Influence of Hydrological Model Selection on Simulation of Moderate and Extreme Flow Events: A Case Study of the Blue Nile Basin

Five hydrological models were applied based on data from the Blue Nile Basin. Optimal parameters of each model were obtained by automatic calibration. Model performance was tested under both moderate and extreme flow conditions. Extreme events for the model performance evaluation were extracted based on seven criteria. Apart from graphical techniques, there were nine statistical “goodness-of-fit” metrics used to judge the model performance. It was found that whereas the influence of model selection may be minimal in the simulation of normal flow events, it can lead to large under- and/or overestimations of extreme events. Besides, the selection of the best model for extreme events may be influenced by the choice of the statistical “goodness-of-fit” measures as well as the criteria for extraction of high and low flows. It was noted that the use of overall water-balance-based objective function not only is suitable for moderate flow conditions but also influences the models to perform better for high flows than low flows. Thus, the choice of a particular model is recommended to be made on a case by case basis with respect to the objectives of the modeling as well as the results from evaluation of the intermodel differences

Climate anxiety, pro-environmental action and wellbeing: antecedents and outcomes of negative emotional responses to climate change in 28 countries

This study explored the correlates of climate anxiety in a diverse range of national contexts. We analysed cross-sectional data gathered in 32 countries (N = 12,246). Our results show that climate anxiety is positively related to rate of exposure to information about climate change impacts, the amount of attention people pay to climate change information, and perceived descriptive norms about emotional responding to climate change. Climate anxiety was also positively linked to pro-environmental behaviours and negatively linked to mental wellbeing. Notably, climate anxiety had a significant inverse association with mental wellbeing in 31 out of 32 countries. In contrast, it had a significant association with pro-environmental behaviour in 24 countries, and with environmental activism in 12 countries. Our findings highlight contextual boundaries to engagement in environmental action as an antidote to climate anxiety, and the broad international significance of considering negative climate-related emotions as a plausible threat to wellbeing

Negative emotions about climate change are related to insomnia symptoms and mental health : Cross-sectional evidence from 25 countries

Climate change threatens mental health via increasing exposure to the social and economic disruptions created by extreme weather and large-scale climatic events, as well as through the anxiety associated with recognising the existential threat posed by the climate crisis. Considering the growing levels of climate change awareness across the world, negative emotions like anxiety and worry about climate-related risks are a potentially pervasive conduit for the adverse impacts of climate change on mental health. In this study, we examined how negative climate-related emotions relate to sleep and mental health among a diverse non-representative sample of individuals recruited from 25 countries, as well as a Norwegian nationally-representative sample. Overall, we found that negative climate-related emotions are positively associated with insomnia symptoms and negatively related to self-rated mental health in most countries. Our findings suggest that climate-related psychological stressors are significantly linked with mental health in many countries and draw attention to the need for cross-disciplinary research aimed at achieving rigorous empirical assessments of the unique challenge posed to mental health by negative emotional responses to climate change.Peer reviewe

Climate anxiety, wellbeing and pro-environmental action: correlates of negative emotional responses to climate change in 32 countries

This study explored the correlates of climate anxiety in a diverse range of national contexts. We analysed cross-sectional data gathered in 32 countries (N = 12,246). Our results show that climate anxiety is positively related to rate of exposure to information about climate change impacts, the amount of attention people pay to climate change information, and perceived descriptive norms about emotional responding to climate change. Climate anxiety was also positively linked to pro-environmental behaviours and negatively linked to mental wellbeing. Notably, climate anxiety had a significant inverse association with mental wellbeing in 31 out of 32 countries. In contrast, it had a significant association with pro-environmental behaviour in 24 countries, and with environmental activism in 12 countries. Our findings highlight contextual boundaries to engagement in environmental action as an antidote to climate anxiety, and the broad international significance of considering negative climate-related emotions as a plausible threat to wellbeing.publishedVersio

Climate anxiety, wellbeing and pro-environmental action : correlates of negative emotional responses to climate change in 32 countries

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The AuthorsThis study explored the correlates of climate anxiety in a diverse range of national contexts. We analysed cross-sectional data gathered in 32 countries (N = 12,246). Our results show that climate anxiety is positively related to rate of exposure to information about climate change impacts, the amount of attention people pay to climate change information, and perceived descriptive norms about emotional responding to climate change. Climate anxiety was also positively linked to pro-environmental behaviours and negatively linked to mental wellbeing. Notably, climate anxiety had a significant inverse association with mental wellbeing in 31 out of 32 countries. In contrast, it had a significant association with pro-environmental behaviour in 24 countries, and with environmental activism in 12 countries. Our findings highlight contextual boundaries to engagement in environmental action as an antidote to climate anxiety, and the broad international significance of considering negative climate-related emotions as a plausible threat to wellbeing.Peer reviewe

