Setting temporal baselines for biodiversity : the limits of available monitoring data for capturing the full impact of anthropogenic pressures

Temporal baselines are needed for biodiversity, in order for the change in biodiversity to be measured over time, the targets for biodiversity conservation to be defined and conservation progress to be evaluated. Limited biodiversity information is widely recognized as a major barrier for identifying temporal baselines, although a comprehensive quantitative assessment of this is lacking. Here, we report on the temporal baselines that could be drawn from biodiversity monitoring schemes in Europe and compare those with the rise of important anthropogenic pressures. Most biodiversity monitoring schemes were initiated late in the 20th century, well after anthropogenic pressures had already reached half of their current magnitude. Setting temporal baselines from biodiversity monitoring data would therefore underestimate the full range of impacts of major anthropogenic pressures. In addition, biases among taxa and organization levels provide a truncated picture of biodiversity over time. These limitations need to be explicitly acknowledged when designing management strategies and policies as they seriously constrain our ability to identify relevant conservation targets aimed at restoring or reversing biodiversity losses. We discuss the need for additional research efforts beyond standard biodiversity monitoring to reconstruct the impacts of major anthropogenic pressures and to identify meaningful temporal baselines for biodiversity

Dynamic virtual ecosystems as a tool for detecting large-scale responses of biodiversity to environmental and land-use change

In the face of biodiversity loss, we rely upon measures of diversity to describe the health of ecosystems and to direct policymakers and conservation efforts. However, there are many complexities in natural systems that can easily confound biodiversity measures, giving misleading interpretations of the system status and, as a result, there is yet to be a consistent framework by which to measure this biodiversity loss. Ecosystems are governed by dynamic processes, such as reproduction, dispersal and competition for resources, that both shape their biodiversity and how the system responds to change. Here, we incorporate these processes into simulations of habitat and environmental change, in order to understand how well we can identify signals of biodiversity loss against the background inherent variability these processes introduce. We developed a tool for Ecosystem Simulation through Integrated Species Trait-Environment Modelling (EcoSISTEM), which models on the species-level for several sizes of ecosystem, from small islands and patches through to entire regions, and several different types of habitat. We tested a suite of traditionally-used and new biodiversity measures on simulated ecosystems against a range of different scenarios of population decline, invasion and habitat loss. We found that the response of biodiversity measures was generally stronger in larger, more heterogeneous habitats than in smaller or homogeneous habitats. We were also able to detect signals of increasing homogenisation in climate change scenarios, which contradicted the signal of increased heterogeneity and distinctiveness through habitat loss

Gymnosperms on the EDGE

Driven by limited resources and a sense of urgency, the prioritization of species for conservation has been a persistent concern in conservation science. Gymnosperms (comprising ginkgo, conifers, cycads, and gnetophytes) are one of the most threatened groups of living organisms, with 40% of the species at high risk of extinction, about twice as many as the most recent estimates for all plants (i.e. 21.4%). This high proportion of species facing extinction highlights the urgent action required to secure their future through an objective prioritization approach. The Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) method rapidly ranks species based on their evolutionary distinctiveness and the extinction risks they face. EDGE is applied to gymnosperms using a phylogenetic tree comprising DNA sequence data for 85% of gymnosperm species (923 out of 1090 species), to which the 167 missing species were added, and IUCN Red List assessments available for 92% of species. The effect of different extinction probability transformations and the handling of IUCN data deficient species on the resulting rankings is investigated. Although top entries in our ranking comprise species that were expected to score well (e.g. Wollemia nobilis, Ginkgo biloba), many were unexpected (e.g. Araucaria araucana). These results highlight the necessity of using approaches that integrate evolutionary information in conservation science

