Seeding Change by Visioning Good Anthropocenes

Although we are surrounded by dystopian stories about the age of the Anthropocene, the future does not have to be bleak. Seeds of alternative good futures occur in many places around the world and we can use these to help us think more creatively about pathways to more desirable futures in the Anthropocene. This paper describes the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SOGA) project that aims to identify where elements of Good Anthropocenes (‘seeds’) currently exist on the planet and how they can be used to help us envision pathways towards new, positive futures for the Earth and humanity. Each of the seeds is a potential solution that could help to shift us onto a more sustainable trajectory that will ensure both planetary and human wellbeing. The project has developed and combined novel visioning tools that engage a broad set of stakeholders in identifying potentially game-changing seed initiatives, and exploring how these could develop and combine to create radically alternative futures. This new scenario approach has been used in intergovernmental processes such as the UN Environment’s Global Environment Outlook (GEO) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). By tapping into creativity and ingenuity, the SOGA scenario process provides a set of methodological tools through which we can think in new ways about how to navigate towards more desirable futures, starting with the pockets of these futures that are already with us in the present

Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene

The scale, rate, and intensity of humans’ environmental impact has engendered broad discussion about how to find plausible pathways of development that hold the most promise for fostering a better future in the Anthropocene. However, the dominance of dystopian visions of irreversible environmental degradation and societal collapse, along with overly optimistic utopias and business‐as‐usual scenarios that lack insight and innovation, frustrate progress. Here, we present a novel approach to thinking about the future that builds on experiences drawn from a diversity of practices, worldviews, values, and regions that could accelerate the adoption of pathways to transformative change (change that goes beyond incremental improvements). Using an analysis of 100 initiatives, or “seeds of a good Anthropocene”, we find that emphasizing hopeful elements of existing practice offers the opportunity to: (1) understand the values and features that constitute a good Anthropocene, (2) determine the processes that lead to the emergence and growth of initiatives that fundamentally change human–environmental relationships, and (3) generate creative, bottom‐up scenarios that feature well‐articulated pathways toward a more positive future

Multiple Lines of Evidence Risk Assessment of Terrestrial Passerines Exposed to PCDFs and PCDDs in the Tittabawassee River Floodplain, Midland, Michigan, USA

A site-specific multiple lines of evidence risk assessment was conducted for house wrens (Troglodytes aedon) and eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis) along the Tittabawassee River downstream of Midland, Michigan, where concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) in flood-plain soils and sediments are greater compared to upstream areas and some of the greatest anywhere in the world. Lines of evidence supporting the population-level assessment endpoints included site-specific dietary- and tissue-based exposure assessments and population productivity measurements during breeding seasons 2005–2007. While a hazard assessment based on site-specific diets suggested that populations residing in the downstream floodplain had the potential to be affected, concentrations in eggs compared to appropriate toxicity reference values (TRVs) did not predict a potential for population-level effects. There were no significant effects on reproductive success of either species. The most probable cause of the apparent difference between the dietary- and tissue-based exposure assessments was that the dietary-based TRVs were overly conservative based on intraperitoneal injections in the ring-necked pheasant. Agreement between the risk assessment based on concentrations of PCDFs and PCDDs in eggs and reproductive performance in both species supports the conclusion of a small potential for population-level effects at this site

Context and culture associated with alcohol use amongst youth in major urban cities: A cross-country population based survey

Background: Alcohol consumption patterns are dependent upon culture and context. The aim of this study was to interview people aged 18–34 year old living in four cities in different regions of the world to explore differences in a range of alcohol measures to assist in determining culturally appropriate alcohol initiatives for this age group. Method: Multistage random sampling was consistent across the four cities (Ilorin (Nigeria), Wuhan (China), Montevideo (Uruguay) and Moscow (Russia)). The questionnaire was forward and back translated into relevant languages and face-to-face interviewing undertaken. The data were weighted to the population of each city. Uni-variable analysis (ever consumed, first time consumed, age when drunk for first time, number of days consumed, type consumed) and logistic regression modeling were undertaken. The final model for each city was adjusted for age, sex, marital status, highest education and employment status. In total 6235 interviews were undertaken (1391 in Ilorin, 1600 in Montevideo, 1604 in Moscow and 1640 in Wuhan). Results: Alcohol was consumed by 96.4% in Montevideo, 86.1% in Moscow, 53.4% in Wuhan and 33.3% in Ilorin. There was very little difference by gender except Ilorin males were more likely to consume alcohol than females. Alcohol was consumed on more days for Ilorin males; Wuhan females consumed alcohol on the least number of days; Ilorin had the most abstainers; Montevideo and Moscow the highest proportion of light drinkers; Ilorin and Montevideo the highest proportion of heavy drinkers. Differences by type of alcohol were also apparent. The final logistic regression model provided different models including higher alcohol consumption rates for males, 25–34 years of age, divorced/separated marital status and employed part time for Ilorin respondents; males and higher educated for Montevideo; males, 25 to 29 years of age and higher educated for Moscow; and 25–29 years of age, non-married and vocationally trained for those in Wuhan. Conclusion: Alcohol consumption in these four cities does not increase with age as found in most high income countries. The alcohol consumption patterns during this stage of the life cycle are important to assess so that high level, as well as country-specific, planning and interventions can be implemented

