Sää- ja ilmastoriskit Suomessa - Kansallinen arvio

Tähän raporttiin on koottu ajantasainen arvio sään ja ilmaston aiheuttamista riskeistä eri toimialoille Suomessa. Arviossa otettiin huomioon sekä muuttuvan ilmaston että yhteiskunnallisen kehityksen vaikutus riskin muodostumiseen nykyhetkessä ja tulevaisuudessa. Sää- ja ilmastoriskejä pyrittiin hahmottamaan vaaratekijän (riskiä aiheuttava sääilmiö), altistumisen (riskin kohteen sijainti) ja haavoittuvuuden (riskin kohteen ominaisuudet) yhdistelmänä. Sääilmiöt aiheuttavat Suomessa riskejä jo nykyilmastossa. Muun muassa rajuilmat, helleaallot ja rankkasateet aiheuttavat taloudellisia ja terveydellisiä vaikutuksia sekä yleistä haittaa. Tulevaisuudessa riskit muuttuvat ilmastonmuutoksen muuttaessa haitallisia sääilmiöitä. Ilmastonmuutos tuo vähitellen kasvavia riskejä erityisesti ekosysteemeille ja infrastruktuurille. Muualla maailmalla tapahtuvat ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset voivat heijastua epäsuorasti Suomeen globaalien tavara-, energia-, raha- ja ihmisvirtojen kautta. Näiden riskien systemaattinen arviointi on vasta aloitettu. Raportin tavoitteena on tukea yhteiskunnan riskeihin varautumista ja ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutumista eri hallinnon tasoilla ja toimialoilla. Arvio perustuu pääosin kirjallisuudesta löytyviin tutkimuksiin ja selvityksiin sekä asiantuntija-arvioihin. Työ tehtiin “Sää- ja ilmastoriskien arviointi ja toimintamallit” (SIETO)- hankkeessa vuosina 2017–2018

Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND: The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species, especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900-2005. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis, and indicated that a 1 °C increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year⁻¹. The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950-2005. Moreover, similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure, global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change

A Retrospective Overview of Enterovirus Infection Diagnosis and Molecular Epidemiology in the Public Hospitals of Marseille, France (1985–2005)

Human enteroviruses (HEV) are frequent human pathogens and, associated in particular with large outbreaks of aseptic meningitis. Here, we have compiled a database of clinical HEV isolates from the Public Hospitals of Marseille, from 1985 to 2005. Amongst 654 isolates that could be characterized by complete sequencing of the VP1 gene, 98% belonged to species HEV-B; the most frequently isolated serotypes were Echovirus E30, E11, E7, E6 and E4. The high incidence of E30 and the recent emergence of E13 are consistent with reports worldwide and peak HEV isolation occurred mostly in the late spring and summer months. The proportion of echoviruses has decreased across the years, while that of coxsackieviruses has increased. Stool (the most frequent sample type) allowed detection of all identified serotypes. MRC5 (Human lung fibroblasts) cell line was the most conducive cell line for HEV isolation (84.9% of 10 most common serotype isolates, 96.3% in association with BGM (Buffalo green monkey kidney cells)). Previous seroneutralization-based serotype identification demonstrated 55.4% accuracy when compared with molecular VP1 analysis. Our analysis of a large number of clinical strains over 20 years reinforced the validity of VP1 serotyping and showed that comparative p-distance scores can be coupled with phylogenetic analysis to provide non-ambiguous serotype identification. Phylogenetic analysis in the VP1, 2C and 3D regions also provided evidence for recombination events amongst clinical isolates. In particular, it identified isolates with dissimilar VP1 but almost identical nonstructural regions

