Uniform stability of a particle approximation of the optimal filter derivative

Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo methods, are a principled set of algorithms to approximate numerically the optimal lter in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. However, when performing maximum likelihood parameter inference in state-space models, it is also necessary to approximate the derivative of the optimal lter with respect to the parameter of the model. Poyiadjis et al. [2005, 2011] present an original particle method to apoproximate this derivative and it was shown in numerical examples to be numerically stable in the sense that it did not deteriorate over time. In this paper we theoretically substantiate this claim. Lp bounds and a central limit theorem for this particle approximation are presented. Under mixing conditions these Lp bounds and the asymptotic variance are uniformly bounded with respect to the time index.This is the final version. It first appeared at http://epubs.siam.org/doi/abs/10.1137/140993703

Practice activity trends among oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to describe practice activity trends among oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia over time. METHODS: All registered oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia were surveyed in 1990 and 2000 using mailed self-complete questionnaires. RESULTS: Data were available from 79 surgeons from 1990 (response rate = 73.8%) and 116 surgeons from 2000 (response rate = 65.1%). The rate of provision of services per visit changed over time with increased rates observed overall (from 1.43 ± 0.05 services per visit in 1990 to 1.66 ± 0.06 services per visit in 2000), reflecting increases in pathology and reconstructive surgery. No change over time was observed in the provision of services per year (4,521 ± 286 services per year in 1990 and 4,503 ± 367 services per year in 2000). Time devoted to work showed no significant change over time (1,682 ± 75 hours per year in 1990 and 1,681 ± 94 hours per year in 2000), while the number of visits per week declined (70 ± 4 visits per week in 1990 to 58 ± 4 visits per week in 2000). CONCLUSIONS: The apparent stability in the volume of services provided per year reflected a counterbalancing of increased services provided per visit and a decrease in the number of visits supplied

Line tester analysis for combining ability and heterosis in Indian mustard (Brassica juncea)

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Skin parasite landscape determines host infectiousness in visceral leishmaniasis

Increasing evidence suggests that the infectiousness of patients for the sand fly vector of visceral leishmaniasis is linked to parasites found in the skin. Using a murine model that supports extensive skin infection with Leishmania donovani, spatial analyses at macro-(quantitative PCR) and micro-(confocal microscopy) scales indicate that parasite distribution is markedly skewed. Mathematical models accounting for this heterogeneity demonstrate that while a patchy distribution reduces the expected number of sand flies acquiring parasites, it increases the infection load for sand flies feeding on a patch, increasing their potential for onward transmission. Models representing patchiness at both macro- and micro-scales provide the best fit with experimental sand fly feeding data, pointing to the importance of the skin parasite landscape as a predictor of host infectiousness. Our analysis highlights the skin as a critical site to consider when assessing treatment efficacy, transmission competence and the impact of visceral leishmaniasis elimination campaigns.Parasitemia has been considered the main determinant of visceral leishmaniasis transmission. By combining imaging, qPCR and experimental xenodiagnoses with mathematical models, Doehl et al. argue that the patchy landscape of parasites in the skin is necessary to explain infectiousness

Use-Exposure Relationships of Pesticides for Aquatic Risk Assessment

Field-scale environmental models have been widely used in aquatic exposure assessments of pesticides. Those models usually require a large set of input parameters and separate simulations for each pesticide in evaluation. In this study, a simple use-exposure relationship is developed based on regression analysis of stochastic simulation results generated from the Pesticide Root-Zone Model (PRZM). The developed mathematical relationship estimates edge-of-field peak concentrations of pesticides from aerobic soil metabolism half-life (AERO), organic carbon-normalized soil sorption coefficient (KOC), and application rate (RATE). In a case study of California crop scenarios, the relationships explained 90–95% of the variances in the peak concentrations of dissolved pesticides as predicted by PRZM simulations for a 30-year period. KOC was identified as the governing parameter in determining the relative magnitudes of pesticide exposures in a given crop scenario. The results of model application also indicated that the effects of chemical fate processes such as partitioning and degradation on pesticide exposure were similar among crop scenarios, while the cross-scenario variations were mainly associated with the landscape characteristics, such as organic carbon contents and curve numbers. With a minimum set of input data, the use-exposure relationships proposed in this study could be used in screening procedures for potential water quality impacts from the off-site movement of pesticides

The prevalence, patterns of usage and people's attitude towards complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) among the Indian community in Chatsworth, South Africa

