Traffic Instabilities in Self-Organized Pedestrian Crowds

In human crowds as well as in many animal societies, local interactions among individuals often give rise to self-organized collective organizations that offer functional benefits to the group. For instance, flows of pedestrians moving in opposite directions spontaneously segregate into lanes of uniform walking directions. This phenomenon is often referred to as a smart collective pattern, as it increases the traffic efficiency with no need of external control. However, the functional benefits of this emergent organization have never been experimentally measured, and the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. In this work, we have studied this phenomenon under controlled laboratory conditions. We found that the traffic segregation exhibits structural instabilities characterized by the alternation of organized and disorganized states, where the lifetime of well-organized clusters of pedestrians follow a stretched exponential relaxation process. Further analysis show that the inter-pedestrian variability of comfortable walking speeds is a key variable at the origin of the observed traffic perturbations. We show that the collective benefit of the emerging pattern is maximized when all pedestrians walk at the average speed of the group. In practice, however, local interactions between slow- and fast-walking pedestrians trigger global breakdowns of organization, which reduce the collective and the individual payoff provided by the traffic segregation. This work is a step ahead toward the understanding of traffic self-organization in crowds, which turns out to be modulated by complex behavioral mechanisms that do not always maximize the group's benefits. The quantitative understanding of crowd behaviors opens the way for designing bottom-up management strategies bound to promote the emergence of efficient collective behaviors in crowds.Comment: Article published in PLoS Computational biology. Freely available here: http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.100244

The Fundamental Diagram of Pedestrian Movement Revisited

The empirical relation between density and velocity of pedestrian movement is not completely analyzed, particularly with regard to the `microscopic' causes which determine the relation at medium and high densities. The simplest system for the investigation of this dependency is the normal movement of pedestrians along a line (single-file movement). This article presents experimental results for this system under laboratory conditions and discusses the following observations: The data show a linear relation between the velocity and the inverse of the density, which can be regarded as the required length of one pedestrian to move. Furthermore we compare the results for the single-file movement with literature data for the movement in a plane. This comparison shows an unexpected conformance between the fundamental diagrams, indicating that lateral interference has negligible influence on the velocity-density relation at the density domain $1 m^{-2}<\rho<5 m^{-2}$. In addition we test a procedure for automatic recording of pedestrian flow characteristics. We present preliminary results on measurement range and accuracy of this method.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Developing standard pedestrian-equivalent factors: passenger car–equivalent approach for dealing with pedestrian diversity

Similar to vehicular traffic, pedestrians, despite having diverse capabilities and body sizes, can be classified as heterogeneous. The use of vehicular traffic resolves the diversity issue with a conversion of heterogeneous vehicle flow into an equivalent flow with the use of passenger car–equivalent (PCE) factors. Analysis of pedestrian flow has yet to incorporate pedestrian diversity analysis implicitly into the design of pedestrian facilities, although some form of adjustment has been suggested. This paper introduces the concept of PCE-type factors for mixed pedestrian traffic called standard pedestrian-equivalent (SPE) factors. Estimates of SPE factors are made relative to the average commuter. The equivalent total travel time approach for PCE estimation was adapted to consider the effects of the differences in physical and operational characteristics of pedestrians, particularly walking speed and body size. Microsimulation of pedestrians was employed to evaluate hypothetical pedestrian proportions so as to generate corresponding flow relationships. Walking speeds and body sizes were varied across different flow conditions, walkway widths, and proportions of other pedestrian types. The first part of this paper explores how the two pedestrian characteristics (walking speed and body size) influence estimated SPE factors. The second part is a case study in which field-collected data illustrate SPE factors calculated for older adults, obese pedestrians, and their combination. An application of SPE factors demonstrates the robustness of the methodology in bridging the gap between pedestrian compositions and planning practice

Feasibility of trial procedures for a randomised controlled trial of a community based group exercise intervention for falls prevention for visually impaired older people: the VIOLET study

Background Visually impaired older people (VIOP) have a higher risk of falling than their sighted peers, and are likely to avoid physical activity. The aim was to adapt the existing Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme for VIOP, delivered in the community, and to investigate the feasibility of conducting a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) of this adapted intervention. Methods Two-centre randomised mixed methods pilot trial and economic evaluation of the adapted group-based FaME programme for VIOP versus usual care. A one hour exercise programme ran weekly over 12 weeks at the study sites (Newcastle and Glasgow), delivered by third sector (voluntary and community) organisations. Participants were advised to exercise at home for an additional two hours over the week. Those randomised to the usual activities group received no intervention. Outcome measures were completed at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks. The potential primary outcome was the Short Form Falls Efficacy Scale – International (SFES-I). Participants’ adherence was assessed by reviewing attendance records and self-reported compliance to the home exercises. Adherence with the course content (fidelity) by instructors was assessed by a researcher. Adverse events were collected in a weekly phone call. Results Eighteen participants, drawn from community-living VIOP were screened; 68 met the inclusion criteria; 64 participants were randomised with 33 allocated to the intervention and 31 to the usual activities arm. 94% of participants provided data at the 12 week visit and 92% at 24 weeks. Adherence was high. The intervention was found to be safe with 76% attending nine or more classes. Median time for home exercise was 50 min per week. There was little or no evidence that fear of falling, balance and falls risk, physical activity, emotional, attitudinal or quality of life outcomes differed between trial arms at follow-up. Conclusions The intervention, FaME, was implemented successfully for VIOP and all progression criteria for a main trial were met. The lack of difference between groups on fear of falling was unsurprising given it was a pilot study but there may have been other contributory factors including suboptimal exercise dose and apparent low risk of falls in participants. These issues need addressing for a future trial

