Ranchers Diverse in Their Drought Management Strategies

Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries,

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of prognostic markers in prostate cancer

This paper demonstrates how economic modelling can be used to derive estimates of the cost-effectiveness of prognostic markers in the management of clinically localised and moderately graded prostate cancer. The model uses a Markov process and is populated using published evidence and local data. The robustness of the results has been tested using sensitivity analysis. Three treatment policies of 'monitoring' (observation), radical prostatectomy, or a selection-based management policy using DNA-ploidy as an experimental marker, have been evaluated. Modelling indicates that a policy of managing these tumours utilising experimental markers has an estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of pound 12 068. Sensitivity analysis shows the results to be relatively sensitive to quality-of-life variables. If novel and experimental markers can achieve specificity in excess of 80%, then a policy of radical surgery for those identified as being at high risk and conservative treatment for the remainder would be both better for patients and cost-effective. The analysis suggests that a radical prostatectomy treatment policy for the moderately graded tumours (Gleason grades -7) modelled in this paper may be inferior to a conservative approach in the absence of reliable prognostic markers, being both more costly and yielding fewer QALYs

The equation of state of solid nickel aluminide

The pressure-volume-temperature equation of state of the intermetallic compound NiAl was calculated theoretically, and compared with experimental measurements. Electron ground states were calculated for NiAl in the CsCl structure, using density functional theory, and were used to predict the cold compression curve and the density of phonon states. The Rose form of compression curve was found to reproduce the ab initio calculations well in compression but exhibited significant deviations in expansion. A thermodynamically-complete equation of state was constructed for NiAl. Shock waves were induced in crystals of NiAl by the impact of laser-launched Cu flyers and by launching NiAl flyers into transparent windows of known properties. The TRIDENT laser was used to accelerate the flyers to speeds between 100 and 600m/s. Point and line-imaging laser Doppler velocimetry was used to measure the acceleration of the flyer and the surface velocity history of the target. The velocity histories were used to deduce the stress state, and hence states on the principal Hugoniot and the flow stress. Flyers and targets were recovered from most experiments. The effect of elasticity and plastic flow in the sample and window was assessed. The ambient isotherm reproduced static compression data very well, and the predicted Hugoniot was consistent with shock compression data

Distance learning improves attainment of professional milestones in the early years of surgical training

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of a surgical sciences e-learning programme in supporting the academic development of surgical trainees during their preparation for professional examination. BACKGROUND: In 2007, a 3-year online part-time Master of Surgical Sciences (MSc) degree programme was launched, utilizing an innovative platform with virtual case scenarios based on common surgical conditions addressed by the curriculum relating to the Membership Examination of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons (MRCS). Multiple-choice questions with feedback and discussion boards facilitated by expert clinical tutors provided formative assessment. Summative assessment comprised written examination at the end of each of the first 2 years (equivalent to MRCS level), culminating in submission of a research dissertation in year 3 toward an MSc. METHODS: Students' age, gender, and level at entry to the programme were documented. Anonymized student feedback from 2008 to 2012 was examined using online questionnaires, and performance in the MSc programme was compared to MRCS examination outcomes for students who had consented to release of their results. RESULTS: A total of 517 surgical trainees from 40 countries were recruited over the 6-year period, and 116 MSc students have graduated to date. Of 368 students, 279 (76%) were foundation doctors (interns) and had not commenced formal surgical training on enrolling in the MSc programme. However, level at entry did not influence performance (P > 0.05 across all 3 years). Average pass rates since the programme launched, for those students completing all of the required assessments, were 84% ± 11% in year 1, 85% ± 10% in year 2, and 88% ± 7% in year 3 of the MSc programme. MSc students had significantly higher MRCS pass rates than nonenrolled trainees (67% vs 51%, P < 0.01, n = 352). There was a significant correlation between MRCS examination performance and overall performance in the MSc (R(2) = 58%; P < 0.01, n = 37). Of 248 respondents, 202 (81%) considered that the MSc would improve their chances of gaining a surgical training post, and 224 (90%) would recommend the programme to their peers. CONCLUSIONS: The online MSc programme supports academic development of trainees in the early years of surgical training, is well received by students, and is associated with improved success in their professional examination

A reappraisal of explosive–effusive silicic eruption dynamics: syn-eruptive assembly of lava from the products of cryptic fragmentation

