Balancing conservation with national development: a socio-economic case study of the alternatives to the Serengeti Road

Developing countries often have rich natural resources but poor infrastructure to capitalize on them, which leads to significant challenges in terms of balancing poverty alleviation with conservation. The underlying premise in development strategies is to increase the socio-economic welfare of the people while simultaneously ensuring environmental sustainability, however these objectives are often in direct conflict. National progress is dependent on developing infrastructure such as effective transportation networks, however roads can be ecologically catastrophic in terms of disrupting habitat connectivity and facilitating illegal activity. How can national development and conservation be balanced? The proposed Serengeti road epitomizes the conflict between poverty alleviation on one hand, and the conservation of a critical ecosystem on the other. We use the Serengeti as an exemplar case-study in which the relative economic and social benefits of a road can be assessed against the ecological impacts. Specifically, we compare three possible transportation routes and ask which route maximizes the socio-economic returns for the people while minimizing the ecological costs. The findings suggest that one route in particular that circumnavigates the Serengeti links the greatest number of small and medium sized entrepreneurial businesses to the largest labour force in the region. Furthermore, this route connects the most children to schools, provisions the greatest access to hospitals, and opens the most fertile crop and livestock production areas, and does not compromise the ecology and tourism revenue of the Serengeti. This route would improve Tanzania’s food security and self-reliance and would facilitate future infrastructure development which would not be possible if the road were to pass through the Serengeti. This case study provides a compelling example of how a detailed spatial analysis can balance the national objectives of poverty alleviation while maintaining ecological integrity

Global susceptibility and response to noncommunicable diseases.

Globalization and human interdependence have created immeasurable value for humanity. These forces, however, also provide channels for health risks to spread throughout the world. Global functions for health, such as international partnerships or research and development, are a rational response to global health risks like pandemics or globalized supply chains. Self-interest compels governments – or donors – to provide global functions even though their benefits are widely shared the world over

The consequences of tobacco tax on household health and fi nances in rich and poor smokers in China: an extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis

Background In China, there are more than 300 million male smokers. Tobacco taxation reduces smoking-related premature deaths and increases government revenues, but has been criticised for disproportionately aff ecting poorer people. We assess the distributional consequences (across diff erent wealth quintiles) of a specifi c excise tax on cigarettes in China in terms of both fi nancial and health outcomes. Methods We use extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles, the health benefi ts (years of life gained), the additional tax revenues raised, the net fi nancial consequences for households, and the fi nancial risk protection provided to households, that would be caused by a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax fully passed onto tobacco consumers. For our modelling analysis, we used plausible values for key parameters, including an average price elasticity of demand for tobacco of –0·38, which is assumed to vary from –0·64 in the poorest quintile to –0·12 in the richest, and we considered only the male population, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of smokers in China. Findings Our modelling analysis showed that a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax would lead to 231 million years of life gained (95% uncertainty range 194–268 million) over 50 years (a third of which would be gained in the lowest income quintile), a gain of US$703 billion ($616–781 billion) of additional tax revenues from the excise tax (14% of which would come from the lowest income quintile, compared with 24% from the highest income quintile). The excise tax would increase overall household expenditures on tobacco by $376 billion ($232–505 billion), but decrease these expenditures by $21 billion (–$83 to $5 billion) in the lowest income quintile, and would reduce expenditures on tobacco-related disease by$24·0 billion ($17·3–26·3 billion, 28 income quintile). Finally, it would provide fi nancial risk protection worth$1·8 billion ($1·2–2·3 billion), mainly concentrated (74%) in the lowest income quintile. Interpretation Increased tobacco taxation can be a pro-poor policy instrument that brings substantial health and fi nancial benefi ts to households in China

Health gains and fi nancial risk protection aff orded by public fi nancing of selected interventions in Ethiopia: an extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis

Background The way in which a government chooses to fi nance a health intervention can aff ect the uptake of health interventions and consequently the extent of health gains. In addition to health gains, some policies such as public fi nance can insure against catastrophic health expenditures. We aimed to evaluate the health and fi nancial risk protection benefi ts of selected interventions that could be publicly fi nanced by the government of Ethiopia. Methods We used extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis to assess the health gains (deaths averted) and fi nancial risk protection aff orded (cases of poverty averted) by a bundle of nine (among many other) interventions that the Government of Ethiopia aims to make universally available. These nine interventions were measles vaccination, rotavirus vaccination, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination, diarrhoea treatment, malaria treatment, pneumonia treatment, caesarean section surgery, hypertension treatment, and tuberculosis treatment. Findings Our analysis shows that, per dollar spent by the Ethiopian Government, the interventions that avert the most deaths are measles vaccination (367 deaths averted per $100 000 spent), pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (170 deaths averted per$100 000 spent), and caesarean section surgery (141 deaths averted per $100 000 spent). The interventions that avert the most cases of poverty are caesarean section surgery (98 cases averted per$100 000 spent), tuberculosis treatment (96 cases averted per $100 000 spent), and hypertension treatment (84 cases averted per$100 000 spent). Interpretation Our approach incorporates fi nancial risk protection into the economic evaluation of health interventions and therefore provides information about the effi ciency of attainment of both major objectives of a health system: improved health and fi nancial risk protection. One intervention might rank higher on one or both metrics than another, which shows how intervention choice—the selection of a pathway to universal health coverage—might involve weighing up of sometimes competing objectives. This understanding can help policy makers to select interventions to target specifi c policy goals (ie, improved health or fi nancial risk protection). It is especially relevant for the design and sequencing of universal health coverage to meet the needs of poor populations