Assessing the cost of global biodiversity and conservation knowledge

Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by stan-dards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge productsfor biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decisionmakers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largelyundocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintain-ing four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List ofThreatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the WorldDatabase of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary datacollected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160million (range: US$116–204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278–308 person-years) valued at US$14 million (range US$12–16 million), were invested inthese four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financingwas provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnelcosts. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowl-edge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were notpossible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2–6.7 million). We esti-mated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines ofdata coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual mainte-nance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those tomaintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodi-versity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensiveand accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for biodiversity conservation andsustainable development. Thus, the development and implementation of plans for sustain-able long-term financing for them is critical

A function-based typology for Earth’s ecosystems

As the United Nations develops a post-2020 global biodiversity framework for the Convention on Biological Diversity, attention is focusing on how new goals and targets for ecosystem conservation might serve its vision of ‘living in harmony with nature’(1,2). Advancing dual imperatives to conserve biodiversity and sustain ecosystem services requires reliable and resilient generalizations and predictions about ecosystem responses to environmental change and management(3). Ecosystems vary in their biota(4), service provision(5) and relative exposure to risks(6), yet there is no globally consistent classification of ecosystems that reflects functional responses to change and management. This hampers progress on developing conservation targets and sustainability goals. Here we present the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Ecosystem Typology, a conceptually robust, scalable, spatially explicit approach for generalizations and predictions about functions, biota, risks and management remedies across the entire biosphere. The outcome of a major cross-disciplinary collaboration, this novel framework places all of Earth’s ecosystems into a unifying theoretical context to guide the transformation of ecosystem policy and management from global to local scales. This new information infrastructure will support knowledge transfer for ecosystem-specific management and restoration, globally standardized ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting and progress on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

The influence of geometric constraints on the colonisation, speciation and range expansion of orchids

Variation in species richness along a gradient is a well-known phenomenon and many attempts have been made to correlate this with various environmental factors. Recently, however, the potential influence of non-biological factors has also been highlighted. Species distributions might be constrained by hard geographical boundaries, such as the ocean surrounding an island, since ranges cannot extend either below the sea or above the highest point on the island. This means a greater probability of overlapping evaluational ranges, and also therefore species richness, towards middle elevations. THis has been termed the 'mid-domain effect' (MDE). The colonization and speciation of island floras has fascinated biologists since the days of Wallace and Darwin, since their isolation restricts the number of possible hypotheses to explain evolutionary events. In this study, species richness of orchids (Orchidaceae) was studied along the elevational gradient both of the Mascarene Islands and of the islands of the Gulf of Guinea. Here we show how geometric constraints can effect speciation, future colonisation and range expansion of these insular orchids

Strong phylogenetic signals in global plant bioclimatic envelopes

Aim: The environmental preferences of species are an important facet of their response to changing conditions, and these have long been thought to exhibit phylogenetic conservatism. However, these bioclimatic envelopes have not previously been imputed from climate records at the date and location of occurrence, and the strength of their phylogenetic signal has not been studied at a broad scale. Here, we combine records from global climate reconstructions with contemporaneous plant occurrences for all available terrestrial plant species and test for phylogenetic niche conservatism in plant climatic traits. Location: Global. Time period: 1901–2018. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial plants. Methods: We used >100 million plant records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to produce distributions of bioclimatic envelopes for >200,000 species, using a range of climate variables. We matched species observations to historical climate reconstructions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and compared this with WorldClim climate averages. We tested for phylogenetic signal in a supertree of plants using Pagel's λ. Finally, to investigate how well bioclimatic envelopes could be inferred for poorly known and rare species, we performed cross-validation by removing occurrence records for some common species to test how accurately their bioclimatic envelopes were estimated. Results: We found extremely strong phylogenetic signals (λ > 0.9 in some cases) for climate variables from both climate datasets, including temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. We were also able to impute missing bioclimatic envelopes for artificially removed species, having a correlation with observed data of .7. Main conclusions: We reconstructed plant climatic tolerances for >200,000 plant species historically recorded on GBIF using a technique that could be applied to any comparable biodiversity dataset. Although global information on most species is sparse, we explored methods for bias correction and data imputation, with positive results for both

