Dark nudges in gambling

‘Nudge’ has come into common usage in behavioral science, the intersection of psychology and economics, for situations where a ‘choice architect’ aligns a system with consumers’ best long - term interests (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008). A cafeteria designer might ‘nudge’ her customers by placing the salad bar centrally, while relegating unhealthier foods to a corner. In this editorial I argue that, in gambling, nudging works differently. Gambling’s ‘dark nudges’ are designed to exploit gamblers’ biases, as economic rationality on the part of gambling firms predicts. Gambling’s dark nudges reveal the contradictions of industry - led responsible gambling initiatives, and show how stronger regulation is required to reverse gambling’s spiralling public health costs (Korn & Shaffer, 1999; Livingstone & Adams, 2011; Markham & Young, 2015; Orford, 2005; Orford, 2010

Associations between recalled use of legal UK youth gambling products and adult disordered gambling

Background and aims: The UK allows a number of gambling products to be legally used by people under the age of 18. The aim of this study was to explore associations between recalled legal usage of five youth gambling products and adult disordered gambling. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study of 1,057 adult UK gamblers, aged 18–40. Recalled legal use of five youth gambling products (category D fruit machines, coin push machines, crane grab machines, the National Lottery, and National Lottery scratchcards) was correlated with adult disordered gambling symptoms as measured by the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Results: Recalled rates of legal engagement with each product ranged from 50.9% for Category D fruit machines to 96.6% for coin push machines. For category D fruit machines, the National Lottery, and National Lottery scratchcards, merely having legally engaged with these products as a child was associated with adult disordered gambling. Furthermore, higher levels of recalled legal youth usage with each of the five products was also associated with adult disordered gambling. Discussion and conclusions: These results relate to recent government proposals to increase the National Lottery scratchcard legal age to 18, and add to a wider literature on youth gambling and subsequent gambling-related harm

Persistence is futile: Chasing of past performance in repeated investment choices

When deciding where to invest, individuals choose mutual funds based on recent past performance, despite standard mandated disclaimers that "past performance does not guarantee future results." Investors would receive better long-term returns by choosing funds with lower fees. We explored the impact of fees and past performance on realistic mutual fund selections across three preregistered repeated-choice experiments (N = 1,600), while manipulating the presence of disclaimers between participants. Participants persistently chased past performance despite the opportunity to learn about the futility of this strategy during 60 repeated decisions with feedback. The standard regulatory-mandated disclaimer did not help most participants, compared to giving no advice at all, and was even counter-productive for participants with low levels of financial literacy. An alternative disclaimer that explicitly highlighted the advantages of fee minimization reliably helped participants. We show how individuals who lack both financial literacy and prior investment experience are the most susceptible to making poor mutual fund choices and can benefit the most from behavioral interventions such as the new disclaimer tested here. We discuss how these results generalize into real-world investment decisions, and how to design more efficient disclaimers that can be used beyond investment choices

Ice surface changes during recent glacial cycles along the Jutulstraumen and Penck Trough ice streams in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Reconstructing past ice-sheet surface changes is key to testing and improving ice-sheet models. Data constraining the past behaviour of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet are sparse, limiting our understanding of its response to past, present and future climate change. Here, we report the first cosmogenic multi-nuclide (10Be, 26Al, 36Cl) data from bedrock and erratics on nunataks along the Jutulstraumen and Penck Trough ice streams in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Spanning elevations between 741 and 2394 m above sea level, the samples have apparent exposure ages between 2 ka and 5 Ma. The highest-elevation bedrock sample indicates (near-) continuous minimum exposure since the Pliocene, with a low apparent erosion rate of 0.15 ± 0.03 m Ma−1, which is similar to results from eastern Dronning Maud Land. In contrast to studies in eastern Dronning Maud Land, however, our data show clear indications of a thicker-than-present ice sheet within the last glacial cycle, with a thinning of ∼35–120 m during the Holocene (∼2–11 ka). Difficulties in separating suitable amounts of quartz from the often quartz-poor rock-types in the area, and cosmogenic nuclides inherited from exposure prior to the last deglaciation, prevented robust thinning estimates from elevational profiles. Nevertheless, the results clearly demonstrate ice-surface fluctuations of several hundred meters between the current grounding line and the edge of the polar plateau for the last glacial cycle, a constraint that should be considered in future ice-sheet model simulations

