Sensitivity study of surface wind flow of a limited area model simulating the extratropical storm Delta affecting the Canary Islands

In November 2005 an extratropical storm named Delta affected the Canary Islands (Spain). The high sustained wind and intense gusts experienced caused significant damage. A numerical sensitivity study of Delta was conducted using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW). A total of 27 simulations were performed. Non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic experiments were designed taking into account physical parameterizations and geometrical factors (size and position of the outer domain, definition or not of nested grids, horizontal resolution and number of vertical levels). The Factor Separation Method was applied in order to identify the major model sensitivity parameters under this unusual meteorological situation. Results associated to percentage changes relatives to a control run simulation demonstrated that boundary layer and surface layer schemes, horizontal resolutions, hydrostaticity option and nesting grid activation were the model configuration parameters with the greatest impact on the 48 h maximum 10 m horizontal wind speed solution

On the evaluation of global sea-salt aerosol models at coastal/orographic sites

Sea-salt aerosol global models are typically evaluated against concentration observations at coastal stations that are unaffected by local surf conditions and thus considered representative of open ocean conditions. Despite recent improvements in sea-salt source functions, studies still show significant model errors in specific regions. Using a multiscale model, we investigated the effect of high model resolution (0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees vs. 1 degrees x 1.4 degrees) upon sea-salt patterns in four stations from the University of Miami Network: Baring Head, Chatam Island, and Invercargill in New Zealand, and Marion Island in the sub-antarctic Indian Ocean. Normalized biases improved from +63.7% to +3.3% and correlation increased from 0.52 to 0.84. The representation of sea/land interfaces, mesoscale circulations, and precipitation with the higher resolution model played a major role in the simulation of annual concentration trends. Our results recommend caution when comparing or constraining global models using surface concentration observations from coastal stations. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Postprint (published version

Aerosols in the CALIOPE air quality modelling system: evaluation and analysis of PM levels, optical depths and chemical composition over Europe

The CALIOPE air quality modelling system is developed and applied to Europe with high spatial resolution (12 km × 12 km). The modelled daily-to-seasonal aerosol variability over Europe in 2004 is evaluated and analysed. Aerosols are estimated from two models, CMAQv4.5 (AERO4) and BSC-DREAM8b. CMAQv4.5 calculates biogenic, anthropogenic and sea salt aerosol and BSC-DREAM8b provides the natural mineral dust contribution from North African deserts. For the evaluation, we use daily PM<sub>10</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub> and aerosol components data from 55 stations of the EMEP/CREATE network and total, coarse and fine aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from 35 stations of the AERONET sun photometer network. Annual correlations between modelled and observed values for PM<sub>10</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> are 0.55 and 0.47, respectively. Correlations for total, coarse and fine AOD are 0.51, 0.63, and 0.53, respectively. The higher correlations of the PM<sub>10</sub> and the coarse mode AOD are largely due to the accurate representation of the African dust influence in the forecasting system. Overall PM and AOD levels are underestimated. The evaluation of the aerosol components highlights underestimations in the fine fraction of carbonaceous matter (EC and OC) and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA; i.e. nitrate, sulphate and ammonium). The scores of the bulk parameters are significantly improved after applying a simple model bias correction based on the observed aerosol composition. The simulated PM<sub>10</sub> and AOD present maximum values over the industrialized and populated Po Valley and Benelux regions. SIA are dominant in the fine fraction representing up to 80% of the aerosol budget in latitudes north of 40° N. In southern Europe, high PM<sub>10</sub> and AOD are linked to the desert dust transport from the Sahara which contributes up to 40% of the aerosol budget. Maximum seasonal ground-level concentrations (PM<sub>10</sub> > 30 μg m<sup>−3</sup>) are found between spring and early autumn. We estimate that desert dust causes daily exceedances of the PM<sub>10</sub> European air quality limit value (50 μg m<sup>−3</sup>) in large areas south of 45° N with more than 75 exceedances per year in the southernmost regions

