Evaluating Global Warming Potentials as Historical Temperature Proxies: an application of ACC2 Inverse Calculation

Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are evaluated as proxies of the historical temperature by applying them to convert historical CH4 and N2O emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. Our GWP analysis is based on the historical Earth system evolution obtained from the inverse calculation for the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Cycle, and Climate Model (ACC2). Indices higher than the Kyoto GWPs are required to reproduce the historical temperature. The GWP for N2O, in particular, does not approximate the historical temperature with any time horizon because the GWP definition and calculations assume a background system different from the ACC2 inversion results. In addition, indices have to be progressively updated upon the acquisition of new measurements and/or the change in our understanding on the Earth system processes.global warming potentials

Individual surgeon mortality rates: can outliers be detected? A national utility analysis

Objectives: There is controversy on the proposed benefits of publishing mortality rates for individual surgeons. In some procedures, analysis at the level of an individual surgeon may lack statistical power. The aim was to determine the likelihood that variation in surgeon performance will be detected using published outcome data. Design: A national analysis surgeon-level mortality rates to calculate the level of power for the reported mortality rate across multiple surgical procedures. Setting: The UK from 2010 to 2014. Participants: Surgeons who performed colon cancer resection, oesophagectomy or gastrectomy, elective aortic aneurysm repair, hip replacement, bariatric surgery or thyroidectomy. Outcomes: The likelihood of detecting an individual with a 30-day, 90-day or in-patient mortality rate of up to 5 times the national mean or median (as available). This was represented using a novel heat-map approach. Results: Overall mortality rates for the procedures ranged from 0.07% to 4.5% and mean/median surgeon volume was between 23 and 75 cases. The national median case volume for colorectal (n=55) and upper gastrointestinal (n=23) cancer resections provides around 20% power to detect a mortality rate of 3 times the national median, while, for hip replacement, this is a rate 5 times the national average. At the mortality rates reported for thyroid (0.08%) and bariatric (0.07%) procedures, it is unlikely a surgeon would perform a sufficient number of procedures in his/her entire career to stand a good chance of detecting a mortality rate 5 times the national average. Conclusions: At present, surgeons with increased mortality rates are unlikely to be detected. Performance within an expected mortality rate range cannot be considered reliable evidence of acceptable performance. Alternative approaches should focus on commonly occurring meaningful outcome measures, with infrequent events analysed predominately at the hospital level

Sustaining productivity of tropical red snappers using new monitoring and reference points

OBJECTIVES: 1. Analyse current monitoring and logbook data sets, as well as survey and other information,to establish whether these data provide sufficient power to develop critical indicators of fishery performance. 2. Provide a risk analysis that examines the use of age structure and catch rate information for development of critical indicators, and response rules for those criteria, in the absence of other fishery information. 3. Develop a monitoring program that uses commercial vessels from the fishery to provide independent data

Metrics for Aggregating the Climate Effect of Different Emissions: A Unifying Framework. ESRI WP257, September 2008

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing “equivalences” among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four classes of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show that the Global Warming Potential, used in international law to compare greenhouse gases, is a special case of the Global Damage Potential, assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiactive forcing. We show that the Global Temperature change Potential is a special case of the Global Cost Potential, assuming (1) no induced technological change, and (2) a short-lived capital stock. We also show that the Global Cost Potential is a special case of the Global Damage Potential, assuming (1) zero damages below a threshold and (2) infinite damage after a threshold. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the Global Warming Potential, a simplified cost-benefit concept, even though the UNFCCC frames climate policy as a cost-effectiveness problem and should therefore use the Global Cost Potential or its simplification, the Global Temperature Potential

Mapping community determinants of heat vulnerability.