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine, among the Indian community of Chatsworth, South Africa, the prevalence and utilisation patterns of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), attitudes associated with CAM use and communication patterns of CAM users with their primary care doctors. METHODS: Face-to-face structured interviews were conducted in Chatsworth, a suburb of Durban in which South Africans of Indian origin predominantly reside. Participants were 200 randomly selected adult English-speaking Indian residents. RESULTS: The prevalence of CAM usage for period 2000/2001 was 38.5% (95% confidence interval 31.7% to 45.6%). Spiritual healing and herbal/natural medicines, including vitamins were the most common types of CAM used, accounting for 42.8% and 48.1% respectively of overall CAM usage. People used CAM to treat conditions including diabetes mellitus, headaches, arthritis and joint pains, stress, skin disorders, backaches, hypertension and nasal disorders. Half of the CAM users used allopathic medicines concurrently. The cost of CAM utilization over this 1-year period, incurred by 80.5% of users for the duration of therapy for their most troublesome condition was below R500 (approximately US$50). Age, sex, marital status, religion, level of education and income were shown not to influence the use of CAM. Greater than half (51.9%) of CAM users did so either upon the advice of someone they knew, or after noticing a CAM advertisement in the local press. Seventy-nine percent of CAM users indicated that they had positive outcomes with their treatments. Fifty four percent of CAM users (excluding those using spiritual healing only) failed to inform their doctors that they used CAM. The main reason given by half of this group was that informing their doctors did not seem necessary. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of CAM in Chatsworth is similar to findings in other parts of the world. Although CAM was used to treat many different ailments, this practice could not be attributed to any particular demographic profile. The majority of CAM users were satisfied with the effects of CAM. Findings support a need for greater integration of allopathic medicine and CAM, as well as improved communication between patients and caregivers regarding CAM usage

Discovery and characterization of two new stem rust resistance genes in Aegilops sharonensis

Stem rust is one of the most important diseases of wheat in the world. When single stem rust resistance (Sr) genes are deployed in wheat, they are often rapidly overcome by the pathogen. To this end, we initiated a search for novel sources of resistance in diverse wheat relatives and identified the wild goat grass species Aegilops sharonesis (Sharon goatgrass) as a substantial reservoir of resistance to wheat stem rust. The objectives of this study were to discover and map novel Sr genes in Ae. sharonensis and to explore the possibility of identifying new Sr genes by genome-wide association study (GWAS). We developed two biparental populations between resistant and susceptible accessions of Ae. sharonensis and performed QTL and linkage analysis. In an F6 recombinant inbred line and an F2 population, two genes were identified that mapped to the short arm of chromosome 1Ssh, designated as Sr-1644-1Sh, and the long arm of chromosome 5Ssh, designated as Sr-1644-5Sh. The gene Sr-1644-1Sh confers a high level of resistance to race TTKSK (one of the Ug99 lineage races), while the gene Sr-1644-5Sh conditions strong resistance to TRTTF, another widely virulent race found in Yemen. Additionally, GWAS was conducted on 125 diverse Ae. sharonensis accessions for stem rust resistance. The gene Sr-1644-1Sh was detected by GWAS, while Sr-1644-5Sh was not detected, indicating that the effectiveness of GWAS might be affected by marker density, population structure, low allele frequency and other factors

Transition of plasmodium sporozoites into liver stage-like forms is regulated by the RNA binding protein pumilio

Many eukaryotic developmental and cell fate decisions that are effected post-transcriptionally involve RNA binding proteins as regulators of translation of key mRNAs. In malaria parasites (Plasmodium spp.), the development of round, non-motile and replicating exo-erythrocytic liver stage forms from slender, motile and cell-cycle arrested sporozoites is believed to depend on environmental changes experienced during the transmission of the parasite from the mosquito vector to the vertebrate host. Here we identify a Plasmodium member of the RNA binding protein family PUF as a key regulator of this transformation. In the absence of Pumilio-2 (Puf2) sporozoites initiate EEF development inside mosquito salivary glands independently of the normal transmission-associated environmental cues. Puf2- sporozoites exhibit genome-wide transcriptional changes that result in loss of gliding motility, cell traversal ability and reduction in infectivity, and, moreover, trigger metamorphosis typical of early Plasmodium intra-hepatic development. These data demonstrate that Puf2 is a key player in regulating sporozoite developmental control, and imply that transformation of salivary gland-resident sporozoites into liver stage-like parasites is regulated by a post-transcriptional mechanism

Metabolomics demonstrates divergent responses of two Eucalyptus species to water stress

Past studies of water stress in Eucalyptus spp. generally highlighted the role of fewer than five “important” metabolites, whereas recent metabolomic studies on other genera have shown tens of compounds are affected. There are currently no metabolite profiling data for responses of stress-tolerant species to water stress. We used GC–MS metabolite profiling to examine the response of leaf metabolites to a long (2 month) and severe (Ψpredawn < −2 MPa) water stress in two species of the perennial tree genus Eucalyptus (the mesic Eucalyptus pauciflora and the semi-arid Eucalyptus dumosa). Polar metabolites in leaves were analysed by GC–MS and inorganic ions by capillary electrophoresis. Pressure–volume curves and metabolite measurements showed that water stress led to more negative osmotic potential and increased total osmotically active solutes in leaves of both species. Water stress affected around 30–40% of measured metabolites in E. dumosa and 10–15% in E. pauciflora. There were many metabolites that were affected in E. dumosa but not E. pauciflora, and some that had opposite responses in the two species. For example, in E. dumosa there were increases in five acyclic sugar alcohols and four low-abundance carbohydrates that were unaffected by water stress in E. pauciflora. Re-watering increased osmotic potential and decreased total osmotically active solutes in E. pauciflora, whereas in E. dumosa re-watering led to further decreases in osmotic potential and increases in total osmotically active solutes. This experiment has added several extra dimensions to previous targeted analyses of water stress responses in Eucalyptus, and highlights that even species that are closely related (e.g. congeners) may respond differently to water stress and re-waterin