Spatial variation in water supply and demand across river basins of India

Water supply / Water demand / River basins / Catchment areas / Water availability / Water scarcity / Estimation / Irrigation water / Domestic water / Population growth / Urbanization / Groundwater extraction / Crop production / Policy / Water transfer / India

Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non- point source nutrient pollution.Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non- point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete.Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020- 2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change (n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation (n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment- hydrology, and agricultural- practice- simulation models.In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade- offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change.Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy- makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land- management change.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156436/2/fwb13515.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156436/1/fwb13515_am.pd

Evaluation of historical and future simulations of precipitation and temperature in central Africa from CMIP5 climate models

Global and regional climate change assessments rely heavily on the general circulation model (GCM) outputs such as provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Here we evaluate the ability of 25 CMIP5 GCMs to simulate historical precipitation and temperature over central Africa and assess their future projections in the context of historical performance and intermodel and future emission scenario uncertainties. We then apply a statistical bias correction technique to the monthly climate fields and develop monthly downscaled fields for the period of 1948–2099. The bias-corrected and downscaled data set is constructed by combining a suite of global observation and reanalysis-based data sets, with the monthly GCM outputs for the 20th century, and 21st century projections for the medium mitigation (representative concentration pathway (RCP)45) and high emission (RCP85) scenarios. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate temperature better than precipitation, but substantial spatial heterogeneity exists. Many models show limited skill in simulating the seasonality, spatial patterns, and magnitude of precipitation. Temperature projections by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) show a robust warming between 2 and 4°C across models, whereas precipitation projections vary across models in the sign and magnitude of change (9% to 27%). Projected increase in precipitation for a subset of models (single model ensemble (SME)) identified based on performance metrics and causal mechanisms are slightly higher compared to the full multimodel ensemble (MME) mean; however, temperature projections are similar between the two ensemble means. For the near-term (2021–2050), neither the historical performance nor choice of models is related to the precipitation projections, indicating that natural variability dominated any signal. With fewer models, the “blind” MME approach will have larger uncertainties in future precipitation projections compared to projections by the SME models. We propose the latter a better approach in regions that lack quality climate observations. Our analyses also show that the choice of model and emission scenario dominate the uncertainty in precipitation projections, whereas the emission scenario dominates the temperature projections. Although our analyses are done for central Africa, the final Bias-Corrected Spatially Downscaled data set is available for global land areas. The framework for climate change assessment and the data will be useful for a variety of climate assessment, impact, and adaptation studies

Spatial variation in water supply and demand across river basins of India

India is a large country with regional differences in per-capita water supply and demand. Attempts to describe the water situation in India at a national level are often misleading due to the tremendous diversity in the water situation across the country. This Report analyzes the spatial variation of water supply and demand across river basins in India. The study identifies basins that are water-scarce because of inadequate water availability to meet the effective demand. It also identifies issues that are important for estimating the future water demand and for the formation of policy for future water-resources development and management

Spatial variation in water supply and demand across river basins of India

India is a large country with regional differences in per-capita water supply and demand. Attempts to describe the water situation in India at a national level are often misleading due to the tremendous diversity in the water situation across the country. This Report analyzes the spatial variation of water supply and demand across river basins in India. The study identifies basins that are water-scarce because of inadequate water availability to meet the effective demand. It also identifies issues that are important for estimating the future water demand and for the formation of policy for future water-resources development and management

Social contract and beyond:Sociability, reciprocity and tax ethics

Paying taxes is a moral obligation owed by members of a community to their community. This obligation is determined by the legislature. Subsequently the tax authorities collect the amount of taxes citizens are due. Paying taxes might thus seem to become an exclusively legal affair - a legal obligation towards the state replacing a moral obligation towards society. What to think of this? In this chapter we delve into political and legal theory to find an answer to this question. Social contract theorists and their critics searched principles for a viable civil polity. Hobbes, Spinoza and Hume focused on political and legal authority and obedience grounding their theories in various pictures of human motivations and human sociability. These different starting points resulted in diverging conceptualisations of the relationships between ruler and subjects and between subjects and fellow subjects in terms of reciprocity. We will show the consequences thereof for the relationship between tax law and morality. Different conceptions of the reciprocal relationships involved may invite behaviour varying from minimalist compliance to a more liberal compliance with tax law. Taxpayers facing absolute sovereignty may thus adopt a legalistic attitude and be willing to exploit the letter of the law or loopholes rather than stay within the spirit of applicable tax legislation

Evaluation of a quality improvement intervention to reduce anastomotic leak following right colectomy (EAGLE): pragmatic, batched stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial in 64 countries

Background Anastomotic leak affects 8 per cent of patients after right colectomy with a 10-fold increased risk of postoperative death. The EAGLE study aimed to develop and test whether an international, standardized quality improvement intervention could reduce anastomotic leaks. Methods The internationally intended protocol, iteratively co-developed by a multistage Delphi process, comprised an online educational module introducing risk stratification, an intraoperative checklist, and harmonized surgical techniques. Clusters (hospital teams) were randomized to one of three arms with varied sequences of intervention/data collection by a derived stepped-wedge batch design (at least 18 hospital teams per batch). Patients were blinded to the study allocation. Low- and middle-income country enrolment was encouraged. The primary outcome (assessed by intention to treat) was anastomotic leak rate, and subgroup analyses by module completion (at least 80 per cent of surgeons, high engagement; less than 50 per cent, low engagement) were preplanned. Results A total 355 hospital teams registered, with 332 from 64 countries (39.2 per cent low and middle income) included in the final analysis. The online modules were completed by half of the surgeons (2143 of 4411). The primary analysis included 3039 of the 3268 patients recruited (206 patients had no anastomosis and 23 were lost to follow-up), with anastomotic leaks arising before and after the intervention in 10.1 and 9.6 per cent respectively (adjusted OR 0.87, 95 per cent c.i. 0.59 to 1.30; P = 0.498). The proportion of surgeons completing the educational modules was an influence: the leak rate decreased from 12.2 per cent (61 of 500) before intervention to 5.1 per cent (24 of 473) after intervention in high-engagement centres (adjusted OR 0.36, 0.20 to 0.64; P < 0.001), but this was not observed in low-engagement hospitals (8.3 per cent (59 of 714) and 13.8 per cent (61 of 443) respectively; adjusted OR 2.09, 1.31 to 3.31). Conclusion Completion of globally available digital training by engaged teams can alter anastomotic leak rates. Registration number: NCT04270721 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)