BACKGROUND: The evidence that heat waves can result in both increased deaths and illness is substantial, and concern over this issue is rising because of climate change. Adverse health impacts from heat waves can be avoided, and epidemiologic studies have identified specific population and community characteristics that mark vulnerability to heat waves. OBJECTIVES: We situated vulnerability to heat in geographic space and identified potential areas for intervention and further research. METHODS: We mapped and analyzed 10 vulnerability factors for heat-related morbidity/mortality in the United States: six demographic characteristics and two household air conditioning variables from the U.S. Census Bureau, vegetation cover from satellite images, and diabetes prevalence from a national survey. We performed a factor analysis of these 10 variables and assigned values of increasing vulnerability for the four resulting factors to each of 39,794 census tracts. We added the four factor scores to obtain a cumulative heat vulnerability index value. RESULTS: Four factors explained > 75% of the total variance in the original 10 vulnerability variables: a) social/environmental vulnerability (combined education/poverty/race/green space), b) social isolation, c) air conditioning prevalence, and d) proportion elderly/diabetes. We found substantial spatial variability of heat vulnerability nationally, with generally higher vulnerability in the Northeast and Pacific Coast and the lowest in the Southeast. In urban areas, inner cities showed the highest vulnerability to heat. CONCLUSIONS: These methods provide a template for making local and regional heat vulnerability maps. After validation using health outcome data, interventions can be targeted at the most vulnerable populations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78516/1/ReidONeill2009_EnvironHealthPerspect.pd

Antecedents and outcomes of consumer environmentally friendly attitudes and behaviour

With the intensification of problems relating to the environment, a growing number of consumers are becoming more ecologically conscious in their preferences and purchases of goods. This paper presents the results of a study conducted among 500 Cypriot consumers, focusing on the factors that shape consumer environmental attitudes and behaviour, as well as on the resulting outcomes. The findings confirmed that both the inward and outward environmental attitudes of a consumer are positively influenced by his/her degree of collectivism, long-term orientation, political involvement, deontology, and law obedience, but have no connection with liberalism. The adoption of an inward environmental attitude was also found to be conducive to green purchasing behaviour that ultimately leads to high product satisfaction. On the other hand, an outward environmental attitude facilitates the adoption of a general environmental behaviour, which is responsible for greater satisfaction with life. The findings of the study have important implications for shaping effective company offerings to consumers in target markets, as well as formulating appropriate policies at the governmental level to enhance environmental sensitivity among citizens

US local action on heat and health: are we prepared for climate change?

OBJECTIVES: Global climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves, hot weather, and temperature variability, which contribute to mortality and illness. Baseline information on local efforts to reduce heat vulnerability, including public advisories; minimizing greenhouse gas emissions; and mitigating urban heat islands, is lacking. METHODS: We designed a survey about local government programs to prevent health problems and reduce heat exposure during heatwaves and administered it to 285 US communities. RESULTS: Of 70 respondents, 26 indicated that excessive heat events are a significant issue for the local government; 30 had established preventive programs. Local government leadership and public health impacts of heat were cited most frequently as extremely important determinants of preventive programs, followed by implementation costs, economic impacts of hot weather, and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. Cool paving materials and vegetated roofs were common heat mitigation strategies. Fact sheets and case studies were desired guidance for protecting communities during hot weather. CONCLUSIONS: New partnerships and financial resources are needed to support more widespread local action to prevent adverse health consequences of climate change and promote environmental sustainability.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78375/1/ONeillJackman2010_IJPH.pd

Study of the B^0 Semileptonic Decay Spectrum at the Upsilon(4S) Resonance

We have made a first measurement of the lepton momentum spectrum in a sample of events enriched in neutral B's through a partial reconstruction of B0 --> D*- l+ nu. This spectrum, measured with 2.38 fb**-1 of data collected at the Upsilon(4S) resonance by the CLEO II detector, is compared directly to the inclusive lepton spectrum from all Upsilon(4S) events in the same data set. These two spectra are consistent with having the same shape above 1.5 GeV/c. From the two spectra and two other CLEO measurements, we obtain the B0 and B+ semileptonic branching fractions, b0 and b+, their ratio, and the production ratio f+-/f00 of B+ and B0 pairs at the Upsilon(4S). We report b+/b0=0.950 (+0.117-0.080) +- 0.091, b0 = (10.78 +- 0.60 +- 0.69)%, and b+ = (10.25 +- 0.57 +- 0.65)%. b+/b0 is equivalent to the ratio of charged to neutral B lifetimes, tau+/tau0.Comment: 14 page, postscript file also available at http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN