Evaluation of harmful algal bloom outreach activities

This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the link in this record.With an apparent increase of harmful algal blooms (HABs) worldwide, healthcare providers, public health personnel and coastal managers are struggling to provide scientifically-based appropriately-targeted HAB outreach and education. Since 1998, the Florida Poison Information Center-Miami, with its 24 hour/365 day/year free Aquatic Toxins Hotline (1-888-232-8635) available in several languages, has received over 25,000 HAB-related calls. As part of HAB surveillance, all possible cases of HAB-related illness among callers are reported to the Florida Health Department. This pilot study evaluated an automated call processing menu system that allows callers to access bilingual HAB information, and to speak directly with a trained Poison Information Specialist. The majority (68%) of callers reported satisfaction with the information, and many provided specific suggestions for improvement. This pilot study, the first known evaluation of use and satisfaction with HAB educational outreach materials, demonstrated that the automated system provided useful HAB-related information for the majority of callers, and decreased the routine informational call workload for the Poison Information Specialists, allowing them to focus on callers needing immediate assistance and their healthcare providers. These results will lead to improvement of this valuable HAB outreach, education and surveillance tool. Formal evaluation is recommended for future HAB outreach and educational materials.The funding for this study was provided by the Florida Department of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Florida Harmful Algal Bloom Taskforce, as well as the National Science Foundation and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Oceans and Human Health Center at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School (NSF 0CE0432368; NIEHS 1 P50 ES12736), the former National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Marine and Freshwater Biomedical Sciences Center at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School (NIEHS P30ES05705), and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Red Tide POI (P01 ES 10594)

Experiences of using an interactive audience response system in lectures

BACKGROUND: Lectures are good for presenting information and providing explanations, but because they lack active participation they have been neglected. METHODS: Students' experiences were evaluated after exposing them to the use of voting during lectures in their paediatrics course. Questions were delivered to the students taking paediatrics course. Thirty-six students out of the total of 40 (90%) attended the opening lecture, at which the first survey concerning previous experiences of lectures was performed. Thirty-nine students (98%) answered the second series of questions at the end of the paediatrics course. RESULTS: Most of the students felt that voting improved their activity during lectures, enhanced their learning, and that it was easier to make questions during lectures than earlier. CONCLUSIONS: The students gained new, exciting insights much more often during the paediatrics course than before. We as teachers found that voting during lectures could easily overcome some of the obstacles of good lecturing

The Lick AGN Monitoring Project 2011: Spectroscopic Campaign and Emission-Line Light Curves

In the Spring of 2011 we carried out a 2.5 month reverberation mapping campaign using the 3 m Shane telescope at Lick Observatory, monitoring 15 low-redshift Seyfert 1 galaxies. This paper describes the observations, reductions and measurements, and data products from the spectroscopic campaign. The reduced spectra were fitted with a multicomponent model in order to isolate the contributions of various continuum and emission-line components. We present light curves of broad emission lines and the AGN continuum, and measurements of the broad H-beta line widths in mean and root-mean square (rms) spectra. For the most highly variable AGNs we also measured broad H-beta line widths and velocity centroids from the nightly spectra. In four AGNs exhibiting the highest variability amplitudes, we detect anticorrelations between broad H-beta width and luminosity, demonstrating that the broad-line region "breathes" on short timescales of days to weeks in response to continuum variations. We also find that broad H-beta velocity centroids can undergo substantial changes in response to continuum variations; in NGC 4593 the broad H-beta velocity shifted by ~250 km/s over a one-month duration. This reverberation-induced velocity shift effect is likely to contribute a significant source of confusion noise to binary black hole searches that use multi-epoch quasar spectroscopy to detect binary orbital motion. We also present results from simulations that examine biases that can occur in measurement of broad-line widths from rms spectra due to the contributions of continuum variations and photon-counting noise.Comment: 33 pages, 28 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ Supplement Serie

Quadruple-peaked spectral line profiles as a tool to constrain gravitational potential of shell galaxies

Stellar shells observed in many giant elliptical and lenticular as well as a few spiral and dwarf galaxies, presumably result from galaxy mergers. Line-of-sight velocity distributions of the shells could, in principle, if measured with a sufficiently high S/N, constitute one of methods to constrain the gravitational potential of the host galaxy. Merrifield & Kuijken (1998) predicted a double-peaked line profile for stationary shells resulting from a nearly radial minor merger. In this paper, we aim at extending their analysis to a more realistic case of expanding shells, inherent to the merging process, whereas we assume the same type of merger and the same orbital geometry. We use analytical approach as well as test particle simulations to predict the line-of-sight velocity profile across the shell structure. Simulated line profiles are convolved with spectral PSFs to estimate the peak detectability. The resulting line-of-sight velocity distributions are more complex than previously predicted due to non-zero phase velocity of the shells. In principle, each of the Merrifield & Kuijken (1998) peaks splits into two, giving a quadruple-peaked line profile, which allows more precise determination of the potential of the host galaxy and, moreover, contains additional information. We find simple analytical expressions that connect the positions of the four peaks of the line profile and the mass distribution of the galaxy, namely the circular velocity at the given shell radius and the propagation velocity of the shell. The analytical expressions were applied to a test-particle simulation of a radial minor merger and the potential of the simulated host galaxy was successfully recovered. The shell kinematics can thus become an independent tool to determine the content and distribution of the dark matter in shell galaxies, up to ~100 kpc from the center of the host galaxy.Comment: 15 pages, 16 figures | v2: accepted for publication in A&A, minor language correction

