Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases

The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood events that occurred during September 1992. The predictability of the events is studied for forecast times ranging from 2 to 4 days. The extent to which floods localised in time and space can be forecast at high resolution in probabilistic terms was investigated. Rainfall probability maps generated by both LEPS and ECMWF targeted ensembles are compared for different precipitation thresholds in order to assess the impact of enhanced resolution. At all considered forecast ranges, LEPS performs better, providing a more accurate description of the event with respect to the spatio-temporal location, as well as its intensity. In both flood cases, LEPS probability maps turn out to be a very valuable tool to assist forecasters to issue flood alerts at different forecast ranges. It is also shown that at the shortest forecast range, the deterministic prediction provided by the limited area model, when run in a higher-resolution configuration, provides a very accurate rainfall pattern and a good quantitative estimate of the total rainfall deployed in the flooded regions

Towards wave extraction in numerical relativity: the quasi-Kinnersley frame

The Newman-Penrose formalism may be used in numerical relativity to extract coordinate-invariant information about gravitational radiation emitted in strong-field dynamical scenarios. The main challenge in doing so is to identify a null tetrad appropriately adapted to the simulated geometry such that Newman-Penrose quantities computed relative to it have an invariant physical meaning. In black hole perturbation theory, the Teukolsky formalism uses such adapted tetrads, those which differ only perturbatively from the background Kinnersley tetrad. At late times, numerical simulations of astrophysical processes producing isolated black holes ought to admit descriptions in the Teukolsky formalism. However, adapted tetrads in this context must be identified using only the numerically computed metric, since no background Kerr geometry is known a priori. To do this, this paper introduces the notion of a quasi-Kinnersley frame. This frame, when space-time is perturbatively close to Kerr, approximates the background Kinnersley frame. However, it remains calculable much more generally, in space-times non-perturbatively different from Kerr. We give an explicit solution for the tetrad transformation which is required in order to find this frame in a general space-time.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figure

A polyphenol-rich extract from an oenological oak-derived tannin influences in vitro maturation of porcine oocytes

Tannins have been demonstrated to have antioxidant and various health benefit properties. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of an ethanol extract (TRE) of a commercial oenological tannin (Quercus robur toasted oak wood, Tan'Activ R \uae ) on female gamete using an in vitro model of pig oocyte maturation (IVM) and examining nuclear maturation, cytoplasmic maturation, intracellular GSH and ROS levels and cumulus cell steroidogenesis. To this aim, during IVM performed in medium either supplemented (IVM A) or not supplemented (IVM B) with cysteine and \u3b2-mercaptoethanol, TRE was added at different concentrations (0, 1, 5, 10, 20 \u3bcg/ml). The addition of TRE at all the concentration tested to either IVM A or IVM B, did not influence oocyte nuclear maturation. When IVM was performed in IVM A, no effect was induced on cytoplasmic maturation by TRE at the concentration of 1, 5 and 10 \u3bcg/ml, while TRE 20 \u3bcg/ml significantly reduced the penetration rate after IVF (p < 0.05) and the blastocyst rate after parthenogenetic activation (p < 0.01). Oocyte maturation in IVM B, compared to IVM A group, decreased GSH (p < 0.001) and increased ROS (p < 0.01) intracellular levels and in turn impaired oocyte cytoplasmic maturation reducing the ability to sustain male pronuclear formation after IVM (p < 0.001) and the developmental competence after parthenogenetic activation (p < 0.001). TRE supplementation to IVM B significantly reduced ROS production (5, 10, 20 \u3bcg/ml TRE) to levels similar to IVM A group, and increased GSH levels (10, 20 \u3bcg/ml TRE) compared to IVM B (p < 0.05) without reaching those of IVM A group. TRE supplementation to IVM B at the concentrations of 1, 5 and 10 \u3bcg/ml significantly improved (p < 0.001) oocyte cytoplasmic maturation enhancing the ability to sustain male pronuclear formation without reaching, however, IVM A group levels. TRE addition at all the concentration tested to both IVM A and IVM B, did not induce any effect on E2 and P4 secretion by cumulus cells suggesting that the biological effect of the ethanol extract is not exerted thought a modulation of cumulus cell steroidogenesis. In conclusion, TRE, thanks to its antioxidant activity, was partially able to reduce the negative effect of the absence of cysteine and \u3b2-mercaptoethanol in IVM B, while TRE at high concentration in IVM A was detrimental for oocyte cytoplasmic maturation underlying the importance of maintaining a balanced redox environment during oocyte maturation