Marketing and advertising online sports betting: a problem gambling perspective

In this article, online sports betting is explored with the objective of critically examining the potential impact on problem gambling of the emerging product features and advertising techniques used to market it. First, the extent of the issue is assessed by reviewing the sports betting prevalence rates and its association with gambling disorders, acknowledging the methodological difficulties of an unambiguous identification of what exactly constitutes sports-related gambling today. Second, the main changes in the marketization of online betting products are outlined, with specific focus on the new situational and structural characteristics that such products present along with the convergence of online betting with other adjacent products. Third, some of the most prevalent advertising master narratives employed by the betting industry are introduced, and the implications for problem gamblers and minors are discussed

Geographically touring the eastern bloc: British geography, travel cultures and the Cold War

This paper considers the role of travel in the generation of geographical knowledge of the eastern bloc by British geographers. Based on oral history and surveys of published work, the paper examines the roles of three kinds of travel experience: individual private travels, tours via state tourist agencies, and tours by academic delegations. Examples are drawn from across the eastern bloc, including the USSR, Poland, Romania, East Germany and Albania. The relationship between travel and publication is addressed, notably within textbooks, and in the Geographical Magazine. The study argues for the extension of accounts of cultures of geographical travel, and seeks to supplement the existing historiography of Cold War geography

Human papillomavirus prevalence among indigenous and non-indigenous Australian women prior to a national HPV vaccination program

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Indigenous women in Australia have a disproportionate burden of cervical cancer despite a national cervical screening program. Prior to introduction of a national human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination program, we determined HPV genotype prevalence by Indigenous status and residence in remote areas.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We recruited women aged 17 to 40 years presenting to community-based primary health services for routine Pap screening across Australia. A liquid-based cytology (LBC) cervical specimen was tested for HPV DNA using the AMPLICOR HPV-DNA test and a PGMY09/11-based HPV consensus PCR; positive specimens were typed by reverse hybridization. We calculated age-adjusted prevalence by weighting to relevant population data, and determined predictors of HPV-DNA positivity by age, Indigenous status and area of residence using logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 2152 women (655 Indigenous), prevalence of the high-risk HPV genotypes was similar for Indigenous and non-Indigenous women (HPV 16 was 9.4% and 10.5%, respectively; HPV 18 was 4.1% and 3.8%, respectively), and did not differ by age group. In younger age groups, the prevalence of other genotypes also did not differ, but in those aged 31 to 40 years, HPV prevalence was higher for Indigenous women (35% versus 22.5%; <it>P </it>< 0.001), specifically HPV clades α5 (OR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.3) and α7, excluding type 18 (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.3). In multivariate analysis, detection of any HPV genotype was strongly associated with smoking and Pap-test abnormalities, with both risk factors more common among Indigenous women.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although we found no difference in the prevalence of HPV16/18 among Australian women by Indigenous status or, for Indigenous women, residence in remote regions, differences were found in the prevalence of risk factors and some other HPV genotypes. This reinforces the importance of cervical screening as a complement to vaccination for all women, and the value of baseline data on HPV genotype prevalence by Indigenous status and residence for the monitoring of vaccine impact.</p

Betting is loving and bettors are predators: a conceptual metaphor approach to online sports betting advertising

The legalisation of online gambling in multiple territories has caused a growth in the exposure of consumers to online sports betting (OSB) advertising. While some efforts have been made to understand the visible structure of betting promotional messages, little is known about the latent components of OSB advertisements. The present study sought to address this issue by examining the metaphorical conceptualisation of OSB advertising. A sample of Spanish and British television OSB advertisements from 2014 to 2016 was analysed (N = 133). Following Lakoff and Johnson’s conceptual metaphor theory, four main structural metaphors that shaped how OSB advertising can be understood were identified: betting as (1) an act of love, (2) a market, (3) a sport, and (4) a natural environment. In general, these metaphors, which were found widely across 29 different betting brands, facilitated the perception of bettors as active players, with an executive role in the sport events bet upon, and greater control over bet outcomes

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p&lt;0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p&lt;0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Cost effectiveness thresholds: the past, the present and the future

Cost-effectiveness (CE) thresholds are being discussed more frequently and there have been many new developments in this area; however, there is a lack of understanding about what thresholds mean and their implications. This paper provides an overview of the CE threshold literature. First, the meaning of a CE threshold and the key assumptions involved (perfect divisibility, marginal increments in budget, etc.) are highlighted using a hypothetical example, and the use of historic/heuristic estimates of the threshold is noted along with their limitations. Recent endeavours to estimate the empirical value of the thresholds, both from the supply side and the demand side, are then presented. The impact on CE thresholds of future directions for the field, such as thresholds across sectors and the incorporation of multiple criteria beyond quality-adjusted life-years as a measure of ‘value’, are highlighted. Finally, a number of common issues and misconceptions associated with CE thresholds are addressed