Stable isotope food-web analysis and mercury biomagnification in polar bears ( Ursus maritimus )

Mercury (Hg) biomagnification occurs in many ecosystems, resulting in a greater potential for toxicological effects in higher-level trophic feeders. However, Hg transport pathways through different food-web channels are not well known, particularly in high-latitude systems affected by the atmospheric Hg deposition associated with snow and ice. Here, we report on stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, and Hg concentrations, determined for 26, late 19th and early 20th century, polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) hair specimens, collected from catalogued museum collections. These data elucidate relationships between the high-latitude marine food-web structure and Hg concentrations in polar bears. The carbon isotope compositions of polar bear hairs suggest that polar bears derive nutrition from coupled food-web channels, based in pelagic and sympagic primary producers, whereas the nitrogen isotope compositions indicate that polar bears occupy > fourth-level trophic positions. Our results show a positive correlation between polar bear hair Hg concentrations and δ 15 N. Interpretation of the stable isotope data in combination with Hg concentrations tentatively suggests that polar bears participating in predominantly pelagic food webs exhibit higher mercury concentrations than polar bears participating in predominantly sympagic food webs.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73930/1/j.1751-8369.2009.00114.x.pd

Targeting young drinkers online: the effectiveness of a web-based brief alcohol intervention in reducing heavy drinking among college students: study protocol of a two-arm parallel group randomized controlled trial

Contains fulltext : 99751.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)Background: The prevalence of heavy drinking among college students and its associated health related consequences highlights an urgent need for alcohol prevention programs targeting 18 to 24 year olds. Nevertheless, current alcohol prevention programs in the Netherlands pay surprisingly little attention to the drinking patterns of this specific age group. The study described in this protocol will test the effectiveness of a web-based brief alcohol intervention that is aimed at reducing alcohol use among heavy drinking college students aged 18 to 24 years old. Methods/Design: The effectiveness of the What Do You Drink web-based brief alcohol intervention will be tested among 908 heavy drinking college students in a two-arm parallel group randomized controlled trial. Participants will be allocated at random to either the experimental (N = 454: web-based brief alcohol intervention) or control condition (N = 454: no intervention). The primary outcome measure will be the percentage of participants who drink within the normative limits of the Dutch National Health Council for low-risk drinking. These limits specify that, for heavy alcohol use, the mean consumption cannot exceed 14 or 21 glasses of standard alcohol units per week for females and males, respectively, while for binge drinking, the consumption cannot exceed five or more glasses of standard alcohol units on one drinking occasion at least once per week within one month and six months after the intervention. Reductions in mean weekly alcohol consumption and frequency of binge drinking are also primary outcome measures. Weekly Ecological Momentary Assessment will measure alcohol-related cognitions, that is, attitudes, self-efficacy, subjective norms and alcohol expectancies, which will be included as the secondary outcome measures. Discussion: This study protocol describes the two-arm parallel group randomized controlled trial developed to evaluate the effectiveness of a web-based brief alcohol intervention. We expect a reduction of mean weekly alcohol consumption and frequency of binge drinking in the experimental condition compared to the control condition as a direct result of the intervention. If the website is effective, it will be implemented in alcohol prevention initiatives, which will facilitate the implementation of the protocol.8 p

Present state and future perspectives of using pluripotent stem cells in toxicology research

The use of novel drugs and chemicals requires reliable data on their potential toxic effects on humans. Current test systems are mainly based on animals or in vitro–cultured animal-derived cells and do not or not sufficiently mirror the situation in humans. Therefore, in vitro models based on human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) have become an attractive alternative. The article summarizes the characteristics of pluripotent stem cells, including embryonic carcinoma and embryonic germ cells, and discusses the potential of pluripotent stem cells for safety pharmacology and toxicology. Special attention is directed to the potential application of embryonic stem cells (ESCs) and induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) for the assessment of developmental toxicology as well as cardio- and hepatotoxicology. With respect to embryotoxicology, recent achievements of the embryonic stem cell test (EST) are described and current limitations as well as prospects of embryotoxicity studies using pluripotent stem cells are discussed. Furthermore, recent efforts to establish hPSC-based cell models for testing cardio- and hepatotoxicity are presented. In this context, methods for differentiation and selection of cardiac and hepatic cells from hPSCs are summarized, requirements and implications with respect to the use of these cells in safety pharmacology and toxicology are presented, and future challenges and perspectives of using hPSCs are discussed

Coral reefs as novel ecosystems:embracing new futures

The composition and functions of many ecosystems are changing, giving rise to the concept of novel ecosystems. Although some coral reefs are becoming non-coral systems, others are becoming novel coral-dominated ecosystems driven principally by differential species responses to climate change and other drivers, but also due to species range shifts at higher latitudes, and in some cases introduced species. Returning many coral reefs to pristine baselines is unrealistic, whereas embracing novel futures enables more pragmatic approaches to maintaining or re-building the dominance of corals. Coral reefs are changing in unprecedented ways, providing the impetus to improve our understanding of reef compositions that may dominate in the future, explore new management approaches, assess changes in ecosystem services, and investigate how human societies can adapt and respond to novel futures