An ensemble reconstruction of global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration 1000–1849

This paper describes a global monthly gridded Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) dataset for the period 1000 – 1849, which can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric model simulations. The reconstruction is based on existing coarse-resolution annual temperature ensemble reconstructions, which are then augmented with intra-annual and sub-grid scale variability. The intra-annual component of HadISST.2.0 and oceanic indices estimated from the reconstructed annual mean are used to develop grid-based linear regressions in a monthly stratified approach. Similarly, we reconstruct SIC using analog resampling of HadISST.2.0 SIC (1941 – 2000), for both hemispheres. Analogs are pooled in four seasons, comprising of 3-months each. The best analogs are selected based on the correlation between each member of the reconstructed SST and its target. For the period 1780 to 1849, we assimilate historical observations of SST and night-time marine air temperature from the ICOADS dataset into our reconstruction using an offline Ensemble Kalman Filter approach. The resulting dataset is physically consistent with information from models, proxies, and observations

Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina

In most cases, gauged river flow records in southern South America extend for only a few decades, hampering the detection of long-term, decadal to centennial-scale cycles and trends. Long streamflow series can be reconstructed from tree-ring records, offering the opportunity of extending the limited hydrological instrumental data to several centuries. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the Neuquén River has great importance for local and national socio-economic activities such as hydroelectric power generation, agriculture and tourism. In this study, new and updated tree-ring chronologies from Araucaria araucana and Austrocedrus chilensis are used to reconstruct the October-June mean streamflow for the Neuquén River and place the period of gauged flows (1903-2009), in a long-term, multi-century context. The reconstruction covers the period 1346-2000 AD and was developed from a network of 43 tree-ring chronologies, grouped in composite series, using a nested principal component regression approach. Analyses of the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts and pluvial events indicate that the 20th century contains some of the driest and wettest annual to decadal-scale events in the last 654 yr, but longer and more severe events were recorded in previous centuries. Blackman-Tukey and singular spectral analyses identified quasiperiodic oscillations from 3.5 to 17.5 yr. A dominant 6.8-yr cycle explains ca. 23.6% of the total variance in the Neuquén River streamflow reconstruction. Correlation analyses showed that discharges of the Neuquén River are related to variations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a measure of air mass exchanges between middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. This association is consistent with previous studies that indicate a strong correlation between rainfall in northern Patagonia and SAM variations.Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale

Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scale

Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina

In most cases, gauged river flow records in southern South America extend for only a few decades, hampering the detection of long-term, decadal to centennial-scale cycles and trends. Long streamflow series can be reconstructed from tree-ring records, offering the opportunity of extending the limited hydrological instrumental data to several centuries. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the Neuquén River has great importance for local and national socio-economic activities such as hydroelectric power generation, agriculture and tourism. In this study, new and updated tree-ring chronologies from Araucaria araucana and Austrocedrus chilensis are used to reconstruct the October-June mean streamflow for the Neuquén River and place the period of gauged flows (1903-2009), in a long-term, multi-century context. The reconstruction covers the period 1346-2000 AD and was developed from a network of 43 tree-ring chronologies, grouped in composite series, using a nested principal component regression approach. Analyses of the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts and pluvial events indicate that the 20th century contains some of the driest and wettest annual to decadal-scale events in the last 654 yr, but longer and more severe events were recorded in previous centuries. Blackman-Tukey and singular spectral analyses identified quasiperiodic oscillations from 3.5 to 17.5 yr. A dominant 6.8-yr cycle explains ca. 23.6% of the total variance in the Neuquén River streamflow reconstruction. Correlation analyses showed that discharges of the Neuquén River are related to variations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a measure of air mass exchanges between middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. This association is consistent with previous studies that indicate a strong correlation between rainfall in northern Patagonia and SAM variations.Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature- sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python

Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium

Evaluation of the reach and impact of the 100% Jeune youth social marketing program in Cameroon: findings from three cross-sectional surveys