An annual assessment of air quality with the CALIOPE modeling system over Spain

The CALIOPE project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, aims at establishing an air quality forecasting system for Spain. With this goal, CALIOPE modeling system was developed and applied with high resolution (4 km × 4 km, 1 h) using the HERMES emission model (including emissions of resuspended particles from paved roads) specifically built up for Spain. The present study provides an evaluation and the assessment of the modeling system, coupling WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b for a full-year simulation in 2004 over Spain. The evaluation focuses on the capability of the model to reproduce the temporal and spatial distribution of gas phase species (NO2, O3, and SO2) and particulate matter (PM10) against ground-based measurements from the Spanish air quality monitoring network. The evaluation of the modeling results on an hourly basis shows a strong dependency of the performance of the model on the type of environment (urban, suburban and rural) and the dominant emission sources (traffic, industrial, and background). The O3 chemistry is best represented in summer, when mean hourly variability and high peaks are generally well reproduced. The mean normalized error and bias meet the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) and the European regulations. Modeled O3 shows higher performance for urban than for rural stations, especially at traffic stations in large cities, since stations influenced by traffic emissions (i.e., high-NOx environments) are better characterized with a more pronounced daily variability. NOx/O3 chemistry is better represented under non-limited-NO2 regimes. SO2 is mainly produced from isolated point sources (power generation and transformation industries) which generate large plumes of high SO2 concentration affecting the air quality on a local to national scale where the meteorological pattern is crucial. The contribution of mineral dust from the Sahara desert through the BSC-DREAM8b model helps to satisfactorily reproduce episodic high PM10 concentration peaks at background stations. The model assessment indicates that one of the main air quality-related problems in Spain is the high level of O3. A quarter of the Iberian Peninsula shows more than 30 days exceeding the value 120 μg m−3 for the maximum 8-h O3 concentration as a consequence of the transport of O3 precursors downwind to/from the Madrid and Barcelona metropolitan areas, and industrial areas and cities in the Mediterranean coast

Phase-Space Volume of Regions of Trapped Motion: Multiple Ring Components and Arcs

The phase--space volume of regions of regular or trapped motion, for bounded or scattering systems with two degrees of freedom respectively, displays universal properties. In particular, sudden reductions in the phase-space volume or gaps are observed at specific values of the parameter which tunes the dynamics; these locations are approximated by the stability resonances. The latter are defined by a resonant condition on the stability exponents of a central linearly stable periodic orbit. We show that, for more than two degrees of freedom, these resonances can be excited opening up gaps, which effectively separate and reduce the regions of trapped motion in phase space. Using the scattering approach to narrow rings and a billiard system as example, we demonstrate that this mechanism yields rings with two or more components. Arcs are also obtained, specifically when an additional (mean-motion) resonance condition is met. We obtain a complete representation of the phase-space volume occupied by the regions of trapped motion.Comment: 19 pages, 17 figure

High resolution modelling results of the wind flow over Canary Islands during the meteorological situation of the extratropical storm Delta (28–30 November 2005)

On 28–29 November 2005 an extratropical storm affected the Canary Islands causing significant damage related to high average wind speeds and intense gusts over some islands of the archipelago. Delta was the twenty-sixth tropical or subtropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It represents an unusual meteorological phenomenon for that region, and its impacts were underestimated by the different operational meteorological forecasts during the previous days of the arrival of the low near Canary Islands. The aim of this study is to reproduce the local effects of the flow that were observed over the Canary Islands during the travel of the Delta storm near the region using high-resolution mesoscale meteorological simulations. The Advanced Research Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) is applied at 9, 3 and 1 km horizontal resolution using ECMWF forecasts as initial and boundary conditions. The high-resolution simulation will outline the main features that contributed to the high wind speeds observed in the archipelago. Variations in vertical static stability, vertical windshear and the intense synoptic winds of the southwestern part of Delta with a warm core at 850 hPa were the main characteristics that contributed to the development and amplification of intense gravity waves while the large-scale flow interacted with the complex topography of the islands

Assessment of Kalman filter bias-adjustment technique to improve the simulation of ground-level ozone over Spain