The Lick AGN Monitoring Project 2011: Reverberation Mapping of Markarian 50

The Lick AGN Monitoring Project 2011 observing campaign was carried out over the course of 11 weeks in Spring 2011. Here we present the first results from this program, a measurement of the broad-line reverberation lag in the Seyfert 1 galaxy Mrk 50. Combining our data with supplemental observations obtained prior to the start of the main observing campaign, our dataset covers a total duration of 4.5 months. During this time, Mrk 50 was highly variable, exhibiting a maximum variability amplitude of a factor of 4 in the U-band continuum and a factor of 2 in the H-beta line. Using standard cross-correlation techniques, we find that H-beta and H-gamma lag the V-band continuum by tau_cen = 10.64(-0.93,+0.82) and 8.43(-1.28,+1.30) days, respectively, while the lag of He II 4686 is unresolved. The H-beta line exhibits a symmetric velocity-resolved reverberation signature with shorter lags in the high-velocity wings than in the line core, consistent with an origin in a broad-line region dominated by orbital motion rather than infall or outflow. Assuming a virial normalization factor of f=5.25, the virial estimate of the black hole mass is (3.2+-0.5)*10^7 solar masses. These observations demonstrate that Mrk 50 is among the most promising nearby active galaxies for detailed investigations of broad-line region structure and dynamics.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters. 6 pages, 4 figure

Nonsteroidal antiâ inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and paracetamol do not affect 6â month moodâ stabilizing treatment outcome among 482 patients with bipolar disorder

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136478/1/da22601_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136478/2/da22601.pd

Loss of Biological Diversity: A Global Crisis Requiring International Solutions: A Report to the National Science Board

Executive Summary Biological diversity refers to the variety and variability among living organisms and the ecological complexes in which they occur. Diversity can be defined as the number of different items and their relative frequency. For biological diversity, these items are organized at many levels, ranging from complete ecosystems to the chemical structures that are the molecular basis of heredity. Thus, the term encompasses different ecosystems, species, genes, and their relative abundance (OTA, 1987). There is an ongoing, unprecedented loss of the variety as well as absolute numbers of organisms-from the smallest microorganism to the largest and most spectacular of mammals. Loss of tropical moist forests, which contain over half the total species of organisms, has been well documented by scientists and is now widely reported in the media. Many other ecosystems are also threatened; as human populations and their support systems expand, natural ecosystems at all latitudes are altered or converted. At its meeting on October 15, 1987, the National Science Board concluded that the world\u27s decreasing biological diversity is a critical scientific issue requiring immediate attention. The National Science Board\u27s Committee on International Science was asked to study the scientific and international aspects of the decline of biological diversity and to recommend a course of action. This report describes what the National Science Foundation (NSF) can do to influence the U.S. science and education base, articulates where international scientific cooperation is needed, and suggests roles for other agencies and organizations (both national and international) which have scientific, educational, and management responsibilities. The current disappearance of biota has several causes: the destruction or degradation of entire ecosystems; the accelerating loss of individual species from communities or ecosystems as a result of human disturb;mce; and the loss of genetically distinct parts of populations due to human-induced selective pressures. Although not all parts of the planet are equally affected, the problem is global, and human activities are the primary cause. The loss of biological diversity is important because human existence depends on the biological resources of 1 the earth. Human prosperity is based very largely on the ability to utilize biological diversity: to take advantage of the properties of plants, animals, fungi, and microorganisms for food, clothing, medicine, and shelter. Scientific knowledge about the earth\u27s biological diversity has huge gaps. This lack of information hampers society\u27s ability either to estimate the magnitude of the problem or to prevent further losses. It is impossible to identify all the biological resources at risk, since there is no complete inventory of all the life forms on earth. Approximately 1.4 million species have been given scientific names, but estimates of actual numbers range from 5 million to 80 million species. Although knowledge of some taxa is extensive, the vast majority of groups are largely unknown. The current wave of extinction is destroying both known biotic resources and those still undiscovered. As is proving to be the case with most environmental problems, neither the loss of biological diversity nor its solution is the exclusive province of any one nation. International cooperation is necessary to develop both scientific knowledge and successful mitigation and management strategies. The root causes of the problem include sociological and economic processes which operate on an global scale; a thorough understanding will require investigation and elucidation of both biological and non-biological components. There are several reasons for increasing National Science Foundation (NSF) involvement in biodiversity studies: the economic and social importance of biodiversity (and the risk of opportunity lost due to accelerating extinction); the contributions such leadership can make toward to conservation of biological diversity; the important role of such studies in the international growth of science, especially in tropical countries; the potential impact of such studies on the future course of biology as a whole; and enhancing public awareness of the issues. NSF should assume a scientific leadership position with respect to agencies in the U.S. and throughout the world. By insisting on the central importance of biodiversity, the NSF could encourage collaborative support for the actions recommended below. 1. The Committee believes that the role of the NSF is clear-NSF should, as a matter of National Science Board Policy, provide leadership to undertake the inventory of the world\u27s biodiversity. 2. The scientific basis for conservation biology, restoration ecology, and environmental management must be strengthened. 3. Educational and public awareness programs related to biodiversity need increased support. 4. The economic and social aspects of the biodiversity crisis need additional study. 5. Enhance support for developing country scientists and institutions for biodiversity research and conservation

