RH; VHOT, 40.0°C/37%RH). Plasma was analysed for eHsp72 pre, immediately post and 24-h post each trial utilising a commercially available ELISA. Increased eHsp72 concentration was observed post VHOT trial (+172.4%) (P<0.05), but not TEMP (-1.9%) or HOT (+25.7%) conditions. eHsp72 returned to baseline values within 24hrs in all conditions. Changes were observed in rectal temperature (Trec), rate of Trec increase, area under the curve for Trec of 38.5°C and 39.0°C, duration Trec ≥ 38.5°C and ≥ 39.0°C, and change in muscle temperature, between VHOT, and TEMP and HOT, but not between TEMP and HOT. Each condition also elicited significantly increasing physiological strain, described by sweat rate, heart rate, physiological strain index, rating of perceived exertion and thermal sensation. Stepwise multiple regression reported rate of Trec increase and change in Trec to be predictors of increased eHsp72 concentration. Data suggests eHsp72 concentration increases once systemic temperature and sympathetic activity exceeds a minimum endogenous criteria elicited during VHOT conditions and is likely to be modulated by large, rapid changes in core temperature

Leadership and Path Characteristics during Walks Are Linked to Dominance Order and Individual Traits in Dogs

Movement interactions and the underlying social structure in groups have relevance across many social-living species. Collective motion of groups could be based on an “egalitarian” decision system, but in practice it is often influenced by underlying social network structures and by individual characteristics. We investigated whether dominance rank and personality traits are linked to leader and follower roles during joint motion of family dogs. We obtained high-resolution spatio-temporal GPS trajectory data (823,148 data points) from six dogs belonging to the same household and their owner during 14 30–40 min unleashed walks. We identified several features of the dogs' paths (e.g., running speed or distance from the owner) which are characteristic of a given dog. A directional correlation analysis quantifies interactions between pairs of dogs that run loops jointly. We found that dogs play the role of the leader about 50–85% of the time, i.e. the leader and follower roles in a given pair are dynamically interchangable. However, on a longer timescale tendencies to lead differ consistently. The network constructed from these loose leader–follower relations is hierarchical, and the dogs' positions in the network correlates with the age, dominance rank, trainability, controllability, and aggression measures derived from personality questionnaires. We demonstrated the possibility of determining dominance rank and personality traits of an individual based only on its logged movement data. The collective motion of dogs is influenced by underlying social network structures and by characteristics such as personality differences. Our findings could pave the way for automated animal personality and human social interaction measurements

Gaia data release 1, the photometric data

CONTEXT. This paper presents an overview of the photometric data that are part of the first Gaia data release. AIMS. The principles of the processing and the main characteristics of the Gaia photometric data are presented. METHODS. The calibration strategy is outlined briefly and the main properties of the resulting photometry are presented. RESULTS. Relations with other broadband photometric systems are provided. The overall precision for the Gaia photometry is shown to be at the milli-magnitude level and has a clear potential to improve further in future releases

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene

Effects of the Distribution of Female Primates on the Number of Males

The spatiotemporal distribution of females is thought to drive variation in mating systems, and hence plays a central role in understanding animal behavior, ecology and evolution. Previous research has focused on investigating the links between female spatiotemporal distribution and the number of males in haplorhine primates. However, important questions remain concerning the importance of spatial cohesion, the generality of the pattern across haplorhine and strepsirrhine primates, and the consistency of previous findings given phylogenetic uncertainty. To address these issues, we examined how the spatiotemporal distribution of females influences the number of males in primate groups using an expanded comparative dataset and recent advances in Bayesian phylogenetic and statistical methods. Specifically, we investigated the effect of female distributional factors (female number, spatial cohesion, estrous synchrony, breeding season duration and breeding seasonality) on the number of males in primate groups. Using Bayesian approaches to control for uncertainty in phylogeny and the model of trait evolution, we found that the number of females exerted a strong influence on the number of males in primate groups. In a multiple regression model that controlled for female number, we found support for temporal effects, particularly involving female estrous synchrony: the number of males increases when females are more synchronously receptive. Similarly, the number of males increases in species with shorter birth seasons, suggesting that greater breeding seasonality makes defense of females more difficult for male primates. When comparing primate suborders, we found only weak evidence for differences in traits between haplorhines and strepsirrhines, and including suborder in the statistical models did not affect our conclusions or give compelling evidence for different effects in haplorhines and strepsirrhines. Collectively, these results demonstrate that male monopolization is driven primarily by the number of females in groups, and secondarily by synchrony of female reproduction within groups

The positive outlook study- a randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of an online self-management program targeting psychosocial issues for men living with HIV: a study protocol

Background: The emergence of HIV as a chronic condition means that people living with HIV are required to takemore responsibility for the self-management of their condition, including making physical, emotional and socialadjustments. This paper describes the design and evaluation of Positive Outlook, an online program aiming toenhance the self-management skills of gay men living with HIV.Methods/design: This study is designed as a randomised controlled trial in which men living with HIV in Australiawill be assigned to either an intervention group or usual care control group. The intervention group willparticipate in the online group program ‘Positive Outlook’. The program is based on self-efficacy theory and uses aself-management approach to enhance skills, confidence and abilities to manage the psychosocial issues associatedwith HIV in daily life. Participants will access the program for a minimum of 90 minutes per week over seven weeks.Primary outcomes are domain specific self-efficacy, HIV related quality of life, and outcomes of health education.Secondary outcomes include: depression, anxiety and stress; general health and quality of life; adjustment to HIV;and social support. Data collection will take place at baseline, completion of the intervention (or eight weeks postrandomisation) and at 12 week follow-up.Discussion: Results of the Positive Outlook study will provide information regarding the effectiveness of onlinegroup programs improving health related outcomes for men living with HIV

Social Competitiveness and Plasticity of Neuroendocrine Function in Old Age: Influence of Neonatal Novelty Exposure and Maternal Care Reliability

Early experience is known to have a profound impact on brain and behavioral function later in life. Relatively few studies, however, have examined whether the effects of early experience remain detectable in the aging animal. Here, we examined the effects of neonatal novelty exposure, an early stimulation procedure, on late senescent rats' ability to win in social competition. During the first 3 weeks of life, half of each litter received daily 3-min exposures to a novel environment while the other half stayed in the home cage. At 24 months of age, pairs of rats competed against each other for exclusive access to chocolate rewards. We found that novelty-exposed rats won more rewards than home-staying rats, indicating that early experience exerts a life-long effect on this aspect of social dominance. Furthermore, novelty-exposed but not home-staying rats exhibited habituation of corticosterone release across repeated days of social competition testing, suggesting that early experience permanently enhances plasticity of the stress response system. Finally, we report a surprising finding that across individual rat families, greater effects of neonatal novelty exposure on stress response plasticity were found among families whose dams provided more reliable, instead of a greater total quantity of, maternal care