Debiasing the NEOWISE Cryogenic Mission Comet Populations

We use NEOWISE data from the four-band and three-band cryogenic phases of the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer mission to constrain size distributions of the comet populations and debias measurements of the short- and long-period comet (LPC) populations. We find that the fit to the debiased LPC population yields a cumulative size−frequency distribution (SFD) power-law slope (β) of −1.0 ± 0.1, while the debiased Jupiter-family comet (JFC) SFD has a steeper slope with β = −2.3 ± 0.2. The JFCs in our debiased sample yielded a mean nucleus size of 1.3 km in diameter, while the LPCs' mean size is roughly twice as large, 2.1 km, yielding mean size ratios (〈D_(LPC)〉/〈D_(JFC)〉) that differ by a factor of 1.6. Over the course of the 8 months of the survey, our results indicate that the number of LPCs passing within 1.5 au are a factor of several higher than previous estimates, while JFCs are within the previous range of estimates of a few thousand down to sizes near 1.3 km in diameter. Finally, we also observe evidence for structure in the orbital distribution of LPCs, with an overdensity of comets clustered near 110° inclination and perihelion near 2.9 au that is not attributable to observational bias

The Palomar Transient Factory Orion Project: Eclipsing Binaries and Young Stellar Objects

The Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) Orion project is an experiment within the broader PTF survey, a systematic automated exploration of the sky for optical transients. Taking advantage of the wide field of view available using the PTF camera at the Palomar 48" telescope, 40 nights were dedicated in December 2009-January 2010 to perform continuous high-cadence differential photometry on a single field containing the young (7-10Myr) 25 Ori association. The primary motivation for the project is to search for planets around young stars in this region. The unique data set also provides for much ancillary science. In this first paper we describe the survey and data reduction pipeline, and present initial results from an inspection of the most clearly varying stars relating to two of the ancillary science objectives: detection of eclipsing binaries and young stellar objects. We find 82 new eclipsing binary systems, 9 of which we are candidate 25 Ori- or Orion OB1a-association members. Of these, 2 are potential young W UMa type systems. We report on the possible low-mass (M-dwarf primary) eclipsing systems in the sample, which include 6 of the candidate young systems. 45 of the binary systems are close (mainly contact) systems; one shows an orbital period among the shortest known for W UMa binaries, at 0.2156509 \pm 0.0000071d, with flat-bottomed primary eclipses, and a derived distance consistent with membership in the general Orion association. One of the candidate young systems presents an unusual light curve, perhaps representing a semi-detached binary system with an inflated low-mass primary or a star with a warped disk, and may represent an additional young Orion member. Finally, we identify 14 probable new classical T-Tauri stars in our data, along with one previously known (CVSO 35) and one previously reported as a candidate weak-line T-Tauri star (SDSS J052700.12+010136.8).Comment: 66 pages, 27 figures, accepted to Astronomical Journal. Minor typographical corrections and update to author affiliation

The NEOWISE-Discovered Comet Population and the CO+CO_2 production rates

The 163 comets observed during the WISE/NEOWISE prime mission represent the largest infrared survey to date of comets, providing constraints on dust, nucleus size, and CO + CO_2 production. We present detailed analyses of the WISE/NEOWISE comet discoveries, and discuss observations of the active comets showing 4.6 μm band excess. We find a possible relation between dust and CO + CO_2 production, as well as possible differences in the sizes of long and short period comet nuclei

Building the health-economic case for scaling up the WHO-HEARTS hypertension control package in low- and middle-income countries

Generally, hypertension control programs are cost-effective, including in low- and middle-income countries, but country governments and civil society are not likely to support hypertension control programs unless value is demonstrated in terms of public health benefits, budget impact, and value-for-investment for the individual country context. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) established a standard, simplified Global HEARTS approach to hypertension control, including preferred antihypertensive medicines and blood pressure measurement devices. The objective of this study is to report on health economic studies of HEARTS hypertension control package cost (especially medication costs), cost-effectiveness, and budget impact and describe mathematical models designed to translate hypertension control program data into the optimal approach to hypertension care service delivery and financing, especially in lowand middle-income countries. Early results suggest that HEARTS hypertension control interventions are either cost-saving or cost-effective, that the HEARTS package is affordable at between US$18-44 per person treated per year, and that antihypertensive medicines could be priced low enough to reach a global standard of an average <US$ 5 per patient per year in the public sector. This health economic evidence will make a compelling case for government ownership and financial support for national scale hypertension control programs