Ice Dynamics and Morphological Changes During Proglacial Lake Development at Exploradores Glacier, Patagonia

Proglacial lakes are ubiquitous features formed during deglaciarization and are currently increasing in number in Patagonia and elsewhere. Proglacial lakes can affect glacier dynamics, catchment hydrology and have the potential to cause glacial lake outburst floods. Therefore, monitoring the onset and development of proglacial lake formation is relevant to understand glacial processes and anticipate glacier response to climate change. In this study, we integrate geomorphological and ice-dynamic information to assess proglacial lake development in Exploradores Glacier, Chilean Patagonia. We monitor recent spatial and temporal changes in the lower trunk of Exploradores Glacier (10 km2) to provide a 20-year observation record by combining eight uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) surveys between 2019 and 2020, with high-medium resolution satellite imagery (Rapid Eye and Landsat) between 2000 and 2018. We use feature tracking techniques, digital surface elevation model analysis and field data to create a multi-temporal scale (inter-annual and seasonal) and a multi-spatial (cm to km) data set. Our analysis shows that surface velocity overall trend has not changed over the last 20 years and that surface velocity near the terminus is significant (>10 m a−1). Moreover, an exceptional advance over moraine deposits was detected. We also found low downwasting rates (<0.5 m a−1) close to the glacier terminus which are attributed to sufficient ice flux and the insulation effect of the debris-covered surface. However, hundreds of supraglacial ponds were observed and are currently coalescing and expanding by ice-cliff backwasting favoring glacier disintegration. Lastly, it was found that calving losses at the east marginal lake equaled ice-flux input into the lake for the UAV monitored period. This study contributes to a better understanding of glacial lake dynamics during proglacial lake development, and our results may help ice modelling efforts to predict glacier response to future climate scenarios

Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin

Glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age has resulted in the development or expansion of hundreds of glacial lakes in Patagonia. Some of these lakes have produced large (≥ 106 m3) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) damaging inhabited areas. GLOF hazard studies in Patagonia have been mainly based on the analysis of short-term series (≤ 50 years) of flood data and until now no attempt has been made to identify the relative susceptibility of lakes to failure. Power schemes and associated infrastructure are planned for Patagonian basins that have historically been affected by GLOFs, and we now require a thorough understanding of the characteristics of dangerous lakes in order to assist with hazard assessment and planning. In this paper, the conditioning factors of 16 outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes in Patagonia were analysed. These data were used to develop a classification scheme designed to assess outburst susceptibility, based on image classification techniques, flow routine algorithms and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. This scheme was applied to the Baker Basin, Chile, where at least seven moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time. We identified 386 moraine-dammed lakes in the Baker Basin of which 28 were classified with high or very high outburst susceptibility. Commonly, lakes with high outburst susceptibility are in contact with glaciers and have moderate (> 8°) to steep (> 15°) dam outlet slopes, akin to failed lakes in Patagonia. The proposed classification scheme is suitable for first-order GLOF hazard assessments in this region. However, rapidly changing glaciers in Patagonia make detailed analysis and monitoring of hazardous lakes and glaciated areas upstream from inhabited areas or critical infrastructure necessary, in order to better prepare for hazards emerging from an evolving cryosphere

The 2015 Chileno Valley glacial lake outburst flood, Patagonia

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) have become increasingly common over the past century in response to climate change, posing risks for human activities in many mountain regions. In this paper we document and reconstruct the sequence of events and impact of a large GLOF that took place in December 2015 in the Chileno Valley, Patagonia. Hydrograph data suggests that the flood continued for around eight days with an estimated total discharge of 105.6 × 106 m3 of water. The sequence of events was as follows: (1) A large debris flow entered the lake from two steep and largely non-vegetated mountain gullies located northeast of the Chileno Glacier terminus. (2) Water displaced in the lake by the debris flow increased the discharge through the Chileno Lake outflow. (3) Lake and moraine sediments were eroded by the flood. (4) Eroded sediments were redistributed downstream by the GLOF. The post-GLOF channel at the lake outlet widened in some places by >130 m and the surface elevation of the terrain lowered by a maximum of 38.8 ± 1.5 m. Farther downstream, large amounts of entrained sediment were deposited at the head of an alluvial plain and these sediments produced an ~340 m wide fan with an average increase in surface elevation over the pre-GLOF surface of 4.6 ± 1.5 m. We estimate that around 3.5 million m3 of material was eroded from the flood-affected area whilst over 0.5 million m3 of material was deposited in the downstream GLOF fan. The large debris flow that triggered the GLOF was probably a paraglacial response to glacier recession from its Little Ice Age limits. We suggest that GLOFs will continue to occur in these settings in the future as glaciers further recede in response to global warming and produce potentially unstable lakes. Detailed studies of GLOF events are currently limited in Patagonia and the information presented here will therefore help to inform future glacial hazard assessments in this region

Characterization of wood-laden flows in rivers

Inorganic sediment is not the only solid‐fraction component of river flows; flows may also carry significant amounts of large organic material (i.e., large wood), but the characteristics of these wood‐laden flows (WLF) are not well understood yet. With the aim to shed light on these relatively unexamined phenomena, we collected home videos showing natural flows with wood as the main solid component. Analyses of these videos as well as the watersheds and streams where the videos were recorded allowed us to define for the first time WLF, describe the main characteristics of these flows and broaden the definition of wood transport regimes (adding a new regime called here hypercongested wood transport). According to our results, WLF may occur repeatedly, in a large range of catchment sizes, generally in steep, highly confined single thread channels in mountain areas. WLF are typically highly unsteady and the log motion is non‐uniform, as described for other inorganic sediment‐laden flows (e.g., debris flows). The conceptual integration of wood into our understanding of flow phenomena is illustrated by a novel classification defining the transition from clear water to hypercongested, wood and sediment‐laden flows, according to the composition of the mixture (sediment, wood, and water). We define the relevant metrics for the quantification and modelling of WLF, including an exhaustive discussion of different modelling approaches (i.e., Voellmy, Bingham and Manning) and provide a first attempt to simulate WLF. We draw attention to WLF phenomena to encourage further field, theoretical, and experimental investigations that may contribute to a better understanding of flows river basins, leading to more accurate predictions, and better hazard mitigation and management strategies

Cascading processes in a changing environment: Disturbances on fluvial ecosystems in Chile and implications for hazard and risk management

The compound hazard effects of multiple process cascades severely affect Chilean river systems and result in a large variety of disturbances on their ecosystems and alterations of their hydromorphologic regimes leading to extreme impacts on society, environment and infrastructure. The acute, neo-tectonically pre-determined susceptibility to seismic hazards, thewidespread volcanic activity, the increasing glacier retreat and the continuous exposure to forest fires clearly disturb entire riverine systems and concur to trigger severe floods hazards. With the objective to refine the understanding of such cascading processes and to prospect feasible flood riskmanagement strategies in such a rapidly changing environment we first classify the large river basins according to a set of disturbances (i.e. volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, glacier lake outburst floods, wild fires and mass movements). Then, we describe emblematic cases of process cascades which affected specific Chilean drainage basins and resulted in high losses as tangible examples of how the cascading processes may unfold in other river basins with similar characteristics. As an attempt to enrich the debate among management authorities and academia in Chile, and elsewhere, on how to sustainably manage river systems, we: a) highlight the pivotal need to determine the possible process cascades that may profoundly alter the system and b) we suggest to refine hazard and risk assessments accordingly, accounting for the current and future exposure. We advocate, finally, for the adoption of holistic approaches promoting anticipatory adaptation which may result in resilient system responses