The CALIOPE air quality modelling system has been used to diagnose ground level O3 concentration for the year 2004, over the Iberian Peninsula. We investigate the improvement in the simulation of daily O3 maximum by the use of a post-processing such as the Kalman filter bias-adjustment technique. The Kalman filter bias-adjustment technique is a recursive algorithm to optimally estimate bias-adjustment terms from previous measurements and model results. The bias-adjustment technique improved the simulation of daily O3 maximum for the entire year and the all the stations considered over the whole domain. The corrected simulation presents improvements in statistical indicators such as correlation, root mean square error, mean bias, and gross error. After the post-processing the exceedances of O3 concentration limits, as established by the European Directive 2008/50/CE, are better reproduced and the uncertainty of the modelling system, as established by the European Directive 2008/50/CE, is reduced from 20% to 7.5%. Such uncertainty in the model results is under the established EU limit of the 50%. Significant improvements in the O3 timing and amplitude of the daily cycle are also observed after the post-processing. The systematic improvements in the O3 maximum simulations suggest that the Kalman filter post-processing method is a suitable technique to reproduce accurate estimate of ground-level O3 concentration. With this study we evince that the adjusted O3 concentrations obtained after the post-process of the results from the CALIOPE system are a reliable means for real near time O3 forecasts

Potential significance of photoexcited NO2 on global air quality with the NMMB/BSC chemical transport model

Atmospheric chemists have recently focused on the relevance of the NO2* + H2O → OH + HONO reaction to local air quality. This chemistry has been considered not relevant for the troposphere from known reaction rates until nowadays. New experiments suggested a rate constant of 1.7 × 10−13 cm3 molecule−1 s−1, which is an order of magnitude faster than the previously estimated upper limit of 1.2 × 10−14 cm3 molecule−1 s−1, determined by Crowley and Carl (1997). Using the new global model, NMMB/BSC Chemical Transport Model (NMMB/BSC-CTM), simulations are presented that assess the potential significance of this chemistry on global air quality. Results show that if the NO2* chemistry is considered following the upper limit kinetics recommended by Crowley and Carl (1997), it produces an enhancement of ozone surface concentrations of 4–6 ppbv in rural areas and 6–15 ppbv in urban locations, reaching a maximum enhancement of 30 ppbv in eastern Asia. Moreover, NO2 enhancements are minor (xemissions are present; however, differences are small in most parts of the globe

HERMESv3, a stand-alone multi-scale atmospheric emission modelling framework – Part 1: global and regional module

We present the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System version 3 (HERMESv3), an open source, parallel and stand-alone multi-scale atmospheric emission modelling framework that computes gaseous and aerosol emissions for use in atmospheric chemistry models. HERMESv3 is coded in Python and consists of a global_regional module and a bottom_up module that can be either combined or executed separately. In this contribution (Part 1) we describe the global_regional module, a customizable emission processing system that calculates emissions from different sources, regions and pollutants on a user-specified global or regional grid. The user can flexibly define combinations of existing up-to-date global and regional emission inventories and apply country-specific scaling factors and masks. Each emission inventory is individually processed using user-defined vertical, temporal and speciation profiles that allow obtaining emission outputs compatible with multiple chemical mechanisms (e.g. Carbon-Bond 05). The selection and combination of emission inventories and databases is done through detailed configuration files providing the user with a widely applicable framework for designing, choosing and adjusting the emission modelling experiment without modifying the HERMESv3 source code. The generated emission fields have been successfully tested in different atmospheric chemistry models (i.e. CMAQ, WRF-Chem and NMMB-MONARCH) at multiple spatial and temporal resolutions. In a companion article (Part 2; Guevara et al., 2019) we describe the bottom_up module, which estimates emissions at the source level (e.g. road link) combining state-of-the-art bottom–up methods with local activity and emission factors.</p

Caliope: an operational air quality forecasting system for the Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands and Canary Islands ? first annual evaluation and ongoing developments

International audienceThe Caliope project funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment establishes an air quality forecasting system for Spain to increase the knowledge on transport and dynamics of pollutants in Spain, to assure the accomplishment of legislation and to inform the population about the levels of pollutants, topics in which the European Commission has shown a great concern. The present contribution describes the first quantitative verification study performed so far with two chemistry transport models (CMAQ and CHIMERE) for a reference year (2004) at medium spatial resolution (around 20×20 km for the Iberian Peninsula). Both models perform similarly in the case of ground-level ozone. The mean normalised gross error MNGE remains below 15?20% during summertime, when ozone episodes occur, outlining the good skills of the system concerning the forecasting of air quality in Spain. Furthermore, the ongoing developments of the system towards high resolution modelling (4×4 km for Spain, 12×12 km for Europe, 1 h temporal resolution) and the integration with observations within the Caliope umbrella are described