Sub-national public debt in Spain political economy issues and the role of fiscal rules and decentralization

Sub-sovereign public debt in Spain more than doubled over the period 2007-2011 leading to growing concerns on its sustainability and the potential negative spillovers for general government public finance consolidation targets, in particular by rating agencies and international organizations, in the context of the more general public debt crisis suffered by the euro area. Spain offers an interesting case study to understand the fundamental determinants of sub-sovereign debt for a number of reasons. Firstly, the country has witnessed successive waves of fiscal decentralization that have increased the amount of public services provided directly by sub-national governments in a framework of increased fiscal co-responsibility (fiscal autonomy). Secondly, this decentralization process took place in a period in which a number of supra-national and national fiscal rules were put in place in the country. Thirdly, while fiscal rules provide some explicit coordination among the different levels of government, there is also a high degree of market-imposed discipline, as most regional government’s debt is regularly scrutinized by rating agencies. Within this framework, we analyze the evolution and the determinants of sub-sovereign public debt, focusing on regional government debt determinants, including of liabilities accounted for outside the extant definition of EDP public debt. Among the set of determinants we pay special attention to institutional factors (fiscal decentralization, fiscal autonomy, fiscal rules) and market discipline. We do so by estimating empirical models in which we exploit the pool structure of our data (17 regions, over the period 1995-2010) within a GMM econometric approac

A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information

The analysis of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies in the euro area has been traditionally limited by the absence of quarterly fiscal data. To overcome this problem, we provide two new databases in this paper. Firstly, we construct a quarterly database of euro area fiscal variables for the period 1980-2008 for a quite disaggregated set of fiscal variablessecondly, we present a real-time fiscal database for a subset of fiscal variables, composed of bi-annual vintages of data for the euro area period (2000-2009). All models are multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models estimated with available national accounts fiscal data (mostly annual) and, more importantly, monthly and quarterly information taken from the cash accounts of the governments. We provide not seasonallyand seasonally-adjusted data. Focusing solely on intra-annual fiscal information for interpolation purposes allows us to capture genuine intra-annual "fiscal" dynamics in the data. Thus, we provide fiscal data that avoid some problems likely to appear in studies using fiscal time series interpolated on the basis of general macroeconomic indicators, namely the well-known decoupling of tax collection from the evolution of standard macroeconomic tax bases (revenue windfalls/shortfalls)

Institutional determinants of public-private sector linkages

We estimate the probability of public sector leadership – defined as Granger causality from public to private sector wages – in a pool of 18 OECD countries as a function of countries’ institutional features. We find that public-private sector causality results are quite heterogeneous across countries. So, we investigate whether this is related to differences in labor and product market institutions, and notably wage-setting institutions, across countries. Government involvement in collective bargaining, bargaining centralization and collective bargaining systems with predominant regional levels’ systems are positively correlated with the probability of finding public wage leadership. Among the factors that reduce its probability we can underline the impact of globalization and a level of collective bargaining closer to the company one

A New Approach to Social Entrepreneurship: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

All social entrepreneurship experts state that the issue of definition is the main problem affecting research in this field. Although there is no single definition, this is clearly a new domain in the field of research on entrepreneurship. The main objective of this study is to further knowledge in this area by means of a systematic review of scientific literature to determine the conceptual development of social entrepreneurship and to identify the most interesting research trends. This study uses a research method, known as latent semantic analysis (LSA), which has been applied to a database of keywords collected from a rigorous selection of academic articles. The results show that this phenomenon has emerged from two parallel currents within the organization management field; on the one hand, the non-governmental organization (NGO) and voluntary tradition and, on the other, the world of business ethics and corporate social responsibility (CSR). The main lines of future research highlighted in the analysis include the measurement of social impact, venture philanthropy, and hybrid organizations

Short-term monitoring of the Spanish government balance with mixed-frequencies models

We construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the main componentsof the Spanish General Government sector made up of blocks for each one of its subsectors: Central Government, Social Security and aggregate of Regional and Local government sectors. Each block is modelled through its total revenue and expenditure categories, and encompasses a number of indicators, depending on data availability. The mixed-frequencies approach is particularly relevant for the case of Spain, given its institutional set-up and the specific data availability for the different subsectors. All in all, we provide models detailed enough in coverage, while at the same time manageable, to be used: (i) for real-time monitoring of fiscal policies with a focus on quarterly developments of the General Government sector(ii) for the monitoring of general government sub-sectors for which intra-annual data coverage is limited (Regional and Local governments), and (iii) to bridge (translate) into National Accounts available monthly information for the subsectors of the general governmen

Documenting models and workflows: the next challenge in the field of ecological data management

