Continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and their radiative forcing since the penultimate glacial maximum

Continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are necessary input data for transient climate simulations and their related radiative forcing important components in analyses of climate sensitivity and feedbacks. Since the available data from ice cores are discontinuous and partly ambiguious a well-documented decision process during data compilation followed by some interpolating post- processing are necessary to obtain those desired time series. Here we document our best-guess data compilation of published ice core records and recent measurements on firn air and atmospheric samples covering the period from the penultimate glacial maximum (∼156 kyr BP) to 2016 CE. A smoothing spline method is applied to translate the discrete and irregularly spaced data points in continuous time series. These splines are assumed to represent the evolution of the atmospheric mixing ratios for the three GHGs. Global-mean radiative forcing for each GHG is computed using well-established, simple formulations. Newest published age scales are used for the ice core data. While CO2 is representing an integrated global signal, we compile only a southern hemisphere record of CH4 and identify how much larger a northern hemisphere or global CH4 record might have been due to its interhemispheric gradient. Data resolution and uncertainties are considered in the spline procedure and typical cutoff periods, defining the degree of smoothing, range from 5000 years for the less resolved older parts of the records to 4 years for the densely- sampled recent years. The data sets describe seamlessly the GHG evolution on orbital and millennial time scales for glacial and glacial-interglacial variations and on centennial and decadal time scales for the anthropogenic period

Continuous flow analysis methods for sodium, magnesium and calcium detection in the Skytrain ice core

Dissolved and particulate sodium, magnesium and calcium are analyzed in ice cores to determine past changes in sea ice extent, terrestrial dust variability and atmospheric aerosol transport efficiency. They are also used to date ice cores if annual layers are visible. Multiple methods have been developed to analyze these important compounds in ice cores. Continuous flow analysis (CFA) is implemented with instruments that sample the meltstream continuously. In this study, CFA with ICP-MS (inductively coupled-plasma mass spectrometry) and fast ion chromatography (FIC) methods are compared for analysis of sodium and magnesium. ICP-MS, FIC and fluorescence methods are compared for analysis of calcium. Respective analysis of a 10 m section of the Antarctic WACSWAIN Skytrain Ice Rise ice core shows that all of the methods result in similar levels of the compounds. The ICP-MS method is the most suitable for analysis of the Skytrain ice core due to its superior precision (relative standard deviation: 1.6% for Na, 1.3% for Mg and 1.2% for Ca) and sampling frequency compared to the FIC method. The fluorescence detection method may be preferred for calcium analysis due to its higher depth resolution (1.4 cm) relative to the ICP-MS and FIC methods (~4 cm)

Reconciling ice core CO2 and land use change following New World-Old World contact

Ice core records of carbon dioxide (CO2) throughout the last 2000 years provide context for the unprecedented anthropogenic rise in atmospheric CO2 and insights into global carbon cycle dynamics. Yet the atmospheric history of CO2 remains uncertain in some time intervals. Here we present measurements of CO2 and methane (CH4) in the Skytrain ice core from 1450 to 1700 CE. Results suggest a sudden decrease in CO2 around 1610 CE in one widely used record may be an artefact of a small number of anomalously low values. Our analysis supports a more gradual decrease in CO2 of 0.5 ppm per decade from 1516 to 1670 CE, with an inferred land carbon sink of 2.6 PgC per decade. This corroborates modelled scenarios of large-scale reorganisation of land use in the Americas following New World-Old World contact, whereas a rapid decrease in CO2 at 1610 CE is incompatible with even the most extreme land-use change scenarios

Southern Ocean drives multidecadal atmospheric CO2 rise during Heinrich Stadials

The last glacial period was punctuated by cold intervals in the North Atlantic region that culminated in extensive iceberg discharge events. These cold intervals, known as Heinrich Stadials, are associated with abrupt climate shifts worldwide. Here, we present CO2 measurements from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core across Heinrich Stadials 2 to 5 at decadal-scale resolution. Our results reveal multi-decadal-scale jumps in atmospheric CO2 concentrations within each Heinrich Stadial. The largest magnitude of change (14.0 ± 0.8 ppm within 55 ± 10 y) occurred during Heinrich Stadial 4. Abrupt rises in atmospheric CO2 are concurrent with jumps in atmospheric CH4 and abrupt changes in the water isotopologs in multiple Antarctic ice cores, the latter of which suggest rapid warming of both Antarctica and Southern Ocean vapor source regions. The synchroneity of these rapid shifts points to wind-driven upwelling of relatively warm, carbon-rich waters in the Southern Ocean, likely linked to a poleward intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Using an isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model, we show that observed changes in Antarctic water isotopologs can be explained by abrupt and widespread Southern Ocean warming. Our work presents evidence for a multi-decadal- to century-scale response of the Southern Ocean to changes in atmospheric circulation, demonstrating the potential for dynamic changes in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and circulation on human timescales. Furthermore, it suggests that anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean may weaken with poleward strengthening westerlies today and into the future.Peer reviewe

Abrupt Holocene ice loss due to thinning and ungrounding in the Weddell Sea Embayment

