Global Burden of Sickle Cell Anaemia in Children under Five, 2010-2050: Modelling Based on Demographics, Excess Mortality, and Interventions

The global burden of sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is set to rise as a consequence of improved survival in high-prevalence low- and middle-income countries and population migration to higher-income countries. The host of quantitative evidence documenting these changes has not been assembled at the global level. The purpose of this study is to estimate trends in the future number of newborns with SCA and the number of lives that could be saved in under-five children with SCA by the implementation of different levels of health interventions.First, we calculated projected numbers of newborns with SCA for each 5-y interval between 2010 and 2050 by combining estimates of national SCA frequencies with projected demographic data. We then accounted for under-five mortality (U5m) projections and tested different levels of excess mortality for children with SCA, reflecting the benefits of implementing specific health interventions for under-five patients in 2015, to assess the number of lives that could be saved with appropriate health care services. The estimated number of newborns with SCA globally will increase from 305,800 (confidence interval [CI]: 238,400-398,800) in 2010 to 404,200 (CI: 242,500-657,600) in 2050. It is likely that Nigeria (2010: 91,000 newborns with SCA [CI: 77,900-106,100]; 2050: 140,800 [CI: 95,500-200,600]) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2010: 39,700 [CI: 32,600-48,800]; 2050: 44,700 [CI: 27,100-70,500]) will remain the countries most in need of policies for the prevention and management of SCA. We predict a decrease in the annual number of newborns with SCA in India (2010: 44,400 [CI: 33,700-59,100]; 2050: 33,900 [CI: 15,900-64,700]). The implementation of basic health interventions (e.g., prenatal diagnosis, penicillin prophylaxis, and vaccination) for SCA in 2015, leading to significant reductions in excess mortality among under-five children with SCA, could, by 2050, prolong the lives of 5,302,900 [CI: 3,174,800-6,699,100] newborns with SCA. Similarly, large-scale universal screening could save the lives of up to 9,806,000 (CI: 6,745,800-14,232,700) newborns with SCA globally, 85% (CI: 81%-88%) of whom will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. The study findings are limited by the uncertainty in the estimates and the assumptions around mortality reductions associated with interventions.Our quantitative approach confirms that the global burden of SCA is increasing, and highlights the need to develop specific national policies for appropriate public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Further empirical collaborative epidemiological studies are vital to assess current and future health care needs, especially in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India

Sustainable Phosphorus Loadings from Effective and Cost-Effective Phosphorus Management Around the Baltic Sea

Nutrient over-enrichment of the Baltic Sea, accompanied by intensified algal blooms and decreasing water clarity, has aroused widespread concern in the surrounding countries during the last four decades. This work has used a well-tested dynamic mass-balance model to investigate which decrease in total phosphorus loading would be required to meet the environmental goal to restore the trophic state in the Baltic Sea to pre-1960s levels. Furthermore, the extent to which various abatement options may decrease the phosphorus loading in a cost-effective manner has been studied. Upgrading urban sewage treatment in the catchment could, alone or in combination with banning phosphates in detergents, be sufficient to meet the set environmental goal, at an estimated annual basin-wide cost of 0.21–0.43 billion euro. Such a plan would potentially decrease the total phosphorus loading to the Baltic Sea with 6,650–10,200 tonnes per year

Design of cohort studies in chronic diseases using routinely collected databases when a prescription is used as surrogate outcome

BACKGROUND: There has been little research on design of studies based on routinely collected data when the clinical endpoint of interest is not recorded, but can be inferred from a prescription. This often happens when exploring the effect of a drug on chronic diseases. Using the LifeLink claims database in studying the possible anti-inflammatory effects of statins in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), oral steroids (OS) were treated as surrogate of inflammatory flare-ups. We compared two cohort study designs, the first using time to event outcomes and the second using quantitative amount of the surrogate. METHODS: RA patients were extracted from the LifeLink database. In the first study, patients were split into two sub-cohorts based on whether they were using OS within a specified time window of the RA index date (first record of RA). Using Cox models we evaluated the association between time-varying exposure to statins and (i) initiation of OS therapy in the non-users of OS at RA index date and (ii) cessation of OS therapy in the users of OS at RA index date. In the second study, we matched new statin users to non users on age and sex. Zero inflated negative binomial models were used to contrast the number of days' prescriptions of OS in the year following date of statin initiation for the two exposure groups. RESULTS: In the unmatched study, the statin exposure hazard ratio (HR) of initiating OS in the 31451 non-users of OS at RA index date was 0.96(95% CI 0.9,1.1) and the statin exposure HR of cessation of OS therapy in the 6026 users of OS therapy at RA index date was 0.95 (0.87,1.05). In the matched cohort of 6288 RA patients the statin exposure rate ratio for duration on OS therapy was 0.88(0.76,1.02). There was digit preference for outcomes in multiples of 7 and 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: The 'time to event' study design was preferable because it better exploits information on all available patients and provides a degree of robustness toward confounding. We found no convincing evidence that statins reduce inflammation in RA patients

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Protocol for a randomized controlled trial on risk adapted damage control orthopedic surgery of femur shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fractures of the long bones and femur fractures in particular are common in multiple trauma patients, but the optimal management of femur fractures in these patients is not yet resolved. Although there is a trend towards the concept of "Damage Control Orthopedics" (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures as reflected by a significant increase in primary external fixation of femur fractures, current literature is insufficient. Thus, in the era of "evidence-based medicine", there is the need for a more specific, clarifying trial.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The trial is designed as a randomized controlled open-label multicenter study. Multiple trauma patients with femur shaft fractures and a calculated probability of death between 20 and 60% will be randomized to either temporary fracture fixation with fixateur externe and defined secondary definitive treatment (DCO) or primary reamed nailing (early total care). The primary objective is to reduce the extent of organ failure as measured by the maximum sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) score.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The Damage Control Study is the first to evaluate the risk adapted damage control orthopedic surgery concept of femur shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients in a randomized controlled design. The trial investigates the differences in clinical outcome of two currently accepted different ways of treating multiple trauma patients with femoral shaft fractures. This study will help to answer the question whether the "early total care" or the „damage control” concept is associated with better outcome.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10321620</p