The Lick AGN Monitoring Project 2011: Dynamical Modeling of the Broad Line Region in Mrk 50

We present dynamical modeling of the broad line region (BLR) in the Seyfert 1 galaxy Mrk 50 using reverberation mapping data taken as part of the Lick AGN Monitoring Project (LAMP) 2011. We model the reverberation mapping data directly, constraining the geometry and kinematics of the BLR, as well as deriving a black hole mass estimate that does not depend on a normalizing factor or virial coefficient. We find that the geometry of the BLR in Mrk 50 is a nearly face-on thick disk, with a mean radius of 9.6(+1.2,-0.9) light days, a width of the BLR of 6.9(+1.2,-1.1) light days, and a disk opening angle of 25\pm10 degrees above the plane. We also constrain the inclination angle to be 9(+7,-5) degrees, close to face-on. Finally, the black hole mass of Mrk 50 is inferred to be log10(M(BH)/Msun) = 7.57(+0.44,-0.27). By comparison to the virial black hole mass estimate from traditional reverberation mapping analysis, we find the normalizing constant (virial coefficient) to be log10(f) = 0.78(+0.44,-0.27), consistent with the commonly adopted mean value of 0.74 based on aligning the M(BH)-{\sigma}* relation for AGN and quiescent galaxies. While our dynamical model includes the possibility of a net inflow or outflow in the BLR, we cannot distinguish between these two scenarios.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 8 pages, 6 figure

Gaia Gral: Gaia Dr2 Gravitational Lens Systems. Vi. Spectroscopic Confirmation And Modeling Of Quadruply Imaged Lensed Quasars

Combining the exquisite angular resolution of Gaia with optical light curves and WISE photometry, the Gaia Gravitational Lenses group (GraL) uses machine-learning techniques to identify candidate strongly lensed quasars, and has confirmed over two dozen new strongly lensed quasars from the Gaia Data Release 2. This paper reports on the 12 quadruply imaged quasars identified by this effort to date, which is a similar to 20% increase in the total number of confirmed quadruply imaged quasars. We discuss the candidate selection, spectroscopic follow-up, and lens modeling. We also report our spectroscopic failures as an aid for future investigations

Practical application of cure mixture model for long-term censored survivor data from a withdrawal clinical trial of patients with major depressive disorder

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Survival analysis methods such as the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression (Cox regression) are commonly used to analyze data from randomized withdrawal studies in patients with major depressive disorder. However, unfortunately, such common methods may be inappropriate when a long-term censored relapse-free time appears in data as the methods assume that if complete follow-up were possible for all individuals, each would eventually experience the event of interest.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this paper, to analyse data including such a long-term censored relapse-free time, we discuss a semi-parametric cure regression (Cox cure regression), which combines a logistic formulation for the probability of occurrence of an event with a Cox proportional hazards specification for the time of occurrence of the event. In specifying the treatment's effect on disease-free survival, we consider the fraction of long-term survivors and the risks associated with a relapse of the disease. In addition, we develop a tree-based method for the time to event data to identify groups of patients with differing prognoses (cure survival CART). Although analysis methods typically adapt the log-rank statistic for recursive partitioning procedures, the method applied here used a likelihood ratio (LR) test statistic from a fitting of cure survival regression assuming exponential and Weibull distributions for the latency time of relapse.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The method is illustrated using data from a sertraline randomized withdrawal study in patients with major depressive disorder.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We concluded that Cox cure regression reveals facts on who may be cured, and how the treatment and other factors effect on the cured incidence and on the relapse time of uncured patients, and that cure survival CART output provides easily understandable and interpretable information, useful both in identifying groups of patients with differing prognoses and in utilizing Cox cure regression models leading to meaningful interpretations.</p