Species-Area Relationships Are Controlled by Species Traits

The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most thoroughly investigated empirical relationships in ecology. Two theories have been proposed to explain SARs: classical island biogeography theory and niche theory. Classical island biogeography theory considers the processes of persistence, extinction, and colonization, whereas niche theory focuses on species requirements, such as habitat and resource use. Recent studies have called for the unification of these two theories to better explain the underlying mechanisms that generates SARs. In this context, species traits that can be related to each theory seem promising. Here we analyzed the SARs of butterfly and moth assemblages on islands differing in size and isolation. We tested whether species traits modify the SAR and the response to isolation. In addition to the expected overall effects on the area, traits related to each of the two theories increased the model fit, from 69% up to 90%. Steeper slopes have been shown to have a particularly higher sensitivity to area, which was indicated by species with restricted range (slope  = 0.82), narrow dietary niche (slope  = 0.59), low abundance (slope  = 0.52), and low reproductive potential (slope  = 0.51). We concluded that considering species traits by analyzing SARs yields considerable potential for unifying island biogeography theory and niche theory, and that the systematic and predictable effects observed when considering traits can help to guide conservation and management actions

Lipids modulate the conformational dynamics of a secondary multidrug transporter

Direct interactions with lipids have emerged as key determinants of the folding, structure and function of membrane proteins, but an understanding of how lipids modulate protein dynamics is still lacking. Here, we systematically explored the effects of lipids on the conformational dynamics of the proton-powered multidrug transporter LmrP from Lactococcus lactis, using the pattern of distances between spin-label pairs previously shown to report on alternating access of the protein. We uncovered, at the molecular level, how the lipid headgroups shape the conformational-energy landscape of the transporter. The model emerging from our data suggests a direct interaction between lipid headgroups and a conserved motif of charged residues that control the conformational equilibrium through an interplay of electrostatic interactions within the protein. Together, our data lay the foundation for a comprehensive model of secondary multidrug transport in lipid bilayers

Eaten out of house and home:impacts of grazing on ground-dwelling reptiles in Australian grasslands and grassy woodlands

Large mammalian grazers can alter the biotic and abiotic features of their environment through their impacts on vegetation. Grazing at moderate intensity has been recommended for biodiversity conservation. Few studies, however, have empirically tested the benefits of moderate grazing intensity in systems dominated by native grazers. Here we investigated the relationship between (1) density of native eastern grey kangaroos, Macropus giganteus, and grass structure, and (2) grass structure and reptiles (i.e. abundance, richness, diversity and occurrence) across 18 grassland and grassy Eucalyptus woodland properties in south-eastern Australia. There was a strong negative relationship between kangaroo density and grass structure after controlling for tree canopy cover. We therefore used grass structure as a surrogate for grazing intensity. Changes in grazing intensity (i.e. grass structure) significantly affected reptile abundance, reptile species richness, reptile species diversity, and the occurrence of several ground-dwelling reptiles. Reptile abundance, species richness and diversity were highest where grazing intensity was low. Importantly, no species of reptile was more likely to occur at high grazing intensities. Legless lizards (Delma impar, D. inornata) were more likely to be detected in areas subject to moderate grazing intensity, whereas one species (Hemiergis talbingoensis) was less likely to be detected in areas subject to intense grazing and three species (Menetia greyii, Morethia boulengeri, and Lampropholis delicata) did not appear to be affected by grazing intensity. Our data indicate that to maximize reptile abundance, species richness, species diversity, and occurrence of several individual species of reptile, managers will need to subject different areas of the landscape to moderate and low grazing intensities and limit the occurrence and extent of high grazing

Cholesterol Induces Specific Spatial and Orientational Order in Cholesterol/Phospholipid Membranes

In lipid bilayers, cholesterol facilitates the formation of the liquid-ordered phase and enables the formation of laterally ordered structures such as lipid rafts. While these domains have an important role in a variety of cellular processes, the precise atomic-level mechanisms responsible for cholesterol's specific ordering and packing capability have remained unresolved

Cholesterol Induces Specific Spatial and Orientational Order in Cholesterol/Phospholipid Membranes

In lipid bilayers, cholesterol facilitates the formation of the liquid-ordered phase and enables the formation of laterally ordered structures such as lipid rafts. While these domains have an important role in a variety of cellular processes, the precise atomic-level mechanisms responsible for cholesterol's specific ordering and packing capability have remained unresolved