Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

Hydrologic projections are of vital socio-economic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070–2100 compared to 1985–2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning

Wind-driven ventilation improvement with plan typology alteration: a CFD case study of traditional Turkish architecture

Aligned with achieving the goal of net-zero buildings, the implementation of energy-saving techniques in minimizing energy demands is proving more vital than at any time. As practical and economic options, passive strategies in ventilation developed over thousands of years have shown great potential for the reduction of residential energy demands, which are often underestimated in modern building’s construction. In particular, as a cost-effective passive strategy, wind-driven ventilation via windows has huge potential in the enhancement of the indoor air quality (IAQ) of buildings while simultaneously reducing their cooling load. This study aims to investigate the functionality and applicability of a common historical Turkish architectural element called “Cumba” to improve the wind-driven ventilation in modern buildings. A case study building with an archetypal plan and parameters was defined as a result of a survey over 111 existing traditional samples across Turkey. Buildings with and without Cumba were compared in different scenarios by the development of a validated CFD microclimate model. The results of simulations clearly demonstrate that Cumba can enhance the room’s ventilation rate by more than two times while harvesting wind from different directions. It was also found that a flexible window opening strategy can help to increase the mean ventilation rate by 276%. Moreover, the room’s mean air velocity and ventilation rate could be adjusted to a broad range of values with the existence of Cumba. Thus, this study presents important findings about the importance of plan typology in the effectiveness of wind-driven ventilation strategies in modern dwellings

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) Antidepressants in Pregnancy and Congenital Anomalies: Analysis of Linked Databases in Wales, Norway and Funen, Denmark

Background: Hypothesised associations between in utero exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and congenital anomalies, particularly congenital heart defects (CHD), remain controversial. We investigated the putative teratogenicity of SSRI prescription in the 91 days either side of first day of last menstrual period (LMP). Methods and Findings: Three population-based EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries- Norway (2004–2010), Wales (2000–2010) and Funen, Denmark (2000–2010)—were linked to the electronic healthcare databases holding prospectively collected prescription information for all pregnancies in the timeframes available. We included 519,117 deliveries, including foetuses terminated for congenital anomalies, with data covering pregnancy and the preceding quarter, including 462,641 with data covering pregnancy and one year either side. For SSRI exposures 91 days either side of LMP, separately and together, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (ORs, 95%CI) for all major anomalies were estimated. We also explored: pausing or discontinuing SSRIs preconception, confounding, high dose regimens, and, in Wales, diagnosis of depression. Results were combined in meta-analyses. SSRI prescription 91 days either side of LMP was associated with increased prevalence of severe congenital heart defects (CHD) (as defined by EUROCAT guide 1.3, 2005) (34/12,962 [0.26%] vs. 865/506,155 [0.17%] OR 1.50, 1.06–2.11), and the composite adverse outcome of 'anomaly or stillbirth' (473/12962, 3.65% vs. 15829/506,155, 3.13%, OR 1.13, 1.03–1.24). The increased prevalence of all major anomalies combined did not reach statistical significance (3.09% [400/12,962] vs. 2.67% [13,536/506,155] OR 1.09, 0.99–1.21). Adjusting for socio-economic status left ORs largely unchanged. The prevalence of anomalies and severe CHD was reduced when SSRI prescriptions were stopped or paused preconception, and increased when >1 prescription was recorded, but differences were not statistically significant. The dose-response relationship between severe CHD and SSRI dose (meta-regression OR 1.49, 1.12–1.97) was consistent with SSRI-exposure related risk. Analyses in Wales suggested no associations between anomalies and diagnosed depression. Conclusion: The additional absolute risk of teratogenesis associated with SSRIs, if causal, is small. However, the high prevalence of SSRI use augments its public health importance, justifying modifications to preconception care

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressant use in first trimester pregnancy and risk of specific congenital anomalies: A European register-based study

Evidence of an association between early pregnancy exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) and congenital heart defects (CHD) has contributed to recommendations to weigh benefits and risks carefully. The objective of this study was to determine the specificity of association between first trimester exposure to SSRIs and specific CHD and other congenital anomalies (CA) associated with SSRI exposure in the literature (signals). A population-based case-malformed control study was conducted in 12 EUROCAT CA registries covering 2.1 million births 1995-2009 including livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Babies/fetuses with specific CHD (n = 12,876) and non-CHD signal CA (n = 13,024), were compared with malformed controls whose diagnosed CA have not been associated with SSRI in the literature (n = 17,083). SSRI exposure in first trimester pregnancy was associated with CHD overall (OR adjusted for registry 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.86, fluoxetine adjOR 1.43 95% CI 0.85-2.40, paroxetine adjOR 1.53, 95% CI 0.91-2.58) and with severe CHD (adjOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.02-2.39), particularly Tetralogy of Fallot (adjOR 3.16, 95% CI 1.52-6.58) and Ebstein's anomaly (adjOR 8.23, 95% CI 2.92-23.16). Significant associations with SSRI exposure were also found for ano-rectal atresia/stenosis (adjOR 2.46, 95% CI 1.06-5.68), gastroschisis (adjOR 2.42, 95% CI 1.10-5.29), renal dysplasia (adjOR 3.01, 95% CI 1.61-5.61), and clubfoot (adjOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.59-3.65). These data support a teratogenic effect of SSRIs specific to certain anomalies, but cannot exclude confounding by indication or associated factors

A Synthetic Spring-Neap Tidal Cycle for Long-Term Morphodynamic Models

Existing tidal input reduction approaches applied in accelerated morphodynamic simulations aim to capture the dominant tidal forces in a single or double representative tidal cycle, often referred to as a “morphological tide.” These strongly simplified tidal signals fail to represent the tidal extremes and hence poorly allow to represent hydrodynamics in the intertidal areas. Here, a generic method is developed to construct a synthetic spring-neap tidal cycle that (a) represents the original signal; (b) is exactly periodic; and (c) is derived directly from tidal time series or harmonic constituents. The starting point is a fortnightly modulation of the semidiurnal tide to represent spring-neap variations, while conserving periodicity. Diurnal tides and higher harmonics of the semidiurnal tide are included to represent the asymmetry of the tide. The amplitudes and phases of the synthetic signal are then fitted to histograms of water levels and water level gradients derived from the original sea surface elevation time series. A depth-averaged model of the Ems estuary (The Netherlands) demonstrates the effects of alternative tidal input reduction techniques. Adopting the new approach, the along-estuary variation in tidal wave shape is well-represented, leading to an improved representation of extreme tidal conditions. Especially the more realistic representation of intertidal dynamics improves the overall hydrodynamics and residual sand transport patterns, approaching nonschematized tidal dynamics.</p