Silicic volcanic eruptions range in style from gently effusive to highly explosive, and may switch style unpredictably during a single eruption. Direct observations of subaerial rhyolitic eruptions (Chaiten 2008, Cordón Caulle 2011–2012, Chile) challenged long-standing paradigms of explosive and effusive eruptive styles and led to the formulation of new models of hybrid activity. However, the processes that govern such hybrid explosive–effusive activity remain poorly understood. Here, we bring together observations of the well-studied 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption with new textural and petrologic data on erupted products, and video and still imagery of the eruption. We infer that all of the activity – explosive, effusive, and hybrid – was fed by explosive fragmentation at depth, and that effusive behaviour arose from sticking and sintering, in the shallow vent region, of the clastic products of deeper, cryptic fragmentation. We use a scaling approach to determine that there is sufficient time available, during emplacement, for diffusive pyroclast degassing and sintering to produce a degassed plug that occludes the shallow conduit, feeding clastogenic, apparently effusive, lava-like deposits. Based on evidence from Cordón Caulle, and from other similar eruptions, we further argue that hybrid explosive–effusive activity is driven by episodic gas-fracking of the occluding lava plug, fed by the underlying pressurized ash- and pyroclast-laden region. The presence of a pressurized pocket of ash-laden gas within the conduit provides a mechanism for generation of harmonic tremor, and for syn-eruptive laccolith intrusion, both of which were features of the Cordón Caulle eruption. We conclude that the cryptic fragmentation models is more consistent with available evidence than the prevailing model for effusion of silicic lava that assume coherent non-fragmental rise of magma from depth to the surface without wholesale explosive fragmentation

Communication and marketing as tools to cultivate the public's health: a proposed "people and places" framework

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Communication and marketing are rapidly becoming recognized as core functions, or core competencies, in the field of public health. Although these disciplines have fostered considerable academic inquiry, a coherent sense of precisely how these disciplines can inform the practice of public health has been slower to emerge.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In this article we propose a framework – based on contemporary ecological models of health – to explain how communication and marketing can be used to advance public health objectives. The framework identifies the attributes of people (as individuals, as social networks, and as communities or populations) and places that influence health behaviors and health. Communication, i.e., the provision of information, can be used in a variety of ways to foster beneficial change among both people (e.g., activating social support for smoking cessation among peers) and places (e.g., convincing city officials to ban smoking in public venues). Similarly, marketing, i.e., the development, distribution and promotion of products and services, can be used to foster beneficial change among both people (e.g., by making nicotine replacement therapy more accessible and affordable) and places (e.g., by providing city officials with model anti-tobacco legislation that can be adapted for use in their jurisdiction).</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Public health agencies that use their communication and marketing resources effectively to support people in making healthful decisions and to foster health-promoting environments have considerable opportunity to advance the public's health, even within the constraints of their current resource base.</p

Modelling the risk of Taenia solium exposure from pork produced in western Kenya

The tapeworm Taenia solium is the parasite responsible for neurocysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease of public health importance, thought to cause approximately 1/3 of epilepsy cases across endemic regions. The consumption of undercooked infected pork perpetuates the parasite’s life-cycle through the establishment of adult tapeworm infections in the community. Reducing the risk associated with pork consumption in the developing world is therefore a public health priority. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of any one pork meal in western Kenya containing a potentially infective T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption, an aspect of the parasite transmission that has not been estimated before. To estimate this, we used a quantitative food chain risk assessment model built in the @RISK add-on to Microsoft Excel. This model indicates that any one pork meal consumed in western Kenya has a 0.006 (99% Uncertainty Interval (U.I). 0.0002–0.0164) probability of containing at least one viable T. solium cysticercus at the point of consumption and therefore being potentially infectious to humans. This equates to 22,282 (99% U.I. 622–64,134) potentially infective pork meals consumed in the course of one year within Busia District alone. This model indicates a high risk of T. solium infection associated with pork consumption in western Kenya and the work presented here can be built upon to investigate the efficacy of various mitigation strategies for this locality

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative sars-cov-2 infection: An international cohort study

Background The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (740%) had emergency surgery and 280 (248%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (261%) patients. 30-day mortality was 238% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (512%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 380% (219 of 577), accounting for 817% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 175 [95% CI 128-240], p&lt;00001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (230 [165-322], p&lt;00001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3-5 versus grades 1-2 (235 [157-353], p&lt;00001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (155 [101-239], p=0046), emergency versus elective surgery (167 [106-263], p=0026), and major versus minor surgery (152 [101-231], p=0047). Interpretation Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Meeting the review family : exploring review types and associated information retrieval requirements

Background and objectives The last decade has witnessed increased recognition of the value of literature reviews for advancing understanding and decision making. This has been accompanied by an expansion in the range of methodological approaches and types of review. However, there remains uncertainty over definitions and search requirements beyond those for the ‘traditional’ systematic review. This study aims to characterise health related reviews by type and to provide recommendations on appropriate methods of information retrieval based on the available guidance. Methods A list of review types was generated from published typologies and categorised into ‘families’ based on their common features. Guidance on information retrieval for each review type was identified by searching pubmed, medline and Google Scholar, supplemented by scrutinising websites of review producing organisations. Results Forty‐eight review types were identified and categorised into seven families. Published guidance reveals increasing specification of methods for information retrieval; however, much of it remains generic with many review types lacking explicit requirements for the identification of evidence. Conclusions Defining review types and utilising appropriate search methods remain challenging. By familiarising themselves with a range of review methodologies and associated search methods, information specialists will be better equipped to select suitable approaches for future projects