Mixed layer temperature response to the southern annular mode: Mechanisms and model representation

Previous studies have shown that simulated sea surface temperature (SST) responses to the southern annular mode (SAM) in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) climate models compare poorly to the observed response. The reasons behind these model inaccuracies are explored. The ocean mixed layer heat budget is examined in four of the CMIP3 models and by using observations- reanalyses. The SST response to the SAM is predominantly driven by sensible and latent heat flux and Ekman heat transport anomalies. The radiative heat fluxes play a lesser but nonnegligible role. Errors in the simulated SST responses are traced back to deficiencies in the atmospheric response to the SAM. The models exaggerate the surface wind response to the SAM leading to large unrealistic Ekman transport anomalies. During the positive phase of the SAM, this results in excessive simulated cooling in the 40°-65°S latitudes. Problems with the simulated wind stress responses, which relate partly to errors in the simulated winds themselves and partly to the transfer coefficients used in the models, are a key cause of the errors in the SST response. In the central Pacific sector (90°-150°W), errors arise because the simulated SAM is too zonally symmetric. Substantial errors in the net shortwave radiation are also found, resulting from a poor repre- sentation of the changes in cloud cover associated with the SAM. The problems in the simulated SST re- sponses shown by this study are comparable to deficiencies previously identified in the CMIP3 multimodel mean. Therefore, it is likely that the deficiencies identified here are common to other climate models

Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks in a comparison of the global warming effects of greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases other than CO2 make a significant contribution to human-induced climate change, and multi-gas mitigation strategies are cheaper to implement than those which limit CO2 emissions alone. Most practical multi-gas mitigation strategies require metrics to relate the climate warming effects of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Global warming potential (GWP), defined as the ratio of time-integrated radiative forcing of a particular gas to that of CO2 following a unit mass emission, is the metric used in the Kyoto Protocol, and we define mean global temperature change potential (MGTP) as an equivalent metric of the temperature response. Here we show that carbon–climate feedbacks inflate the GWPs and MGTPs of methane and nitrous oxide by ~ 20% in coupled carbon–climate model simulations of the response to a pulse of 50 × 1990 emissions, due to a warming-induced release of CO2 from the land biosphere and ocean. The magnitude of this effect is expected to be dependent on the model, but it is not captured at all by the analytical models usually used to calculate metrics such as GWP. We argue that the omission of carbon cycle dynamics has led to a low bias of uncertain but potentially substantial magnitude in metrics of the global warming effect of other greenhouse gases, and we suggest that the carbon–climate feedback should be considered when greenhouse gas metrics are calculated and applied

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming

The role of eddies in the Southern Ocean temperature response to the southern annular mode

© Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] role of eddies in modulating the Southern Ocean response to the southern annular mode (SAM) is examined, using an ocean model run at multiple resolutions from coarse to eddy resolving. The high-resolution versions of the model show an increase in eddy kinetic energy that peaks 2–3 yr after a positive anomaly in the SAM index. Previous work has shown that the instantaneous temperature response to the SAM is characterized by predominant cooling south of 45°S and warming to the north. At all resolutions the model captures this temperature response. This response is also evident in the coarse-resolution implementation of the model with no eddy mixing parameterization, showing that eddies do not play an important role in the instantaneous response. On the longer time scales, an intensification of the mesoscale eddy field occurs, which causes enhanced poleward heat flux and drives warming south of the oceanic Polar Front. This warming is of greater magnitude and occurs for a longer period than the initial cooling response. The results demonstrate that this warming is surface intensified and strongest in the mixed layer. Non-eddy-resolving models are unable to capture the delayed eddy-driven temperature response to the SAM. The authors therefore question the ability of coarse-resolution models, such as those commonly used in climate simulations, to accurately represent the full impacts of the SAM on the Southern Ocean

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: Quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This “zero emissions commitment” (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget – a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) – a branch from the 1 % CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation – with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available

Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming

Climate projections1–3 and observations over recent decades4,5 indicate that precipitation in subtropical latitudes declines in response to anthropogenic warming, with significant implications for food production and population sustainability. However, this conclusion is derived from emissions scenarios with rapidly increasing radiative forcing to the year 21001,2, which may represent very different conditions from both past and future ‘equilibrium’ warmer climates. Here, we examine multi-century future climate simulations and show that in the Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying ceases soon after global temperature stabilizes. Our results suggest that twenty-first century Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying is not a feature of warm climates per se, but is primarily a response to rapidly rising forcing and global temperatures, as tropical sea-surface temperatures rise more than southern subtropical sea-surface temperatures under transient warming. Subtropical drying may therefore be a temporary response to rapid warming: as greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures stabilize, Southern Hemisphere subtropical regions may experience positive precipitation trends