Negative emotions about climate change are related to insomnia symptoms and mental health: Cross-sectional evidence from 25 countries

Climate change threatens mental health via increasing exposure to the social and economic disruptions created by extreme weather and large-scale climatic events, as well as through the anxiety associated with recognising the existential threat posed by the climate crisis. Considering the growing levels of climate change awareness across the world, negative emotions like anxiety and worry about climate-related risks are a potentially pervasive conduit for the adverse impacts of climate change on mental health. In this study, we examined how negative climate-related emotions relate to sleep and mental health among a diverse non-representative sample of individuals recruited from 25 countries, as well as a Norwegian nationally-representative sample. Overall, we found that negative climate-related emotions are positively associated with insomnia symptoms and negatively related to self-rated mental health in most countries. Our findings suggest that climate-related psychological stressors are significantly linked with mental health in many countries and draw attention to the need for cross-disciplinary research aimed at achieving rigorous empirical assessments of the unique challenge posed to mental health by negative emotional responses to climate change

Climate anxiety, wellbeing and pro-environmental action: Correlates of negative emotional responses to climate change in 32 countries

This study explored the correlates of climate anxiety in a diverse range of national contexts. We analysed cross-sectional data gathered in 32 countries (N = 12,246). Our results show that climate anxiety is positively related to rate of exposure to information about climate change impacts, the amount of attention people pay to climate change information, and perceived descriptive norms about emotional responding to climate change. Climate anxiety was also positively linked to pro-environmental behaviours and negatively linked to mental wellbeing. Notably, climate anxiety had a significant inverse association with mental wellbeing in 31 out of 32 countries. In contrast, it had a significant association with pro-environmental behaviour in 24 countries, and with environmental activism in 12 countries. Our findings highlight contextual boundaries to engagement in environmental action as an antidote to climate anxiety, and the broad international significance of considering negative climate-related emotions as a plausible threat to wellbeing

Hydrological Model Supported by a Step-Wise Calibration against Sub-Flows and Validation of Extreme Flow Events

Most hydrological models have fixed structures and their calibrations are typified by a conventional approach in which the overall water balance closure is considered (without a step-wise focus on sub-flows’ variation). Eventually, hydrological modelers are confronted with the difficulty of ensuring both the observed high flows and low flows are accurately reproduced in a single calibration. This study introduced Hydrological Model focusing on Sub-flows’ Variation (HMSV). Calibration of HMSV follows a carefully designed framework comprising sub-flow’s separation, modeling of sub-flows, and checking validity of hydrological extremes. The introduced model and calibration framework were tested using hydro-meteorological data from the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia in Africa. When the conventional calibration approach was adopted through automatic optimization strategy, results from the HMSV were found highly comparable with those of five internationally well recognized hydrological models (AWBM, IHACRES, SACRAMENTO, SIMHYD, and TANK). The new framework enhanced the HMSV performance for reproducing quantiles of both high flows and low flows. The combination of flow separation and step-wise calibration of hydrological model against sub-flows enhances the modeler’s physical insight in identifying which areas need focus in modeling to obtain meaningful simulation results, especially of extreme events. The link for downloading the HMSV is provided

Statistical Uncertainty in Hydrometeorological Trend Analyses

This study demonstrates the existence of uncertainty in hydrometeorological trend analyses using historical rainfall from Kenya in East Africa. With respect to the influence of short- and long-term persistence on trend analyses, a total of 13 approaches of rank-based techniques including Mann-Kendall, Spearman’s Rho, and Cumulative Rank Difference (CRD) tests were employed. Graphically, CRD-based diagnoses of trends and subtrends were performed. To assess data-related uncertainty, a resampling procedure was applied. It was shown that at a selected significance level, the null hypothesis H0 (no trend) can be rejected for trend direction while the evidence to reject H0 (zero trend magnitude) is statistically insufficient. Graphical and statistical approaches when combined yield more influential and comprehensive information for inference than relying purely on statistical results. Alongside an apparent linear trend, variations in the nonlinear (e.g., cyclical) component of the series may also not be due to natural randomness. Method-related uncertainty is not negligible especially for series with persistent fluctuations. These findings shed light on the need to assess uncertainty on trend results. Furthermore, it is recommended that the conclusiveness of trends be cautiously premised not only on statistical grounds but also on more considered physical and/or theoretical understanding of the hydrometeorological processes