BACKGROUND: The 100% Jeune youth social marketing program in Cameroon aims to address the high STI/HIV prevalence rates and the high levels of unwanted pregnancy. This study evaluates the 100% Jeune program, analyzing its reach and impact on condom use, level of sexual activity, and predictors of condom use. METHODS: This analysis uses data from three waves of the Cameroon Adolescent Reproductive Health Survey, implemented at 18-month intervals between 2000 and 2003. The sample is restricted to unmarried youth aged 15–24; sample sizes are 1,956 youth in 2000, 3,237 in 2002, and 3,370 in 2003. Logistic regression analyses determine trends in reproductive health behavior and their predictors, as well as estimate the effect of program exposure on these variables. All regression analyses control for differences in sample characteristics. RESULTS: A comparison of trends over the 36-month study period shows that substantial positive changes occurred among youth. Results of dose response analyses indicate that some of these positive changes in condom use and predictors of use can be attributed to the 100% Jeune youth social marketing program. The program contributed to substantial increases in condom use, including consistent use with regular partners among youth of both sexes. Among males, it also contributed to consistent use with casual partners. While condom use increased with both regular and casual partners, levels of use are higher with the latter. Observed secular trends indicate that factors besides the 100% Jeune program also contributed to the observed improvements. Despite efforts to promote abstinence, the 100% Jeune program had no effect on levels of sexual activity or number of sexual partners. Likewise, there is no evidence that reproductive health programs for youth lead to increased sexual activity. CONCLUSION: Results show that 100% Jeune successfully used a variety of mass media and interpersonal communication channels to reach a high proportion of youth throughout the intervention period. In a context in which a variety of governmental and nongovernmental partners are increasing youth-focused reproductive health programming, the 100% Jeune program reached a higher proportion of youth than did other programs. Collective efforts of multiple organizations over time can lead to improvements in adolescent reproductive health. Resources should be allocated to identify and understand predictors of abstinence and partner reduction to inform future programming decisions

Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past 2 millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments

The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudoproxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the framework of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al.,). The well-known covariance between δ 18 O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ 18 O-temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ 18 O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ 18 O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared with the simulations without data assimilation, which is especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows for models and direct observations to be reconciled by reproducing the east-west contrast in the recent temperature trends. This recent warming pattern is likely mostly driven by internal variability given the large spread of individual Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model realizations in simulating it. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the time series produced. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical method have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm this in a realistic setup

Lewis Base Mediated β-Elimination and Lewis Acid Mediated Insertion Reactions of Disilazido Zirconium Compounds

The reactivity of a series of disilazido zirconocene complexes is dominated by the migration of anionic groups (hydrogen, alkyl, halide, OTf) between the zirconium and silicon centers. The direction of these migrations is controlled by the addition of two-electron donors (Lewis bases) or two-electron acceptors (Lewis acids). The cationic nonclassical [Cp2ZrN(SiHMe2)2]+ ([2]+) is prepared from Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)2}H (1) and B(C6F5)3 or [Ph3C][B(C6F5)4], while reactions of B(C6F5)3 and Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)2}R (R = Me (3), Et (5), n-C3H7 (7), CH═CHSiMe3 (9)) provide a mixture of [2]+ and [Cp2ZrN(SiHMe2)(SiRMe2)]+. The latter products are formed through B(C6F5)3 abstraction of a β-H and R group migration from Zr to the β-Si center. Related β-hydrogen abstraction and X group migration reactions are observed for Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)2}X (X = OTf (11), Cl (13), OMe (15), O-i-C3H7 (16)). Alternatively, addition of DMAP (DMAP = 4-(dimethylamino)pyridine) to [2]+ results in coordination to a Si center and hydrogen migration to zirconium, giving the cationic complex [Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)(SiMe2DMAP)}H]+ ([19]+). Related hydrogen migration occurs from [Cp2ZrN(SiHMe2)(SiMe2OCHMe2)]+ ([18]+) to give [Cp2Zr{N(SiMe2DMAP)(SiMe2OCHMe2)}H]+ ([22]+), whereas X group migration is observed upon addition of DMAP to [Cp2ZrN(SiHMe2)(SiMe2X)]+ (X = OTf ([12]+), Cl ([14]+)) to give [Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)(SiMe2DMAP)}X]+ (X = OTf ([26]+), Cl ([20]+)). The species involved in these transformations are described by resonance structures that suggest β-elimination. Notably, such pathways are previously unknown in early metal amide chemistry. Finally, these migrations facilitate direct Si–H addition to carbonyls, which is proposed to occur through a pathway that previously had been reserved for later transition metal compounds

Generating demand and community support for sexual and reproductive health services for young people: A review of the Literature and Programs

BACKGROUND: This review investigates the effectiveness of interventions aimed at generating demand for and use of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services by young people; and interventions aimed at generating wider community support for their use. METHODS: Reports and publications were found in the peer-reviewed and grey literature through academic search engines; web searches; the bibliographies of known conference proceedings and papers; and consultation with experts. The studies were reviewed against a set of inclusion criteria and those that met these were explored in more depth. RESULTS: The evidence-base for interventions aimed at both generating demand and community support for SRH services for young people was found under-developed and many available studies do not provide strong evidence. However, the potential of several methods to increase youth uptake has been demonstrated, this includes the linking of school education programs with youth friendly services, life skills approaches and social marketing and franchising. There is also evidence that the involvement of key community gatekeepers such as parents and religious leaders is vital to generating wider community support. In general a combined multi-component approach seems most promising with several success stories to build on. CONCLUSIONS: Many areas for further research have been highlighted and there is a great need for more rigorous evaluation of programmes in this area. In particular, further evaluation of individual components within a multi-component approach is needed to elucidate the most effective interventions