Genetic variation in Delonix s.l. (Leguminosae) in Madagascar revealed by AFLPs: fragmentation, conservation status and taxonomy

The distribution of genetic diversity has potential to inform conservation efforts but is rarely incorporated when conservation status is assigned to a species. These data can be beneficial to the conservation assessment process by providing information on subpopulations, gene flow and effective population sizes, thus achieving more successful assessments. In order to obtain a better understanding of the patterns of genetic variation and their relationship to conservation in the fragmented flora of Madagascar, this study assessed genetic diversity among and within Delonix s.l. (Leguminosae) using AFLP markers. The genetic diversity of eight species of Delonix s.l. (covering 79 sample sites and 254 individuals) showed a range of values (25-61% for polymorphic loci, and 0.076-0.192 Shannon's Index). Results from an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) suggest that a majority of the genetic variance is attributed to variation within species (87%), which is also supported by a principle coordinate analysis of genetic distances between sites. The results were used to compare the genetic difference between species of different threat status and show that even closely related species with the same IUCN threat status differ in their genetic structure, probably arising from differences in life history traits, pollen and seed dispersal, and fragmentation. Species that are recently affected by habitat destruction and fragmentation are likely to be at high potential risk of genetic erosion contributing to their ongoing decline. Thus, genetic variation should be taken into consideration in conservation assessments, whenever possible, to provide accurate and targeted conservation recommendations in order to achieve more successful conservation outcomes.</p

Subpopulations, locations and fragmentation: applying IUCN red list criteria to herbarium specimen data

Despite the ecological and economic importance of plants, the majority of plant species and their conservation status are still poorly known. Based on the limited knowledge we have of many plant species, especially those in the tropics, the use of GIS techniques can give us estimates of the degree of population subdivision to be used in conservation assessments of extinction risk. This paper evaluates how best to use the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria to produce effective and consistent estimates of subpopulation structure based on specimen data available in the herbaria around the world. We assessed population structure through GIS-based analysis of the geographic distribution of collections, using herbarium specimen data for 11 species of Delonix sensu lato. We used four methods: grid adjacency, circular buffer, Rapoport's mean propinquity and alpha hull, to quantify population structure according to the terms used in the IUCN Red List: numbers of subpopulations and locations, and degree of fragmentation. Based on our findings, we recommend using the circular buffer method, as it is not dependent on collection density and allows points to be added, subtracted and/or moved without altering the buffer placement. The ideal radius of the buffer is debatable; however when dispersal characteristics of the species are unknown then a sliding scale, such as the 1/10th maximum inter-point distance, is the preferred choice, as it is species-specific and not sensitive to collection density. Such quantitative measures of population structure provide a rigorous means of applying IUCN criteria to a wide range of plant species that hitherto were inaccessible to IUCN classification.</p

How to partition diversity

Diversity measurement underpins the study of biological systems, but measures used vary across disciplines. Despite their common use and broad utility, no unified framework has emerged for measuring, comparing and partitioning diversity. The introduction of information theory into diversity measurement has laid the foundations, but the framework is incomplete without the ability to partition diversity, which is central to fundamental questions across the life sciences: How do we prioritise communities for conservation? How do we identify reservoirs and sources of pathogenic organisms? How do we measure ecological disturbance arising from climate change? The lack of a common framework means that diversity measures from different fields have conflicting fundamental properties, allowing conclusions reached to depend on the measure chosen. This conflict is unnecessary and unhelpful. A mathematically consistent framework would transform disparate fields by delivering scientific insights in a common language. It would also allow the transfer of theoretical and practical developments between fields. We meet this need, providing a versatile unified framework for partitioning biological diversity. It encompasses any kind of similarity between individuals, from functional to genetic, allowing comparisons between qualitatively different kinds of diversity. Where existing partitioning measures aggregate information across the whole population, our approach permits the direct comparison of subcommunities, allowing us to pinpoint distinct, diverse or representative subcommunities and investigate population substructure. The framework is provided as a ready-to-use R package to easily test our approach