The Speciality Index as invariant indicator in the BKL Mixmaster Dynamics

The speciality index, which has been mainly used in Numerical Relativity for studying gravitational waves phenomena as an indicator of the special or non-special Petrov type character of a spacetime, is applied here in the context of Mixmaster cosmology, using the Belinski-Khalatnikov-Lifshitz map. Possible applications for the associated chaotic dynamics are discussed

The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts

The predictability of the flood event affecting Soverato (Southern Italy) in September 2000 is investigated by considering three different configurations of ECMWF ensemble: the operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the targeted EPS and a high-resolution version of EPS. For each configuration, three successive runs of ECMWF ensemble with the same verification time are grouped together so as to generate a highly-populated "super-ensemble". Then, five members are selected from the super-ensemble and used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the integrations with a limited-area model, whose runs generate a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS). The relative impact of targeting the initial perturbations against increasing the horizontal resolution is assessed for the global ensembles as well as for the properties transferred to LEPS integrations, the attention being focussed on the probabilistic prediction of rainfall over a localised area. At the 108, 84 and 60- hour forecast ranges, the overall performance of the global ensembles is not particularly accurate and the best results are obtained by the high-resolution version of EPS. The LEPS performance is very satisfactory in all configurations and the rainfall maps show probability peaks in the correct regions. LEPS products would have been of great assistance to issue flood risk alerts on the basis of limited-area ensemble forecasts. For the 60-hour forecast range, the sensitivity of the results to the LEPS ensemble size is discussed by comparing a 5-member against a 51-member LEPS, where the limited-area model is nested on all EPS members. Little sensitivity is found as concerns the detection of the regions most likely affected by heavy precipitation, the probability peaks being approximately the same in both configurations

Error-analysis and comparison to analytical models of numerical waveforms produced by the NRAR Collaboration

The Numerical-Relativity-Analytical-Relativity (NRAR) collaboration is a joint effort between members of the numerical relativity, analytical relativity and gravitational-wave data analysis communities. The goal of the NRAR collaboration is to produce numerical-relativity simulations of compact binaries and use them to develop accurate analytical templates for the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration to use in detecting gravitational-wave signals and extracting astrophysical information from them. We describe the results of the first stage of the NRAR project, which focused on producing an initial set of numerical waveforms from binary black holes with moderate mass ratios and spins, as well as one non-spinning binary configuration which has a mass ratio of 10. All of the numerical waveforms are analysed in a uniform and consistent manner, with numerical errors evaluated using an analysis code created by members of the NRAR collaboration. We compare previously-calibrated, non-precessing analytical waveforms, notably the effective-one-body (EOB) and phenomenological template families, to the newly-produced numerical waveforms. We find that when the binary's total mass is ~100-200 solar masses, current EOB and phenomenological models of spinning, non-precessing binary waveforms have overlaps above 99% (for advanced LIGO) with all of the non-precessing-binary numerical waveforms with mass ratios <= 4, when maximizing over binary parameters. This implies that the loss of event rate due to modelling error is below 3%. Moreover, the non-spinning EOB waveforms previously calibrated to five non-spinning waveforms with mass ratio smaller than 6 have overlaps above 99.7% with the numerical waveform with a mass ratio of 10, without even maximizing on the binary parameters.Comment: 51 pages, 10 figures; published versio

