The episodic random utility model unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To present an episodic random utility model that unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation. METHODS: First, we introduce two alternative random utility models (RUMs) for health preferences: the episodic RUM and the more common instant RUM. For the interpretation of time trade-off (TTO) responses, we show that the episodic model implies a coefficient estimator, and the instant model implies a mean slope estimator. Secondly, we demonstrate these estimators and the differences between the estimates for 42 health states using TTO responses from the seminal Measurement and Valuation in Health (MVH) study conducted in the United Kingdom. Mean slopes are estimates with and without Dolan's transformation of worse-than-death (WTD) responses. Finally, we demonstrate an exploded probit estimator, an extension of the coefficient estimator for discrete choice data that accommodates both TTO and rank responses. RESULTS: By construction, mean slopes are less than or equal to coefficients, because slopes are fractions and, therefore, magnify downward errors in WTD responses. The Dolan transformation of WTD responses causes mean slopes to increase in similarity to coefficient estimates, yet they are not equivalent (i.e., absolute mean difference = 0.179). Unlike mean slopes, coefficient estimates demonstrate strong concordance with rank-based predictions (Lin's rho = 0.91). Combining TTO and rank responses under the exploded probit model improves the identification of health state values, decreasing the average width of confidence intervals from 0.057 to 0.041 compared to TTO only results. CONCLUSION: The episodic RUM expands upon the theo

The clinical effectiveness of transurethral incision of the prostate : a systematic review of randomised controlled trials

The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com.Peer reviewedPostprin

Latent cluster analysis of ALS phenotypes identifies prognostically differing groups

BACKGROUND Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a degenerative disease predominantly affecting motor neurons and manifesting as several different phenotypes. Whether these phenotypes correspond to different underlying disease processes is unknown. We used latent cluster analysis to identify groupings of clinical variables in an objective and unbiased way to improve phenotyping for clinical and research purposes. METHODS Latent class cluster analysis was applied to a large database consisting of 1467 records of people with ALS, using discrete variables which can be readily determined at the first clinic appointment. The model was tested for clinical relevance by survival analysis of the phenotypic groupings using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS The best model generated five distinct phenotypic classes that strongly predicted survival (p<0.0001). Eight variables were used for the latent class analysis, but a good estimate of the classification could be obtained using just two variables: site of first symptoms (bulbar or limb) and time from symptom onset to diagnosis (p<0.00001). CONCLUSION The five phenotypic classes identified using latent cluster analysis can predict prognosis. They could be used to stratify patients recruited into clinical trials and generating more homogeneous disease groups for genetic, proteomic and risk factor research

A False Start in the Race Against Doping in Sport: Concerns With Cycling’s Biological Passport

Professional cycling has suffered from a number of doping scandals. The sport’s governing bodies have responded by implementing an aggressive new antidoping program known as the biological passport. Cycling’s biological passport marks a departure from traditional antidoping efforts, which have focused on directly detecting prohibited substances in a cyclist’s system. Instead, the biological passport tracks biological variables in a cyclist’s blood and urine over time, monitoring for fluctuations that are thought to indirectly reveal the effects of doping. Although this method of indirect detection is promising, it also raises serious legal and scientific concerns. Since its introduction, the cycling community has debated the reliability of indirect biological-passport evidence and the clarity, consistency, and transparency of its use in proving doping violations. Such uncertainty undermines the legitimacy of finding cyclists guilty of doping based on this indirect evidence alone. Antidoping authorities should address these important concerns before continuing to pursue doping sanctions against cyclists solely on the basis of their biological passports

Heterogeneities in leishmania infantum infection : using skin parasite burdens to identify highly infectious dogs