Los modelos ecológicos se han convertido en una pieza clave de esta ciencia. La generación de conocimiento se consigue en buena medida mediante procesos analíticos más o menos complejos aplicados sobre conjuntos de datos diversos. Pero buena parte del conocimiento necesario para diseñar e implementar esos modelos no está accesible a la comunidad científica. Proponemos la creación de herramientas informáticas para documentar, almacenar y ejecutar modelos ecológicos y flujos de trabajo. Estas herramientas (repositorios de modelos) están siendo desarrolladas por otras disciplinas como la biología molecular o las ciencias de la Tierra. Presentamos un repositorio de modelos (ModeleR) desarrollado en el contexto del Observatorio de seguimiento del cambio global de Sierra Nevada (Granada-Almería). Creemos que los repositorios de modelos fomentarán la cooperación entre científicos, mejorando la creación de conocimiento relevante que podría ser transferido a los tomadores de decisiones.Ecological models have become a key part of this scientific discipline. Most of the knowledge created by ecologists is obtained by applying analytical processes to primary data. But most of the information underlying how to create models or use analytic techniques already published in the scientific literature is not readily available to scientists. We are proposing the creation of computer tools that help to document, store and execute ecological models and scientific workflows. These tools (called model repositories) are being developed by other disciplines such as molecular biology and earth science. We are presenting a model repository (called ModeleR) that has been developed in the context of the Sierra Nevada Global Change Observatory (Granada-Almería. Spain). We believe that model repositories will foster cooperation among scientists, enhancing the creation of relevant knowledge that could be transferred to environmental managers.El desarrollo de ModeleR ha sido financiado por la Consejería de Medio Ambiente y Ordenación del Territorio de la Junta de Andalucía a través de la Red de Información Ambiental (REDIAM), gracias a un convenio llamado “Diseño y creación de un repositorio de modelos para la red de información ambiental de Andalucía”. A.J. Pérez-Luque agradece al MICINN por el contrato PTA 2011-6322-I

A toolkit to strengthen government budget surveillance

En este trabajo presentamos una herramienta para el seguimiento en tiempo real de la ejecución presupuestaria de las Administraciones Públicas en España. La herramienta incorpora un conjunto amplio de modelos estadísticos, con diferentes niveles de agregación entre partidas presupuestarias y subsectores de las Administraciones Públicas, que permiten procesar de manera efi ciente la sustancial información mensual y trimestral publicada actualmente por las autoridades estadísticas en España. La principal utilidad de la herramienta es complementar el análisis habitualmente realizado para detectar de manera anticipada posibles riesgos de desviación con respecto a los objetivos fi scales ofi cialesIn this paper we develop a comprehensive short-term fiscal forecasting system of use for the real-time monitoring of the Spanish government’s borrowing requirement. Spain has been at the centre of the recent European sovereign debt crisis, not least because of sizeable failures in meeting public defi cit targets. The system comprises a suite of models, with different levels of disaggregation (bottom-up vs top-downgeneral government vs sub-sectors), which are suitable for the automatic processing of the large amount of monthly/quarterly fi scal data currently published by the Spanish statistical authorities. Our tools are instrumental in the ex-ante detection of risks to offi cial projections, and can thus help reduce the ex-post reputational costs of budgetary slippage. On the basis of our results, we discuss how offi cial monitoring bodies could expand, on one hand, their toolkit to evaluate regular adherence to targets (moving beyond a legalistic approach) and, on the other, their communication policies as regards sources of risks to (ex-ante) compliance with budgetary target

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology from combined galaxy clustering and lensing validation on cosmological simulations

Artículo escrito por un elevado número de autores, solo se referencian el que aparece en primer lugar, el nombre del grupo de colaboración, si le hubiere, y los autores pertenecientes a la UAMWe present a validation of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) 3 × 2-point analysis choices by testing them on Buzzard2.0, a new suite of cosmological simulations that is tailored for the testing and validation of combined galaxy clustering and weak-lensing analyses. We show that the buzzard2.0 simulations accurately reproduce many important aspects of the DES Y3 data, including photometric redshift and magnitude distributions, and the relevant set of two-point clustering and weak-lensing statistics. We then show that our model for the 3 × 2-point data vector is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys assuming the true redshift distributions for our source and lens samples, demonstrating robustness to uncertainties in the modeling of the nonlinear matter power spectrum, nonlinear galaxy bias, and higher-order lensing corrections. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time that our photometric redshift calibration methodology, including information from photometry, spectroscopy, clustering cross-correlations, and galaxy-galaxy lensing ratios, is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys in the presence of realistic photometric redshift uncertaintie

Monitoring annual fiscal targets: a regional application

En este artículo evaluamos el grado de ajuste a los objetivos presupuestarios establecidos de un conjunto de datos de recaudación tributaria de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Usamos la metodología de Kanda (2002), que permite evaluar la probabilidad de alcanzar el objetivo anual prefijado cuando se dispone de información mensual de una parte del año. Los perfiles mensuales estudiados se ajustaron a una senda compatible con el objetivo anual en casi todos los casos estudiados. Además se aprecia una tendencia en los " Impuestos directos y Tasas, precios públicos y otros ingresos" a mostrar un sesgo a la baja respecto al objetivo anual, mientras que el capítulo de "Impuestos indirectos" tiende a presentar errores positivos respecto al objetivo anual.The aim of this paper is to assess adherence to announced annual budgetary targets of a set of fiscal revenue data for the Regional Government of Andalusia (1994-2002). The statistical methodology of Kanda (2002) is employed for evaluating the likelihood of meeting annual fiscal revenue targets, given partial-year monthly data. The results suggest that monthly profiles where consistent in almost all considered cases with the attainment of annual goals. In addition, a trend is observed in " Direct Taxes and Estate and Other Taxes" to under perform annual objectives, while " Indirect Taxes" tend to over perform annual targets