Predicting mosquito infection from Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte density and estimating the reservoir of infection

Transmission reduction is a key component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria; yet, it is unclear how the density of transmission stages (gametocytes) influences infection (proportion of mosquitoes infected). Human to mosquito transmission was assessed using 171 direct mosquito feeding assays conducted in Burkina Faso and Kenya. Plasmodium falciparum infects Anopheles gambiae efficiently at low densities (4% mosquitoes at 1/µl blood), although substantially more (>200/µl) are required to increase infection further. In a site in Burkina Faso, children harbour more gametocytes than adults though the non-linear relationship between gametocyte density and mosquito infection means that (per person) they only contribute slightly more to transmission. This method can be used to determine the reservoir of infection in different endemic settings. Interventions reducing gametocyte density need to be highly effective in order to halt human-mosquito transmission, although their use can be optimised by targeting those contributing the most to transmission. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00626.001

A fouryear followup of school children after masstreatment for Schistosomiasis and Soil Transmitted Helminths in Mwea, Central Kenya

Poly-parasitism infections are common in school children in tropical regions, especially in Africa. In a school based schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths de-worming model project in Mwea, Kenya, approximately 40,000 school age children from 86 schools were treated annually with a standard dose of praziquantel (40mg/kg body weight) and albendazole (400mg). A cohort of approximately 2,300 children from 5 sentinel schools were followed up at multiple time points each year for four years and examined for intestinal helminths (Schistosoma mansoni, Trichuris trichiura, Hookworm (Necator americanus) and Ascaris lumbricoides). The overall prevalence of infection in the five schools before treatment was 47.4% for S. mansoni, 16.7% for N. americanus, 0.8% for T. trichiura and 1.7% for A. lumbricoides. The mean intensity of infection, as measured by eggs per gram of faeces (epg) was 146.2 for S. mansoni, 36.3 for N. americanus 1.0 for T. trichiura and 35.8 for A. lumbricoides. After 4 rounds of treatment, prevalence of S. mansoni reduced significantly by 88.7% to 5.4% (95%CI=3.6% -7.1%), a 97.1% reduction. The prevalence and intensity of S. mansoni infection varied by school according to its proximity to irrigated area, with those schools closest to the irrigated areas presenting higher infection prevalence and intensity. Re-infection with schistosomiasis following treatment was observed and is likely to reflect continued environmental transmission due to non-treatment of the adult population. Soil-transmitted helminths are less prevalent in the cohort, with corresponding lower intensity. This may allow albendazole treatment to be reduced to every 2 or 3 years. This study has shown that periodic administration of anthelminthic drugs reduces the prevalence and intensity (which is likely to be a close proxy of morbidity) of intestinal parasitic infections in school-age children. Adults in the community could also be targeted where resources allow in order to further increasing the effectiveness of de-worming programmes. Keywords: Soil transmitted helminths, Schistosomiasis, school age, prevalence, Intensity, mass de-worming, school childre

Volatiles in the Desert: Subtle Remote-sensing Signatures of the Dakhleh Oasis Catastrophic Event, Western Desert, Egypt

Over the past decade members of the Dakhleh Oasis Project have studied enigmatic signatures in the Pleistocene geologic record of portions of the Dakhleh oasis and palaeo-oasis in Egypt's Western Desert [1,2]. In particular, Si-Ca-Al rich glass melt (Dakhleh Glass, Fig. 1) points to a catastrophic event between c.100,000-200,000 years ago [3] in this well-studied African savannah and freshwater lake Middle Stone Age environment [4,5]

Risk Factors for Severe Violence in Intimate Partner Stalking Situations: An Analysis of Police Records

Stalkers can be violent, and empirical studies have sought to identify factors associated with violence perpetrated by the stalker. Most of these works view physical violence as a homogeneous construct and do not differentiate between moderate and severe violence. The present study aims to identify correlates of nonviolent, moderate, and severe physical violence within an archival sample of 369 domestically violent police incident reports, where stalking behavior was indicated. The incident reports utilized in this study occurred between 2013 and 2017, among intimate or ex-intimate partners. The present study explored 12 independent variables that have yielded mixed findings in previous stalking violence literature, as well as two previously untested factors of nonfatal strangulation and child contact. The police records were coded for severity of physical violence using the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale and analyzed using a logistic regression. The regression analysis revealed significant independent associations between the outcome variable of severe physical violence and child contact, history of domestic violence, separation, nonfatal strangulation, jealousy, previous injury, and victim belief of potential harm. These results may help produce pragmatic recommendations for law enforcement agencies and other relevant bodies who seek to identify victims at risk of severe violence, increasing the potential for early intervention and prevention of physical harm. The awareness of factors that are shown to be related to serious physical violence may assist first responders in recognizing which victims may be at risk of serious harm, as well as effectively allocating any appropriate resources to reduce and prevent harm

Multi-Wavelength Modelling of the Beta Leo Debris Disc: 1, 2 or 3 planetesimal populations?