Background: The relationships between heterogeneities in host infection and infectiousness (transmission to arthropod vectors) can provide important insights for disease management. Here, we quantify heterogeneities in Leishmania infantum parasite numbers in reservoir and non-reservoir host populations, and relate this to their infectiousness during natural infection. Tissue parasite number was evaluated as a potential surrogate marker of host transmission potential. Methods: Parasite numbers were measured by qPCR in bone marrow and ear skin biopsies of 82 dogs and 34 crab-eating foxes collected during a longitudinal study in Amazon Brazil, for which previous data was available on infectiousness (by xenodiagnosis) and severity of infection. Results: Parasite numbers were highly aggregated both between samples and between individuals. In dogs, total parasite abundance and relative numbers in ear skin compared to bone marrow increased with the duration and severity of infection. Infectiousness to the sandfly vector was associated with high parasite numbers; parasite number in skin was the best predictor of being infectious. Crab-eating foxes, which typically present asymptomatic infection and are non-infectious, had parasite numbers comparable to those of non-infectious dogs. Conclusions: Skin parasite number provides an indirect marker of infectiousness, and could allow targeted control particularly of highly infectious dogs

Preventing mental health problems in children : the families in mind population-based cluster randomised controlled trial.

BackgroundExternalising and internalising problems affect one in seven school-aged children and are the single strongest predictor of mental health problems into early adolescence. As the burden of mental health problems persists globally, childhood prevention of mental health problems is paramount. Prevention can be offered to all children (universal) or to children at risk of developing mental health problems (targeted). The relative effectiveness and costs of a targeted only versus combined universal and targeted approach are unknown. This study aims to the effectiveness, costs and uptake of two approaches to early childhood prevention of mental health problems ie: a Combined universal-targeted approach, versus a Targeted only approach, in comparison to current primary care services (Usual care).DesignThree armed, population-level cluster randomised trial (2010-2014) within the universal, well child Maternal Child Health system, attended by more than 80% of families in Victoria, Australia at infant age eight months. Participants: Families of eight month old children from nine participating local government areas. Randomised to one of three groups: Combined, Targeted or Usual care. Intervention: (a) the Combined universal and targeted program where all families are offered the universal Toddlers Without Tears group parenting program followed by the targeted Family Check-Up one-on-one program or (b) the Targeted Family Check-Up program. The Family Check-Up program is only offered to children at risk of behavioural problems. Analysis: Participants will be analysed according to the trial arm to which they were randomised, using logistic and linear regression models to compare primary and secondary outcomes. An economic evaluation (cost consequences analysis) will compare incremental costs to all incremental outcomes from a societal perspective.DiscussionThis trial will inform public health policy by making recommendations about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these early prevention programs. If effective prevention programs can be implemented at the population level, the growing burden of mental health problems could be curbed.<br /

Changes in grassland management and linear infrastructures associated to the decline of an endangered bird population

European grassland birds are experiencing major population declines, mainly due to changes in farmland management. We analyzed the role of habitat availability, grazing management and linear infrastructures (roads and power lines) in explaining spatial and temporal variation in the population density of little bustards (Tetrax tetrax) in Portugal, during a decade in which the species population size halved. We used data from 51 areas (totaling ca. 1,50,000 ha) that were sampled in two different periods (2003–2006 and 2016). In 2003–2006, when the species occurred at high densities, habitat availability was the only factor affecting spatial variation in bustard density. In the 2016 survey, variation in density was explained by habitat availability and livestock management, with reduced bird numbers in areas with higher proportions of cattle. Population declines across the study period were steeper in areas that initially held higher densities of bustards and in areas with a higher proportion of cattle in the total stocking rate. Areas with higher densities of power lines also registered greater density declines, probably due to avoidance behavior and to increased mortality. Overall, our results show little bustards are currently lacking high quality grassland habitat, whose persistence depends on extensive grazing regimes and low linear infrastructure densitiesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Rapid Effects of Marine Reserves via Larval Dispersal