Pedestrian, Crowd, and Evacuation Dynamics

This contribution describes efforts to model the behavior of individual pedestrians and their interactions in crowds, which generate certain kinds of self-organized patterns of motion. Moreover, this article focusses on the dynamics of crowds in panic or evacuation situations, methods to optimize building designs for egress, and factors potentially causing the breakdown of orderly motion.Comment: This is a review paper. For related work see http://www.soms.ethz.c

Preoperative cardiac risk assessment in geriatric patients with hip fractures: an orthopedic surgeons’ perspective

Hip fracture is one of the most common orthopedic conditions and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. With a progressively aging population, the annual incidence of hip fracture is expected to increase substantially. Emerging evidence suggests that early surgery (<24 h) minimizes complications secondary to immobilization, including orthostatic pneumonia and venous thromboembolism. Delayed surgical repair (>48 h) has been consistently demonstrated to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day and 1-year mortality. Nonetheless, early surgery necessitates a shorter time for preoperative medical preparation, in particular cardiac assessment. Patients who undergo emergent orthopedic surgery are therefore at greater risk of perioperative cardiac events than those who undergo elective surgery. In addition, the prompt triage system for preoperative cardiac assessment not only identifies patients at high risk of perioperative cardiac complications but also reduces unnecessary cardiac consultations for low-risk patients. We review the current recommendations for preoperative cardiac assessment adapted for patients with hip fracture and describe our current triage system for preoperative cardiac consultation

Psychometric properties of a German version of the neck pain and disability scale

The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity and the psychometric properties of a German version of the 20-item neck pain and disability scale (NPAD) for use in primary care settings. Four hundred and forty-eight participants from 15 general practices in the area of Göttingen Germany completed a multidimensional questionnaire including a newly developed German version of the NPAD (NPAD-d) and self-reported demographic and clinical information. Reliability was tested using Cronbach’s alpha. Item-to-total score correlations were analysed. Factor structure was explored by using unrestricted principal factor analysis. Construct validity of the NPAD-d was evaluated by simple correlation analyses (Pearson’s rho) with social and clinical characteristics. The discriminative abilities of the NPAD-d were examined by comparing differences between subgroups stratified on non-NPAD-d pain related characteristics using t tests for mean scores. Cronbach’s alpha of NPAD-d was 0.94. Item-to-total scale correlations ranged between 0.414 and 0.829. Exploratory principal factor analysis indicated that the NPAD-d covers one factor with an explained variance of 48%. Correlation analysis showed high correlations with criterion variables. The NAPD-d scores of subgroups of patients were significantly different showing good discriminative validity of the scale. The NPAD-d demonstrated good validity and reliability in this general practice setting. The NPAD-d may be useful in the clinical assessment process and the management of neck pain

Suicide-related behaviors in older patients with new anti-epileptic drug use: data from the VA hospital system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently linked antiepileptic drug (AED) exposure to suicide-related behaviors based on meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials. We examined the relationship between suicide-related behaviors and different AEDs in older veterans receiving new AED monotherapy from the Veterans Health Administration (VA), controlling for potential confounders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>VA and Medicare databases were used to identify veterans 66 years and older, who received a) care from the VA between 1999 and 2004, and b) an incident AED (monotherapy) prescription. Previously validated ICD-9-CM codes were used to identify suicidal ideation or behavior (suicide-related behaviors cases), epilepsy, and other conditions previously associated with suicide-related behaviors. Each case was matched to controls based on prior history of suicide-related behaviors, year of AED prescription, and epilepsy status.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The strongest predictor of suicide-related behaviors (N = 64; Controls N = 768) based on conditional logistic regression analysis was affective disorder (depression, anxiety, or post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD); Odds Ratio 4.42, 95% CI 2.30 to 8.49) diagnosed before AED treatment. Increased suicide-related behaviors were not associated with individual AEDs, including the most commonly prescribed AED in the US - phenytoin.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our extensive diagnostic and treatment data demonstrated that the strongest predictor of suicide-related behaviors for older patients newly treated with AED monotherapy was a previous diagnosis of affective disorder. Additional, research using a larger sample is needed to clearly determine the risk of suicide-related behaviors among less commonly used AEDs.</p