Gata4 Is Required for Formation of the Genital Ridge in Mice

In mammals, both testis and ovary arise from a sexually undifferentiated precursor, the genital ridge, which first appears during mid-gestation as a thickening of the coelomic epithelium on the ventromedial surface of the mesonephros. At least four genes (Lhx9, Sf1, Wt1, and Emx2) have been demonstrated to be required for subsequent growth and maintenance of the genital ridge. However, no gene has been shown to be required for the initial thickening of the coelomic epithelium during genital ridge formation. We report that the transcription factor GATA4 is expressed in the coelomic epithelium of the genital ridge, progressing in an anterior-to-posterior (A-P) direction, immediately preceding an A-P wave of epithelial thickening. Mouse embryos conditionally deficient in Gata4 show no signs of gonadal initiation, as their coelomic epithelium remains a morphologically undifferentiated monolayer. The failure of genital ridge formation in Gata4-deficient embryos is corroborated by the absence of the early gonadal markers LHX9 and SF1. Our data indicate that GATA4 is required to initiate formation of the genital ridge in both XX and XY fetuses, prior to its previously reported role in testicular differentiation of the XY gonadHoward Hughes Medical Institut

A method to assess the clinical significance of unclassified variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes based on cancer family history

Introduction Unclassified variants (UVs) in the BRCA1/BRCA2 genes are a frequent problem in counseling breast cancer and/or ovarian cancer families. Information about cancer family history is usually available, but has rarely been used to evaluate UVs. The aim of the present study was to identify which is the best combination of clinical parameters that can predict whether a UV is deleterious, to be used for the classification of UVs. Methods We developed logistic regression models with the best combination of clinical features that distinguished a positive control of BRCA pathogenic variants (115 families) from a negative control population of BRCA variants initially classified as UVs and later considered neutral (38 families). Results The models included a combination of BRCAPRO scores, Myriad scores, number of ovarian cancers in the family, the age at diagnosis, and the number of persons with ovarian tumors and/ or breast tumors. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were respectively 0.935 and 0.836 for the BRCA1 and BRCA2 models. For each model, the minimum receiver operating characteristic distance (respectively 90% and 78% specificity for BRCA1 and BRCA2) was chosen as the cutoff value to predict which UVs are deleterious from a study population of 12 UVs, present in 59 Dutch families. The p. S1655F, p. R1699W, and p. R1699Q variants in BRCA1 and the p. Y2660D, p. R2784Q, and p. R3052W variants in BRCA2 are classified as deleterious according to our models. The predictions of the p. L246V variant in BRCA1 and of the p. Y42C, p. E462G, p. R2888C, and p. R3052Q variants in BRCA2 are in agreement with published information of them being neutral. The p. R2784W variant in BRCA2 remains uncertain. Conclusions The present study shows that these developed models are useful to classify UVs in clinical genetic practic

Cell cycle regulation in hematopoietic stem cells

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) give rise to all lineages of blood cells. Because HSCs must persist for a lifetime, the balance between their proliferation and quiescence is carefully regulated to ensure blood homeostasis while limiting cellular damage. Cell cycle regulation therefore plays a critical role in controlling HSC function during both fetal life and in the adult. The cell cycle activity of HSCs is carefully modulated by a complex interplay between cell-intrinsic mechanisms and cell-extrinsic factors produced by the microenvironment. This fine-tuned regulatory network may become altered with age, leading to aberrant HSC cell cycle regulation, degraded HSC function, and hematological malignancy

Megalin/LRP2 Expression Is Induced by Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptor -Alpha and -Gamma: Implications for PPARs' Roles in Renal Function

BACKGROUND: Megalin is a large endocytic receptor with relevant functions during development and adult life. It is expressed at the apical surface of several epithelial cell types, including proximal tubule cells (PTCs) in the kidney, where it internalizes apolipoproteins, vitamins and hormones with their corresponding carrier proteins and signaling molecules. Despite the important physiological roles of megalin little is known about the regulation of its expression. By analyzing the human megalin promoter, we found three response elements for the peroxisomal proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR). The objective of this study was to test whether megalin expression is regulated by the PPARs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Treatment of epithelial cell lines with PPARα or PPARγ ligands increased megalin mRNA and protein expression. The stimulation of megalin mRNA expression was blocked by the addition of specific PPARα or PPARγ antagonists. Furthermore, PPAR bound to three PPAR response elements located in the megalin promoter, as shown by EMSA, and PPARα and its agonist activated a luciferase construct containing a portion of the megalin promoter and the first response element. Accordingly, the activation of PPARα and PPARγ enhanced megalin expression in mouse kidney. As previously observed, high concentrations of bovine serum albumin (BSA) decreased megalin in PTCs in vitro; however, PTCs pretreated with PPARα and PPARγ agonists avoided this BSA-mediated reduction of megalin expression. Finally, we found that megalin expression was significantly inhibited in the PTCs of rats that were injected with BSA to induce tubulointerstitial damage and proteinuria. Treatment of these rats with PPARγ agonists counteracted the reduction in megalin expression and the proteinuria induced by BSA. CONCLUSIONS: PPARα/γ and their agonists positively control megalin expression. This regulation could have an important impact on several megalin-mediated physiological processes and on pathophysiologies such as chronic kidney disease associated with diabetes and hypertension, in which megalin expression is impaired