Marine reserves have been advocated worldwide as conservation and fishery management tools. It is argued that they can protect ecosystems and also benefit fisheries via density-dependent spillover of adults and enhanced larval dispersal into fishing areas. However, while evidence has shown that marine reserves can meet conservation targets, their effects on fisheries are less understood. In particular, the basic question of if and over what temporal and spatial scales reserves can benefit fished populations via larval dispersal remains unanswered. We tested predictions of a larval transport model for a marine reserve network in the Gulf of California, Mexico, via field oceanography and repeated density counts of recently settled juvenile commercial mollusks before and after reserve establishment. We show that local retention of larvae within a reserve network can take place with enhanced, but spatially-explicit, recruitment to local fisheries. Enhancement occurred rapidly (2 yrs), with up to a three-fold increase in density of juveniles found in fished areas at the downstream edge of the reserve network, but other fishing areas within the network were unaffected. These findings were consistent with our model predictions. Our findings underscore the potential benefits of protecting larval sources and show that enhancement in recruitment can be manifested rapidly. However, benefits can be markedly variable within a local seascape. Hence, effects of marine reserve networks, positive or negative, may be overlooked when only focusing on overall responses and not considering finer spatially-explicit responses within a reserve network and its adjacent fishing grounds. Our results therefore call for future research on marine reserves that addresses this variability in order to help frame appropriate scenarios for the spatial management scales of interest

High rates of unsuccessful transfer to adult care among young adults with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study aimed to describe the proportion of patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) who had experienced an unsuccessful transfer from a pediatric rheumatology team to an adult rheumatologist and to compare the characteristics of those who achieved successful transfer to those who did not.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a systematic chart review of all patients with JIA who attended their final Montreal Children's Hospital JIA clinic appointment between 1992 and 2005. We tracked these patients for the two years after transfer to an adult rheumatologist. We then compared characteristics of patients with successful and unsuccessful transfers of care. Variables pertaining to disease characteristics, disease severity and psychosocial factors were examined. Univariate analyses were performed to determine if any single factor was associated with the outcome of unsuccessful transfer of care.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>52% of patients fulfilled our criteria for unsuccessful transfer. Of the variables tested, an active joint count (AJC) of zero at last visit was associated with the outcome of unsuccessful transfer (OR = 2.67 (CI 1.16-6.16; p = 0.0199)).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite the presence of a coordinated process of transfer from pediatric to adult health care for the majority of the patients in this study, there was a high rate of unsuccessful transfer and/or sustained follow up which is disheartening. We found that patients with less active disease at the time of transfer, as indicated by a lower AJC, were more likely to be lost to follow up. Recent literature suggests that even in the least severe categories of JIA, 50% of patients persist with active disease into adulthood. Thus educating all JIA patients about the possibility of disease flare in adulthood may improve their adherence to recommendations for sustained follow-up in the adult milieu. This may lead to improvement of longitudinal outcomes for all JIA patients.</p

Reduction in downstream test utilization following introduction of coronary computed tomography in a cardiology practice

To compare utilization of non-invasive ischemic testing, invasive coronary angiography (ICA), and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures before and after introduction of 64-slice multi-detector row coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) in a large urban primary and consultative cardiology practice. We utilized a review of electronic medical records (NotesMD®) and the electronic practice management system (Megawest®) encompassing a 4-year period from 2004 to 2007 to determine the number of exercise treadmill (TME), supine bicycle exercise echocardiography (SBE), single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion stress imaging (MPI), coronary calcium score (CCS), CCTA, ICA, and PCI procedures performed annually. Test utilization in the 2 years prior to and 2 years following availability of CCTA were compared. Over the 4-year period reviewed, the annual utilization of ICA decreased 45% (2,083 procedures in 2004 vs. 1,150 procedures in 2007, P < 0.01) and the percentage of ICA cases requiring PCI increased (19% in 2004 vs. 28% in 2007, P < 0.001). SPECT MPI decreased 19% (3,223 in 2004 vs. 2,614 in 2007 P < 0.02) and exercise stress treadmill testing decreased 49% (471 in 2004 vs. 241 in 2007 P < 0.02). Over the same period, there were no significant changes in measures of practice volume (office and hospital) or the annual incidence of PCI (405 cases in 2004 vs. 326 cases in 2007) but a higher percentage of patients with significant disease undergoing PCI 19% in 2004 vs. 29% in 2007 P < 0.01. Implementation of CCTA resulted in a significant decrease in ICA and a corresponding significant increase in the percentage of ICA cases requiring PCI, indicating that CCTA resulted in more accurate referral for ICA. The reduction in unnecessary ICA is associated with avoidance of potential morbidity and mortality associated with invasive diagnostic testing, reduction of downstream SPECT MPI and TME as well as substantial savings in health care dollars