Study protocol to investigate the effect of a lifestyle intervention on body weight, psychological health status and risk factors associated with disease recurrence in women recovering from breast cancer treatment

Background Breast cancer survivors often encounter physiological and psychological problems related to their diagnosis and treatment that can influence long-term prognosis. The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of a lifestyle intervention on body weight and psychological well-being in women recovering from breast cancer treatment, and to determine the relationship between changes in these variables and biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Methods/design Following ethical approval, a total of 100 patients will be randomly assigned to a lifestyle intervention (incorporating dietary energy restriction in conjunction with aerobic exercise training) or normal care control group. Patients randomised to the dietary and exercise intervention will be given individualised healthy eating dietary advice and written information and attend moderate intensity aerobic exercise sessions on three to five days per week for a period of 24 weeks. The aim of this strategy is to induce a steady weight loss of up to 0.5 Kg each week. In addition, the overall quality of the diet will be examined with a view to (i) reducing the dietary intake of fat to ~25% of the total calories, (ii) eating at least 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day, (iii) increasing the intake of fibre and reducing refined carbohydrates, and (iv) taking moderate amounts of alcohol. Outcome measures will include body weight and body composition, psychological health status (stress and depression), cardiorespiratory fitness and quality of life. In addition, biomarkers associated with disease recurrence, including stress hormones, estrogen status, inflammatory markers and indices of innate and adaptive immune function will be monitored. Discussion This research will provide valuable information on the effectiveness of a practical, easily implemented lifestyle intervention for evoking positive effects on body weight and psychological well-being, two important factors that can influence long-term prognosis in breast cancer survivors. However, the added value of the study is that it will also evaluate the effects of the lifestyle intervention on a range of biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Considered together, the results should improve our understanding of the potential role that lifestyle-modifiable factors could play in saving or prolonging lives

Error-analysis and comparison to analytical models of numerical waveforms produced by the NRAR Collaboration

The Numerical-Relativity-Analytical-Relativity (NRAR) collaboration is a joint effort between members of the numerical relativity, analytical relativity and gravitational-wave data analysis communities. The goal of the NRAR collaboration is to produce numerical-relativity simulations of compact binaries and use them to develop accurate analytical templates for the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration to use in detecting gravitational-wave signals and extracting astrophysical information from them. We describe the results of the first stage of the NRAR project, which focused on producing an initial set of numerical waveforms from binary black holes with moderate mass ratios and spins, as well as one non-spinning binary configuration which has a mass ratio of 10. All of the numerical waveforms are analysed in a uniform and consistent manner, with numerical errors evaluated using an analysis code created by members of the NRAR collaboration. We compare previously-calibrated, non-precessing analytical waveforms, notably the effective-one-body (EOB) and phenomenological template families, to the newly-produced numerical waveforms. We find that when the binary's total mass is ~100-200 solar masses, current EOB and phenomenological models of spinning, non-precessing binary waveforms have overlaps above 99% (for advanced LIGO) with all of the non-precessing-binary numerical waveforms with mass ratios <= 4, when maximizing over binary parameters. This implies that the loss of event rate due to modelling error is below 3%. Moreover, the non-spinning EOB waveforms previously calibrated to five non-spinning waveforms with mass ratio smaller than 6 have overlaps above 99.7% with the numerical waveform with a mass ratio of 10, without even maximizing on the binary parameters

Exploring new physics frontiers through numerical relativity

The demand to obtain answers to highly complex problems within strong-field gravity has been met with significant progress in the numerical solution of Einstein's equations - along with some spectacular results - in various setups. We review techniques for solving Einstein's equations in generic spacetimes, focusing on fully nonlinear evolutions but also on how to benchmark those results with perturbative approaches. The results address problems in high-energy physics, holography, mathematical physics, fundamental physics, astrophysics and cosmology