The extent of grounded ice and buttressing by the Ronne Ice Shelf, which provides resistance to the outflow of ice streams, moderate West Antarctic Ice Sheet stability. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the ice sheet advanced and was grounded near the Weddell Sea continental shelf break. The timing of subsequent ice sheet retreat and the relative roles of ice shelf buttressing and grounding line changes remain unresolved. Here we use an ice core record from grounded ice at Skytrain Ice Rise to constrain the timing and speed of early Holocene ice sheet retreat. Measured δ18O and total air content suggest that the surface elevation of Skytrain Ice Rise decreased by about 450 m between 8.2 and 8.0 kyr before 1950 CE (±0.13 kyr). We attribute this elevation change to dynamic thinning due to flow changes induced by the ungrounding of ice in the area. Ice core sodium concentrations suggest that the ice front of this ungrounded ice shelf then retreated about 270 km (±30 km) from 7.7 to 7.3 kyr before 1950 CE. These centennial-scale changes demonstrate how quickly ice mass can be lost from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet due to changes in grounded ice without extensive ice shelf calving. Our findings both support and temporally constrain ice sheet models that exhibit rapid ice loss in the Weddell Sea sector in the early Holocene

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and last interglacial simulations

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for Tier 1 simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127,000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional CMIP6 Tier 2 and Tier 3 sensitivity experiments of PMIP4, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically

The ST22 chronology for the Skytrain Ice Rise ice core – Part 2: An age model to the last interglacial and disturbed deep stratigraphy

We present an age model for the 651 m deep ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise, situated inland of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The top 2000 years have previously been dated using age markers interpolated through annual layer counting. Below this, we align the Skytrain core to the AICC2012 age model using tie points in the ice and air phase, and we apply the Paleochrono program to obtain the best fit to the tie points and glaciological constraints. In the gas phase, ties are made using methane and, in critical sections, δ18Oair; in the ice phase ties are through 10Be across the Laschamps event and through ice chemistry related to long-range dust transport and deposition. This strategy provides a good outcome to about 108 ka (∼ 605 m). Beyond that there are signs of flow disturbance, with a section of ice probably repeated. Nonetheless values of CH4 and δ18Oair confirm that part of the last interglacial (LIG), from about 117–126 ka (617–627 m), is present and in chronological order. Below this there are clear signs of stratigraphic disturbance, with rapid oscillation of values in both the ice and gas phase at the base of the LIG section, below 628 m. Based on methane values, the warmest part of the LIG and the coldest part of the penultimate glacial are missing from our record. Ice below 631 m appears to be of age > 150 ka

Two interglacials: scientific objectives and experimental designs for CMIP6 and PMIP4 Holocene and last interglacial simulations

Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of paleoclimate simulations in the present phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Equilibrium simulations of the mid-50 Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127,000 years before present) are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land-sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4), to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically

A 156 kyr smoothed history of the atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and their radiative forcing

Continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4, and N2O are necessary input data for transient climate simulations, and their associated radiative forcing represents important components in analyses of climate sensitivity and feedbacks. Since the available data from ice cores are discontinuous and partly ambiguous, a well-documented decision process during data compilation followed by some interpolating post-processing is necessary to obtain those desired time series. Here, we document our best possible data compilation of published ice core records and recent measurements on firn air and atmospheric samples spanning the interval from the penultimate glacial maximum ( ∼  156 kyr BP) to the beginning of the year 2016 CE. We use the most recent age scales for the ice core data and apply a smoothing spline method to translate the discrete and irregularly spaced data points into continuous time series. These splines are then used to compute the radiative forcing for each GHG using well-established, simple formulations. We compile only a Southern Hemisphere record of CH4 and discuss how much larger a Northern Hemisphere or global CH4 record might have been due to its interpolar difference. The uncertainties of the individual data points are considered in the spline procedure. Based on the given data resolution, time-dependent cutoff periods of the spline, defining the degree of smoothing, are prescribed, ranging from 5000 years for the less resolved older parts of the records to 4 years for the densely sampled recent years. The computed splines seamlessly describe the GHG evolution on orbital and millennial timescales for glacial and glacial–interglacial variations and on centennial and decadal timescales for anthropogenic times. Data connected with this paper, including raw data and final splines, are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.871273

Compilations and splined-smoothed calculations of continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and their radiative forcing since the penultimate glacial maximum

Continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4, and N2O are necessary input data for transient climate simulations and their related radiative forcing important components in analyses of climate sensitivity and feedbacks. Since the available data from ice cores are discontinuous and partly ambiguous a well-documented decision process during data compilation followed by some interpolating post-processing are necessary to obtain those desired time series. Here we document our best-guess data compilation of published ice core records and recent measurements on firn air and atmospheric samples covering the time window from the penultimate glacial maximum (approx. 156 kyr BP) to 2016 CE. A smoothing spline method is applied to translate the discrete and irregularly spaced data points into continuous time series. These splines are assumed to represent the evolution of the atmospheric mixing ratios for the three GHGs. Global-mean radiative forcing for each GHG is computed using well-established, simple formulations. Newest published age scales are used for the ice core data. While CO2 is representing an integrated global signal, we compile only a southern hemisphere record of CH4 and identify how much larger a northern hemisphere or global CH4 record might have been due to its interhemispheric gradient. Data resolution and uncertainties are considered in the spline procedure and typical cutoff periods, defining the degree of smoothing, range from 5000 years for the less resolved older parts of the records to 4 years for the densely-sampled recent years. The data sets describe seamlessly the GHG evolution on orbital and millennial time scales for glacial and glacial-interglacial variations and on centennial and decadal time scales for anthropogenic times