In this paper we present a model of the Beta Leo debris disc, with an emphasis on modelling the resolved PACS images obtained as part of the Herschel key programme DEBRIS. We also present new SPIRE images of the disc at 250 microns, as well as new constraints on the disc from SCUBA-2, mid-IR and scattered light imaging. Combining all available observational constraints, we find three possible models for the Beta Leo (HD102647) debris disc: (i) A 2 component model, comprised of a hot component at 2 AU and a cold component from 15-70 AU. (ii) A 3 component model with hot dust at 2 AU, warm dust at 9 AU, and a cold component from 30-70 AU, is equally valid since the cold emission is not resolved within 30 AU. (iii) A somewhat less likely possibility is that the system consists of a single very eccentric planetesimal population, with pericentres at 2 AU and apocentres at 65 AU. Thus, despite the wealth of observational constraints significant ambiguities remain; deep mid-IR and scattered light imaging of the dust distribution within 30 AU seems the most promising method to resolve the degeneracy. We discuss the implications for the possible planetary system architecture; e.g., the 2 component model suggests planets may exist at 2-15 AU, while the 3 component model suggests planets between 2-30 AU with a stable region containing the dust belt at 9 AU, and there should be no planets between 2-65 AU in the eccentric planetesimal model. We suggest that the hot dust may originate in the disintegration of comets scattered in from the cold disc, and examine all A stars known to harbour both hot and cold dust to consider the possibility that the ratio of hot and cold dust luminosities is indicative of the intervening planetary system architecture.Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures. Accepted to MNRA

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Observed Reductions in Schistosoma mansoni Transmission from Large-Scale Administration of Praziquantel in Uganda: A Mathematical Modelling Study

To date schistosomiasis control programmes based on chemotherapy have largely aimed at controlling morbidity in treated individuals rather than at suppressing transmission. In this study, a mathematical modelling approach was used to estimate reductions in the rate of Schistosoma mansoni reinfection following annual mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Uganda over four years (2003-2006). In doing this we aim to elucidate the benefits of MDA in reducing community transmission.Age-structured models were fitted to a longitudinal cohort followed up across successive rounds of annual treatment for four years (Baseline: 2003, TREATMENT: 2004-2006; n = 1,764). Instead of modelling contamination, infection and immunity processes separately, these functions were combined in order to estimate a composite force of infection (FOI), i.e., the rate of parasite acquisition by hosts.MDA achieved substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI following one round of treatment in areas of low baseline infection intensity, and following two rounds in areas with high and medium intensities. In all areas, the FOI remained suppressed following a third round of treatment.This study represents one of the first attempts to monitor reductions in the FOI within a large-scale MDA schistosomiasis morbidity control programme in sub-Saharan Africa. The results indicate that the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, as a model for other MDA programmes, is likely exerting a significant ancillary impact on reducing transmission within the community, and may provide health benefits to those who do not receive treatment. The results obtained will have implications for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control programmes and the design of monitoring and evaluation approaches in general

Bayesian paternity analysis and mating patterns in a parasitic nematode, Trichostrongylus tenuis

Mating behaviour is a fundamental aspect of the evolutionary ecology of sexually reproducing species, but one that has been under-researched in parasitic nematodes. We analysed mating behaviour in the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis by performing a paternity analysis in a population from a single red grouse host. Paternity of the 150 larval offspring of 25 mothers (sampled from one of the two host caeca) was assigned among 294 candidate fathers (sampled from both caeca). Each candidate father's probability of paternity of each offspring was estimated from 10-locus microsatellite genotypes. Seventy-six (51%) offspring were assigned a father with a probability of >0.8, and the estimated number of unsampled males was 136 (95% credible interval (CI) 77-219). The probability of a male from one caecum fathering an offspring in the other caecum was estimated as 0.024 (95% CI 0.003-0.077), indicating that the junction of the caeca is a strong barrier to dispersal. Levels of promiscuity (defined as the probability of two of an adult's offspring sharing only one parent) were high for both sexes. Variance in male reproductive success was moderately high, possibly because of a combination of random mating and high variance in post-copulatory reproductive success. These results provide the first data on individual mating behaviour among parasitic nematodes